EV Discussion thread

JKenH

As some of you will be aware Tesla published its year end results last night. A choice of two reports here, depending whether you want good news or not so good news. The stock market thinks it’s actually not great news as Tesla’s shares are down 9.65% at the time of writing. 

Tesla Energy Storage & Solar Profits Nearly Quadrupled in 2023

The big headlines out of the Tesla conference call that just took place are that Tesla sales growth is slowing down. However, that was basically expected and I’ve talked about it at length in recent months. Then there’s also the note that the Tesla Model Y was the best selling vehicle in the world in 2023, but I’ve written about that several times as well. What jumped out to me from the shareholder letter was that Tesla’s energy generation and energy storage business is booming. That said, there’s some nuance to this.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/24/tesla-energy-storage-solar-profits-nearly-quadrupled-in-2024/

Tesla hit by first ever drop in annual profits amid electric car price war

Tesla has recorded its first ever drop in annual profits as it suffers the effects of an electric vehicle price war orchestrated by its chief executive, Elon Musk.

The company revealed on Wednesday night that operating profits in the fourth quarter of the year had almost halved to $2.1bn (£1.7bn).

It was the second straight drop and meant for 2023 as a whole, operating income fell by 35pc to $8.9bn, the first fall since the company turned profitable in 2020. The figures exclude a one-off tax gain that meant Tesla’s statutory profits rose sharply.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/24/tesla-hit-by-first-ever-drop-in-annual-profits-amid-electri/

QrizB

JKenH said:

How about this? Mercedes EQC 2023 73 plate with 16 miles on the odometer. Based on other adverts I believe the RRP was £79,690 for this model.  That’s a £33.6k reduction.

Taking this in conjunction with your other posts re. nearly-new EVs, does it mean it's cheaper for the average Joe and Josephine to buy a pre-reg than to lease one on salary sacrifice?

(I think it does, but that assumes the salsac scheme pays list price and I don't know if that's a fair assumption.)

MeteredOut

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

How about this? Mercedes EQC 2023 73 plate with 16 miles on the odometer. Based on other adverts I believe the RRP was £79,690 for this model.  That’s a £33.6k reduction.

Taking this in conjunction with your other posts re. nearly-new EVs, does it mean it's cheaper for the average Joe and Josephine to buy a pre-reg than to lease one on salary sacrifice?

(I think it does, but that assumes the salsac scheme pays list price and I don't know if that's a fair assumption.)

I think it depends on the employer/scheme. I've seen some wildly varying monthly payments for effectively the same car but for people with different employers but using the same quotation basis (tax bracket etc).

As far as the EQC is concerned, it has been discontinued (as of last June) - hence the drop in 2nd hand prices - so that particular car is unlikely to be available via salary sacrifice (it isn't via mine - I've just checked), and those EVs that are available both via SS and 2nd hand are unlikely to have as much of % saving.

JKenH

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

How about this? Mercedes EQC 2023 73 plate with 16 miles on the odometer. Based on other adverts I believe the RRP was £79,690 for this model.  That’s a £33.6k reduction.

Taking this in conjunction with your other posts re. nearly-new EVs, does it mean it's cheaper for the average Joe and Josephine to buy a pre-reg than to lease one on salary sacrifice?

(I think it does, but that assumes the salsac scheme pays list price and I don't know if that's a fair assumption.)

TBH I don’t know. I imagine it’s quite complicated as @MeteredOut says. Looking at the figures for the EQC quoted, £600/month (presumably PCP) is going to be the same as £1000/month gross for a 40% taxpayer on SalSac and of course there’s the deposit which spread over 3 years is an additional £55/month for the PCP buyer. 

Reed_Richards

paul991 said:

nice to see some cheap affordable Ev,s on the market now 

I presume this is sarcasm but with some of the comments on this thread I can't be sure.  

JKenH

There could me more price cuts on the way which could further reduce used values (see article below). Whether this is a good or bad thing depends on one’s perspective. If you are in the market for a new car then it’s a good thing. If you recently bought an EV (new or used) with your own cash then it’s not so good to see falling prices. Based on recent SMMT sales figures the vast majority of new EV sales are to fleets. The majority of those that buy privately use PCP finance where you are protected against falling residual values but can profit if prices rise. Only a few of us splash out our own cash so most existing “owners” have nothing to worry about from falling prices on new or nearly new EVs.. 

If you want to see more EVs on the road then price cuts must surely be a good thing as lease and PCP prices fall. Maybe a few private buyers will hold out, after seeing prices falling, hoping they will fall further but the pattern of private ownership, which largely (at least at the 0-5 year old end of the market) based on finance contracts of some sort, will dictate when people change their car. The choice between EV and ICE will then largely boil down to affordability so lower EV prices should lead to more EV sales.

I think the only people disappointed about used EV prices falling below ICE car prices are those who predicted 3 or 4 years ago that ICE cars would be worthless by now.

And what will happen to ICE car prices? If manufacturers are limited to how many they can sell they won’t want to discount them to compete with EVs. They need to sell 22% EVs this year compared to around 16/17% last year. So will they put up the prices of ICE cars to force people into EVs and make enough profit on them to pay the £15k a year fines for any shortfall. 

OEMs are between a rock and a hard place. They either have to cut EV prices to sell more and lose even more money on each car or just hope they can make enough on ICE cars to pay the fines and stay afloat. If Ford are reportedly losing more than $30k on every EV sold (other manufacturers will maybe be doing the same) then one could understand if they just decided instead to take a hit on the ICE cars they sell. Perhaps that’# why they’ve canned the low margin Fiesta and Focus to concentrate on more profitable ICE models. 

UK car prices ‘bloodbath’ could be coming, as EV makers fight for sales

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/consumer-news/362086/uk-car-price-bloodbath-could-be-coming-ev-makers-fight-sales

paul991

yes well until prices get in the range where the majority of people can afford them ,EVs wont get to be the norm,(not far off now) .I think these forums are more  swayed by business users and the Tesla fan  club

noitsnotme

I (business) leased my Model Y RWD back in July 2023 from Teslas preferred lease company.  I've just seen that Select Car Leasing are offering the same spec on a business lease for roughly 13% less than I am paying on the same terms.

The personal lease prices are obviously cheaper too but I didn't make a note of those in July so don't know if the reduction is the same.

Magnitio

paul991 said:

yes well until prices get in the range where the majority of people can afford them ,EVs wont get to be the norm,(not far off now) .I think these forums are more  swayed by business users and the Tesla fan  club

What do you consider to be "in the range"? With the current discounts, new EV prices in some categories are very similar to ICE and a few are under £20k. Prices of a few nearly new cars are less than £15k.

paul991

15 k for very low mileage is getting there