EV Discussion thread

Martyn1981

michaels said:

I would have thought you could probably build a cheap small third world suitable ev cheaper than an ice (aren't they less than 10k use in China?) and similarly having your own PV to charge might be cheaper and more reliable than the grid if you are paying Alibaba prices for the panels and invertor and no MCAS install prices

Yep, it's happening already as you say. The cheap vehicles may be basic, but so are the ICEV's at that level. So with super (ultra?) cheap BEV's rolling out in some areas, it's already over.

Your second part is actually what convinced me years ago, more so than the $5k BEV's in China - PV and battery storage is simply getting too cheap too fast, allowing for micro-grids to be established, almost anywhere in poorer countries. That may be far, far, far from perfect for transport, but compared to trucking in petrol/diesel, it's competitive, and only going in one direction.

If China was dragging its heels, then that might have been an issue, especially for Asia, but as they are one of the leading driving forces for BEV's, it looks like things are now unstoppable.

PEV's should take 50%+ of the new sales market by 2030, largely BEV's. Whether that's against current total sales, or helped by the Osborne Effect, as ICEV sales fall, we'll have to see. The vicious circle will now be kicking in for ICEV's as production falls, and unit costs rise.

Plus of course, as BEV sales rise, it will make it ever easier for nations around the World to introduce more stringent legislation to deal with both AGW emissions, and localised pollution.

Only a very rough guide, but PEV sales have been rising approx 5%pa, to about 19% (13% BEV) last November, not sure if full numbers are in yet for December and therefore 2023 as a whole. I assume 2023 will be lower than those November figures, as the PEV sales keep growing.

Martyn1981

paul991 said:

Third world  countries are more likely to use mopeds with battery swap. At  what point do petrol stations start to thin out due to viability loss of trade

Norway has started to see a reduction in petrol sales now that about a quarter of their fleet are BEV's, and last year a number of speculative reports came out that China may reach peak oil in 2024 ..... but I stress, speculative, plus it's always worth taking Chinese data with a pinch of salt.

JKenH

What are the drivers for increased EV adoption? Is it dependent on carrot and stick policies or will there come a point when the general public, here and elsewhere, buy EVs on merit? Last year in the UK EV sales (as a %) were flat despite generous tax breaks for businesses and individuals. Why didn’t sales increase? A similar pattern is being seen across Europe as incentives are withdrawn. 

Compared to other transformational technologies, such as CD players or digital cameras which didn’t get any state assistance, EVs are only managing to engage a small sector of car buyers yet shouldn’t EV sales be entering the steep section of the S curve by now - not flatlining? EVs do have one big advantage over CD players and digital cameras in that cars are routinely changed, typically on a 2-4year cycle, but this isn’t reflected in sales. You didn’t routinely replace your record player and swapping to a CD player made one’s existing record collection obsolete - it was a massive investment therefore to switch to CDs yet the public did because of the considerable step forward in user convenience. Similarly with digital cameras - 35mm cameras were not routinely replaced but users appreciated being able to instantly review and print their photos - not having to wait until the film was full then get it processed. Cars are however routinely changed particularly new cars bought on PCP,  so the opportunity to try a new technology comes round routinely yet by and large was passed over to stick with the old, despite there being no legacy costs to change as you get with switching to a CD player. Who were the 9% of private new car buyers who bought an EV this year? Probably someone who has previously bought an EV and wants more range. Where are the new EV buyers?

I think the reason individuals aren’t russjing out to buy EVs like they did CD players and digital cameras, is that, while CDs and digital cameras offered transformational changes to user convenience, EVs don’t do that. They do essentially the same job as an ICE car. Some will say they do it better/more conveniently while others will argue the opposite. The argument on costs is moot also. 

Personally I think EVs have been, and still are, being oversold and this is leading to disappointment that is reflected in the mainstream media and on social media, producing negative media coverage. It is not only the SMMT, the car companies, the motoring press but also some EV owners themselves who are painting a rosier picture of EV ownership than the reality. This is perhaps why we had the situation in Chicago where a significant number of taxi drivers seem to have been “sold” Tesla’s which were patently unsuitable for them. In any other industry there might be a call for an mis-selling enquiry. People are ending up in EVs, be they taxi drivers, company car drivers or SalSac members when someone might perhaps have issued a stronger warning (as is repeated by virtually all EV owners on here) - don't buy an EV if you can’t charge at home. I know there are one or two YouTubers without home charging who do make their EVs work for them but they have done their homework and gone into it with their eyes open. It doesn’t help then, seeing negative media coverage, EV owners shout conspiracy and call ICE drivers morons. A culture war starts and sides are taken limiting further EV take up. 

Another consequence of this overselling is a lack of trust among the general public which is only compounded by the government telling them, sooner or later, you will have to buy what we tell you to buy. Brits don’t generally like being told what to do. It doesn’t help we were told what to do, very strongly, during Covid and it turns out it might not have been the best advice. A certain cynicism might, in the circumstances, be expected.

MeteredOut

JKenH said:

<snip>

 The argument on costs is moot also.

<snip>

No it's not. For a not-insignificant percentage of the UK, who can charge at home, who don't have to do long trips multiple times a week, and who are going replace their car anyway, getting an EV really is a no brainer from a cost perspective.

I'd throw ignorance and laziness into the reasoning. People too quickly believe what they hear and/or read on social media or click-bait headlines, with no inclination to find out the facts for themselves.

Same reasons a lot of people are still adamant they don't want a smart meter.

But if people really buy an EV without doing some level of investigation as to whether it is a fit for them, leading to claims of being mis-sold, then I really have little sympathy for them.

JKenH

MeteredOut said:

JKenH said:

<snip>

 The argument on costs is moot also.

<snip>

No it's not. For a not-insignificant percentage of the UK, who can charge at home, who don't have to do long trips multiple times a week, and who are going replace their car anyway, getting an EV really is a no brainer from a cost perspective.

I'd throw ignorance and laziness into the reasoning. People too quickly believe what they hear and/or read on social media or click-bait headlines, with no inclination to find out the facts for themselves.

Same reasons a lot of people are still adamant they don't want a smart meter.

But if people really buy an EV without doing some level of investigation as to whether it is a fit for them, leading to claims of being mis-sold, then I really have little sympathy for them.

But there is more to the cost of running a car than fuel. Yesterday I got an insurance quote for a Kia e-Niro that was for sale in Scunthorpe at at £19,798 (70plate 23k miles, 64kWh battery). When I loaded the details into the comparison website it produced a value for the car roughly £5k less. I decided to myself that I’m not going to lose £5k on a car before it has turned a wheel so haven’t pursued it further. 

MeteredOut

JKenH said:

MeteredOut said:

JKenH said:

<snip>

 The argument on costs is moot also.

<snip>

No it's not. For a not-insignificant percentage of the UK, who can charge at home, who don't have to do long trips multiple times a week, and who are going replace their car anyway, getting an EV really is a no brainer from a cost perspective.

I'd throw ignorance and laziness into the reasoning. People too quickly believe what they hear and/or read on social media or click-bait headlines, with no inclination to find out the facts for themselves.

Same reasons a lot of people are still adamant they don't want a smart meter.

But if people really buy an EV without doing some level of investigation as to whether it is a fit for them, leading to claims of being mis-sold, then I really have little sympathy for them.

But there is more to the cost of running a car than fuel. Yesterday I got an insurance quote for a Kia e-Niro that was for sale in Scunthorpe at at £19,798 (70plate 23k miles, 64kWh battery). When I loaded the details into the comparison website it produced a value for the car roughly £5k less. I decided to myself that I’m not going to lose £5k on a car before it has turned a wheel so haven’t pursued it further. 

You're trolling now - you know very well the same can and does happen for any car, not just EVs. The moment you drive a car away from a forecourt it will have lost value. If that lost value is 25% of what you paid, you either overpaid for it in the first place, or you've gone to a distress buying web site such as We Buy Any Car. In the past, when I've insured ICE cars, the "valuation" from the comparison sites has always been lower than recent sale price/market value.

I wasn't just referring to fuel though. Even if what you said was true for all EVs, and only EVs, your comment that "the argument on costs is moot" is still confusing. 

JKenH

MeteredOut said:

JKenH said:

MeteredOut said:

JKenH said:

<snip>

 The argument on costs is moot also.

<snip>

No it's not. For a not-insignificant percentage of the UK, who can charge at home, who don't have to do long trips multiple times a week, and who are going replace their car anyway, getting an EV really is a no brainer from a cost perspective.

I'd throw ignorance and laziness into the reasoning. People too quickly believe what they hear and/or read on social media or click-bait headlines, with no inclination to find out the facts for themselves.

Same reasons a lot of people are still adamant they don't want a smart meter.

But if people really buy an EV without doing some level of investigation as to whether it is a fit for them, leading to claims of being mis-sold, then I really have little sympathy for them.

But there is more to the cost of running a car than fuel. Yesterday I got an insurance quote for a Kia e-Niro that was for sale in Scunthorpe at at £19,798 (70plate 23k miles, 64kWh battery). When I loaded the details into the comparison website it produced a value for the car roughly £5k less. I decided to myself that I’m not going to lose £5k on a car before it has turned a wheel so haven’t pursued it further. 

You're trolling now - you know very well the same can and does happen for any car, not just EVs. The moment you drive a car away from a forecourt it will have lost value. If that lost value is 25% of what you paid, you either overpaid for it in the first place, or you've gone to a distress buying web site such as We Buy Any Car. In the past, when I've insured ICE cars, the "valuation" from the comparison sites has always been lower than recent sale price/market value.

I wasn't just referring to fuel though. Even if what you said was true for all EVs, and only EVs, your comment that "the argument on costs is moot" is still confusing. 

Sorry, I wasn’t trolling; I was just putting a counter argument forward on the subject of costs. However I must apologise as I got the wrong car in the example above. I couldn’t access my account on the comparison website as it was busy and I quoted the car I thought I had got the price for. I had in fact looked at two. The other was from the garage where we bought my wife’s Kia Picanto last year. 

Here is the advert. You will see the price is below average retail.

 
Here is the insurance valuation for the same car.

The difference is £5.4K. Yes I am aware that the trade values are lower than retail but last year when I bought my Golf the difference was around £2k or 12% and that was against the WBAC price! The difference here is almost 27%. You may not like my figures being used but they are real figures of just how much you would lose if the car were written off. 

It doesn’t matter what you think, the difference was enough to stop me looking into it further. 

Edit; I have just checked and the WBAC price for this car is £10,695!!! That’s a 47% difference! 

Edit: please see my reply to @Magnitio lower down on this page. This valuation of £10,650 is incorrect - it’s the wrong vehicle. It should be £16560 so the depreciation driving out the showroom is only £3.5k and not the £9.5k I suggested. (It is interesting though that WBAC’s valuation is £1.8k higher than the insurance comparison website.) 

The valuation of £10,659 relates to my old Leaf. I had started the Kia valuation from that old valuation and changed the registration and mileage but it seems it only accepted the new mileage. The text from WBAC hadn’t come through when I posted and I didn’t check my phone until @Manitio posted. 

That’s quite embarrassing really and I do apologise to anyone who read this post. 

Yet another edit: I was puzzled by why the WBAC value was higher than the insurance comparison website and I have concluded it must be down to mileage. The E-Niro had only done 12k miles and this was reflected in the WBAC price but there was no mention of mileage on the comparison site so it would probably assume a mileage of about 30k.  

To check it out I got a WBAC valuation of my Golf which is now exactly £12k and the comparison site suggests £13,270. (My Golf is on average miles at 34k). 

JKenH

I have posted this for those who believe that the Daily Mail only publishes sensationalist negative stories about EVs.

How the Tesla Model Y became Europe's first ever ELECTRIC best-selling car

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/cars/article-12991381/How-Tesla-Model-Y-Europes-ELECTRIC-best-selling-car.html

Magnitio

JKenH said:

Sorry, I wasn’t trolling; I was just putting a counter argument forward on the subject of costs. However I must apologise as I got the wrong car in the example above. I couldn’t access my account on the comparison website as it was busy and I quoted the car I thought I had got the price for. I had in fact looked at two. The other was from the garage where we bought my wife’s Kia Picanto last year. 

Here is the advert. You will see the price is below average retail.

 
Here is the insurance valuation for the same car.

The difference is £5.4K. Yes I am aware that the trade values are lower than retail but last year when I bought my Golf the difference was around £2k or 12% and that was against the WBAC price! The difference here is almost 27%. You may not like my figures being used but they are real figures of just how much you would lose if the car were written off. 

It doesn’t matter what you think, the difference was enough to stop me looking into it further. 

Edit; I have just checked and the WBAC price for this car is £10,695!!! That’s a 47% difference! 

Maybe you got the wrong car again. I just put that car's details into WBAC and the result was £16,560. Can't trust anything you read on the internet.

JKenH

Magnitio said:

JKenH said:

Sorry, I wasn’t trolling; I was just putting a counter argument forward on the subject of costs. However I must apologise as I got the wrong car in the example above. I couldn’t access my account on the comparison website as it was busy and I quoted the car I thought I had got the price for. I had in fact looked at two. The other was from the garage where we bought my wife’s Kia Picanto last year. 

Here is the advert. You will see the price is below average retail.

 
Here is the insurance valuation for the same car.

The difference is £5.4K. Yes I am aware that the trade values are lower than retail but last year when I bought my Golf the difference was around £2k or 12% and that was against the WBAC price! The difference here is almost 27%. You may not like my figures being used but they are real figures of just how much you would lose if the car were written off. 

It doesn’t matter what you think, the difference was enough to stop me looking into it further. 

Edit; I have just checked and the WBAC price for this car is £10,695!!! That’s a 47% difference! 

Maybe you got the wrong car again. I just put that car's details into WBAC and the result was £16,560. Can't trust anything you read on the internet.

Yes you are right, I’ve just tried again and that’s what I got as well. I started off from the last valuation I had (for my old Leaf) and changed the car and entered the 12 k mileage and for some reason it has churned out a value for the Leaf again. 

Egg on face and apologies to everyone.