How much longer will this bear market go on for?

coastline

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

A weeks of gains, a month, 6 months? a year? Or is it when an index is no longer 20% down YTD?

Surely, by the time the "savvy" market timer feels ready to re-invest they've missed it or run the risk of the bear market not being at the bottom?

General decade long trends and a forecast of market gains reverting to the mean over time may be able to be called, such as the general expectation that gains in the fore-coming decade will be lower than the previous QE decade (subject to any black swan events that may occur) but to be more precise than that surely requires some luck or clairvoyance?

I would say market timers and short-term traders are two different approaches. Traders are buying and selling the wave action and much is dependent on TA and the tea leaves. Historical data and indicators play a part and it's probably this data what market timers use. EG valuations such as P/E ratios and relationships with bond yields.
I don't think traders are predicting the market bottom as they are in the market in all weathers. There's waves in every situation to trade. What's interesting in recent months is the rise in bond yields and the levels of the equity markets. Look at the SP500 in June when it was at 3600 the US 10 Year Bond stood at 3.5% yield . Today the SP 500 is at 3900 and the bond yield over 4.0%. You could argue a bottom is forming as it's absorbing even higher bond yields. Maybe they think inflation is at least levelling off. ?

US500 | SPX - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart (tradingeconomics.com)

United States Government Bond 10Y - 2022 Data - 1912-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

Profit margins are forecast to hold up reasonably well next year . No major recession ?

Ff3Pq3hWYAM_9_d (900×653) (twimg.com)

Valuations aren't exactly extreme either . Forward P/E of 15 which is as low as year 2014. All depends on inflation , FED rates and the possibility of a recession ? We can only wait and see but those June and October lows on the SP500 are holding up . Waiting for the market timers to appear ?

Ffx4__gWYAA3A-b (900×652) (twimg.com)

adindas

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market, high volatility to continue.

But when you are waiting at this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

adindas

coastline said:

I would say market timers and short-term traders are two different approaches. Traders are buying and selling the wave action and much is dependent on TA and the tea leaves.

Reading tea leaves, similar to reading tarot, stars in horoscope is interesting isn't it ??

I know who use this term in this MSE forum in the first instance. , instead of using the term candle stick charts, indicators, etc

arnoldy

I think one thing that makes this bear market difficult is the relentless nature of it. If you look at the FTSE250 prices have been falling since early Sept 2021 - nearly 14 months.

In contrast with the pandemic early 2020 the FTSE250 fell back sharply and then rose in a sustained manner after only 2 months.

On the other hand, the 2007 crisis resulted in the FTSE250 falling for 18 months: the difficult 2000-2003 period falling for 27 months. 

Bearing in mind valuations are so much better than 2000, my hunch is we should be more like the global financial crisis, so another 4 months or so of falls until Spring 2023 (but it also needs the inflation/interest rate news improving).

GSP

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

And do you think changing most of your investments (13) which have fallen over the last year is a good time to do now, or just sit tight and wait until they bounce back, hopefully?

With changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better, and is there a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones?

InvesterJones

GSP said:

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

And do you think changing most of your investments (13) which have fallen over the last year is a good time to do now, or just sit tight and wait until they bounce back, hopefully?

With changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better, and is there a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones?

As always, it depends what fits your desired strategy going forwards - short term recent performance is of almost no consequence. If you thought your original portfolio was right for you in terms of assets and value, then the fact it's even better value now would make you want to stick with it going forward.

GazzaBloom

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

I have been DCA via monthly pension contributions since 2003 (was paying into a DB pension prior to that). All that I have done this year is increase my monthly contributions significantly to brim the annual allowance and will continue to pay in as much as I can until I finish working regardless of whether the market is up, down or sideways.

adindas

GSP said:

adindas said:

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market to continue.

But when you are waiting in this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

And do you think changing most of your investments (13) which have fallen over the last year is a good time to do now, or just sit tight and wait until they bounce back, hopefully?

With changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better, and is there a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones?

I do both Long Term Investing and Short Term Trading. For long term holding, that is where majority of my investment, they are in index funds, well known fund. and I do not own any bond. I have not sold any of them. But in total I am still green to this days, this might lend to "enhanced" DCA strategy. E.g DCA combined with TAs and Stock market news.

When you hear the Mega-cap stock is about to report missing earning expectation, downgrading their earning guidance, the indicators have not shown extreme fear, the FED is about announce in interest hike you have better wait until they do it. So you get a higher chance to get it cheaper. I DCAs as low as £200. I trade as low as £10 but no fees. So to answer this question, no I do not change my investment.

I fully believe the investment like S&P500,VLS 100% Equity will be bouncing back to ATH. Noone knows where the bottom is but we eventually will hit the bottom. That is why the DCA is frequently mentioned by the investing experts, as a smart strategy in the bear market. I have posted a few links about this in the past. Even proven investors such as Benjamin Graham the father of Value investing are recommending it. In the past when a person mentioned about DCA in favour of lump-sum investing in the bear market, they would get heavily attacked by the same group of people in this forum as this would mean timing the market. The wording that many people take in their face value.

I fully believe many people will agree with you that changing investments there is no guarantee they are going to do any better. Nothing is guaranteed in the stock market. If this is guaranteed we will all become a multi millionaires.

And regarding the a chance these new ones won’t bounce back as much as they fell less than the existing ones. It is always possibility. In the investing the analyst call it the "fallen Angel" a good example of this is GE (General Electric) once was one of the best US companies now they never reach their glory their historical ATH. For that reason watching the news having an investment thesis is important before throwing the money. People do not sell it just because of the market volatility. People will only sell it when there is a fundamental change.

Above all, in the forum like this,the people will need to do their own DDs, do what you believe, you take your win you take take your own loss.

Hexane

GazzaBloom said:

"Don't do something, just stand there" John C Bogle

I get better and better at this, the more I practice doing it.

Hexane

Millyonare said:

aroominyork said:

Terry Smith: 

Millyonare said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said:

Right now, the IMF says the UK is the fastest-growing G7 economy in 2022, with the 2nd lowest debt. That is good news.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

Yes, that is what our government say too. If you read the link, it explains why it happened. Except that it was 2021, we are in 2022 now, so the figures are not out yet.
It was because our economy shrank the most in 2020.

Nice try 😉

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fey_qgZXoAIGxCO?format=jpg

Except, as we have been told manifold times, we are about heading to the bottom of that graph.

We love nothing more than to forecast recessions, housing falls, unemployment, and they often don't happen.

Funny that. As a homeowner and someone who owns large amounts of stocks, I greatly enjoy reading discussions where people claim that the housing market is about to implode and that the stock market is going to drop 80%. As someone who owns no Bitcoin, I greatly enjoy reading discussions where people claim that Bitcoin is about to quadruple in price and that people without any Bitcoin will be the new poor. (These latter types of discussion are more difficult to find now, though, on this forum anyway.)