How much longer will this bear market go on for?

sevenhills

IanManc said:
To quote the Office of National Statistics:

"Exports to EU countries were at £17.4 billion in July 2022, the highest level since records began in January 1997."

UK trade - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

There was a blip around 2006, not sure what that was.

Martico

Anyone able to find trade stats with inflation stripped out? Such as by volume or a real index.

aroominyork

Pick your evidence/stats/perspective. "Brexit has not had the expected effect of narrowly reducing exports to the EU, but has instead more broadly reduced how open and competitive Britain’s economy is, which will reduce productivity and wages in the decade ahead, according to new joint Resolution Foundation and LSE research." https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/brexit-has-damaged-britains-competitiveness-and-will-make-us-poorer-in-the-decade-ahead/#:~:text=Brexit has not had the,research published today (Wednesday).

While most people will find the evidence to support how they voted, the polling shows that many more Brexit voters than remain voters have changed their views.

aroominyork

IanManc said:

aroominyork said:

Pick your evidence/stats/perspective. "Brexit has not had the expected effect of narrowly reducing exports to the EU, but has instead more broadly reduced how open and competitive Britain’s economy is, which will reduce productivity and wages in the decade ahead, according to new joint Resolution Foundation and LSE research." https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/brexit-has-damaged-britains-competitiveness-and-will-make-us-poorer-in-the-decade-ahead/#:~:text=Brexit has not had the,research published today (Wednesday).

While most people will find the evidence to support how they voted, the polling shows that many more Brexit voters than remain voters have changed their views.

The "polling" and "research" you quote doesn't alter the veracity of the ONS statistics that show your assertion about the UK's exports to the EU was wrong.

You have not read it closely. In any case, I should not have mentioned Brexit if I was not interested in getting into a debate which, on this site, is likely to be no more than superficial. You may, of course, say I am only withdrawing because I realise you are right (which you are not).

masonic

aroominyork said:

IanManc said:

aroominyork said:

Pick your evidence/stats/perspective. "Brexit has not had the expected effect of narrowly reducing exports to the EU, but has instead more broadly reduced how open and competitive Britain’s economy is, which will reduce productivity and wages in the decade ahead, according to new joint Resolution Foundation and LSE research." https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/brexit-has-damaged-britains-competitiveness-and-will-make-us-poorer-in-the-decade-ahead/#:~:text=Brexit has not had the,research published today (Wednesday).

While most people will find the evidence to support how they voted, the polling shows that many more Brexit voters than remain voters have changed their views.

The "polling" and "research" you quote doesn't alter the veracity of the ONS statistics that show your assertion about the UK's exports to the EU was wrong.

You have not read it closely. In any case, I should not have mentioned Brexit if I was not interested in getting into a debate which, on this site, is likely to be no more than superficial. You may, of course, say I am only withdrawing because I realise you are right (which you are not).

This issue has been raised in this thread a couple of weeks back and you can download really detailed data about trade over time (large excel files with monthly breakdowns). It is what IanManc says it is. Martico raises an important point about inflation adjustment, which I don't think is available in a handy dataset or chart, but can be calculated using the aforementioned data if you have the time and inclination. The decline in the pound (below purchasing power parity) will also be responsible for some of the nominal uplift. I haven't done so myself, but suspect we won't be at record levels in inflation adjusted terms, but the message still seems to be that businesses are broadly managing to cope and work around the additional red tape after some initial difficulties. We're not a big exporter, and in fact our trade deficit is about the highest it's ever been, so the record nominal export figure is a silver lining worthy of mention. I know Mr Woodford is persona non grata around these parts, but the independent report he commissioned all those years ago doesn't seem to have done so badly the predictions it made in this area.

GazzaBloom

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

A weeks of gains, a month, 6 months? a year? Or is it when an index is no longer 20% down YTD?

Surely, by the time the "savvy" market timer feels ready to re-invest they've missed it or run the risk of the bear market not being at the bottom?

General decade long trends and a forecast of market gains reverting to the mean over time may be able to be called, such as the general expectation that gains in the fore-coming decade will be lower than the previous QE decade (subject to any black swan events that may occur) but to be more precise than that surely requires some luck or clairvoyance?

masonic

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

A weeks of gains, a month, 6 months? a year? Or is it when an index is no longer 20% down YTD?

Surely, by the time the "savvy" market timer feels ready to re-invest they've missed it or run the risk of the bear market not being at the bottom?

General decade long trends and a forecast of market gains reverting to the mean over time may be able to be called, such as the general expectation that gains in the fore-coming decade will be lower than the previous QE decade (subject to any black swan events that may occur) but to be more precise than that surely requires some luck or clairvoyance?

Often the end of a bear market is defined as the point that the price of your index of choice rises above your X day moving average of choice. It can also be defined as when the market has risen 20% from its previous low (signalling a bull market). Neither provide for an optimum re-entry point and neither mean that the market will continue rising. The best way to avoid bear markets is never to invest as you cannot predict when the next one will come along.

We're fortunate on this occasion that we've been given a rock solid prediction of an 80% YTD drop happening within the next couple of months. With the S&P500 down just 18.7% YTD, it's going to be carnage between now and the end of this year!

coastline

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

A weeks of gains, a month, 6 months? a year? Or is it when an index is no longer 20% down YTD?

Surely, by the time the "savvy" market timer feels ready to re-invest they've missed it or run the risk of the bear market not being at the bottom?

General decade long trends and a forecast of market gains reverting to the mean over time may be able to be called, such as the general expectation that gains in the fore-coming decade will be lower than the previous QE decade (subject to any black swan events that may occur) but to be more precise than that surely requires some luck or clairvoyance?

I would say market timers and short-term traders are two different approaches. Traders are buying and selling the wave action and much is dependent on TA and the tea leaves. Historical data and indicators play a part and it's probably this data what market timers use. EG valuations such as P/E ratios and relationships with bond yields.
I don't think traders are predicting the market bottom as they are in the market in all weathers. There's waves in every situation to trade. What's interesting in recent months is the rise in bond yields and the levels of the equity markets. Look at the SP500 in June when it was at 3600 the US 10 Year Bond stood at 3.5% yield . Today the SP 500 is at 3900 and the bond yield over 4.0%. You could argue a bottom is forming as it's absorbing even higher bond yields. Maybe they think inflation is at least levelling off. ?

US500 | SPX - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart (tradingeconomics.com)

United States Government Bond 10Y - 2022 Data - 1912-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

Profit margins are forecast to hold up reasonably well next year . No major recession ?

Ff3Pq3hWYAM_9_d (900×653) (twimg.com)

Valuations aren't exactly extreme either . Forward P/E of 15 which is as low as year 2014. All depends on inflation , FED rates and the possibility of a recession ? We can only wait and see but those June and October lows on the SP500 are holding up . Waiting for the market timers to appear ?

Ffx4__gWYAA3A-b (900×652) (twimg.com)

adindas

GazzaBloom said:

Changing the subject back to the original opening post asking how much longer this bear market will go on for. 

I wonder how market timers (not me, that's for sure) know when a bear market is over?

The way I see it is to see what cause this bear market in the first instance, a few to name : High inflation, the highest since the last 40 years, Global Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, war in Ukraine which also  lead tot the global energy supply, food supply shortages (Ukraine and Russia Are both one of the largest grain exporters in the whole).

So until of of these under control, back to normal, the inflation rate, interest rate is under control around 2%, expect the bear market, high volatility to continue.

But when you are waiting at this moment, the boat might have sailed, you missed the boat. You will be missing the best days in the stock market which in majority of cases come short after the market crash. Do a research find out what missing the best days in the stock market will mean to your investment return.

This is not a suggestion to keep investing or doing DCA in a smaller chunk, this is just personal opinion. But this is also the opinion of many investing experts, authoritative sources.

The best thing to do is DYOR and make your own decision. It is your own hard earning cash you are investing.

adindas

coastline said:

I would say market timers and short-term traders are two different approaches. Traders are buying and selling the wave action and much is dependent on TA and the tea leaves.

Reading tea leaves, similar to reading tarot, stars in horoscope is interesting isn't it ??

I know who use this term in this MSE forum in the first instance. , instead of using the term candle stick charts, indicators, etc