EV Discussion thread

MikeJXE

I have written this once but it didn't seem to register 

For the purpose of QrizB and Grumpy_chap comments

My first comment on this thread today was

Do the maths especially if you don't have home charging as I don't, so no need to quote home charging. 

The Article stated remote charging was about 14p per mile and my Jag does 14p per mile so no benefit to me. 

If you read this thread regularly which I think you both do

I suggest you both Know my Jag unless you skipped over my post in late December 

I posted my 4 year ownership, miles, costs in detail, fuel costs, service, parts, mot and tax. Not including insurance

Working out my cost per mile was actual over that 4 year period not some random number from a car mag. That cost per mile could be lower if the high costs in 21/22 were stripped out 

I don't think I had a single comment regarding my Jaguar XE post, could that be this thread is pro-AV and anything relating to ICE is shot down or ignored ?

michaels

I think a new battery for my leaf would be about £60 : £200 sounds pricey to me.

Netexporter

I wouldn't pay over £30 for a lead-acid battery. The ones used in EVs are the same as you'd find in a small petrol car.

Current fuel/leccy costs per mile:

https://youtu.be/cGBAY_e95bU?t=79

Reed_Richards

I would have thought that 14p per mile for remote EV charging is actually a bit optimistic.  My car might just about manage 4 miles per kWh in summer but at the moment it's getting nearer 3.  Maybe it's better elsewhere but where I am a lot of the rapid chargers cost 60p per kWh.  So that mean I would pay 15p to 20p per mile.     

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

My understanding is that most EVs also have a 12V battery for the ancillary systems. I'd expect that battery to be somewhat cheaper than the 12V battery in an ICE since it doesn't have to perform starting duties.

Just as a side note, I think some EV manufacturers are starting to look at replacing the 12V lead acid batts with Li-ion. I know Tesla made some changes last year, but not sure when/if it will be across the board.

This change may be partly as you say because they don't need to be as powerful, but I think mainly to save space and weight.

JKenH

Netexporter said:

I wouldn't pay over £30 for a lead-acid battery. The ones used in EVs are the same as you'd find in a small petrol car.

Current fuel/leccy costs per mile:

https://youtu.be/cGBAY_e95bU?t=79

That was a pretty comprehensive review of the public charging network. It does, though, show how complicated it is, particularly if you are price sensitive. I used to have several apps on my phone and RFID cards but found it simpler to just head to a reliable contactless charger like Instavollt even if it did cost a bit more.

One point I would like to make and this is common to most pro EV YouTube channels is to compare EV costs with ICE costs by using 30 or 40mpg as typical for an ICE car. 

This might have been the case a few years ago but we should really be comparing EVs with modern ICE cars. If you are buying an EV privately you probably already have one eye on fuel costs and are unlikely to be driving around in a 30mpg or considering a new 30mpg car. (There will of course be exceptions like Nick😉). The graph below https://www.statista.com/statistics/780748/new-car-fuel-consumption-great-britain/ shows the improvement in mpg over the years with a slight uptick in consumption as SUVs became more popular. So, yes, if you are looking at a Tesla model X it might be fair to compare it with a bulky SUV like a Range Rover but the biggest selling class of car in the UK is I believe the super mini. (Although it isn’t clear from the Statista data whether the average mpg is weighted to account for vehicle type, the average mpg of a new car in the UK by 2020 had dropped to 52mpg. Since 2015 the average has been around 50 mpg. The calculation Dave uses is also based on £1.41/litre (on 20 January) compared to the £1.34p/litre our local garage sells it at which works out at 11.7p/mile compared to Dave’s 16 or 21p/mile  and IIRC the Autocar piece was also suggesting about 20p/mile for petrol. 

Edit: the figures are registration weighted - it says it on the supplementary notes.

JKenH

Electric cars will never dominate market, says Toyota 

Battery-powered electric vehicles will only ever capture 30pc of global market share, the chairman of Toyota has predicted, raising concerns about consumers’ willingness to align with net zero goals.

Akio Toyoda said that traditional fuel-burning cars, as well as hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles would make up the rest of the market.

The grandson of the founder of the world’s largest car manufacturer said shifting towards electric vehicles is not the answer when a billion people in the world are living without electricity.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/23/ftse-100-markets-news-latest-government-debt-jeremy-hunt/

Even I am surprised by this statement from Mr Toyoda. While I have often suggested Toyota’s hesitancy to embrace EVs at the pace other manufacturers adopted was a sensible commercial decision at this stage of their development, I think he is wrong on this latest claim. He refers to market share and I am presuming by this he means new automotive sales rather than the whole fleet. Legislation around the world is what is driving the switch to EVs and in most of the developed world (I’m including China here) government policy will dictate that the vast majority (even if not 100%) of new sales will be zero emission. I just don’t see HFCVs achieving a significant foothold so the only option will be EVs. If the consumer was left to decide then he could be right but unless there is a significant change in the political climate in the West that won’t happen and in China what the electorate (consumers) thinks doesn’t matter. 

If the latter (I.e. the whole global automotive fleet) then there is perhaps a chance he may be right as there will be countries (even in the developed world) where old ICE vehicles will trundle on for decades. While I accept the huge potential for two electric wheelers to become dominant in third world countries, Idoubt the local grids are viable for widespread EV adoption outside urban areas and I see ICE vehicles hanging on here. Distributed generation may be the key but that requires a significant investment and is more likely to need government support. The huge demands EVs could place on local grids in these areas might be problematic. 

Then of course there is the clout of Middle Eastern petro states which will be keen to see ICEVs continue (as we witnessed at COP 28) as no doubt will Russia and Venezuela. Even the U.S. and Canada have vast oil resources that they will be reluctant to permanently lock away. Actually I wonder if Norway has ever considered what will happen to its economy if ICE vehicles around the world disappear. Japan may buck the trend and allow ICEs but is their home market big enough to make their manufacture commercially viable in the future? Probably not, at least not on the scale Toyoda would like to see, but add up all the other countries I have just mentioned plus parts of Asia, Africa and South America and ICE manufacture may still be viable, particularly if China and Europe have pulled out. (And the Japanese OEMs maybe will be the best placed to serve these markets.)

While therefore I think Mr Toyoda is probably wrong, I would not be surprised if one third of new automotive sales will still be non BEV in 2050 and half the world’s automotive fleet will still be ICE powered (probably most of them Toyotas). Sadly, I am unlikely to be around to see if that prediction comes true. 

MeteredOut

He didn't give a timeframe. In 50-75 years time its not unfeasible we could have 69% HFCV, 30% EV and the other 1% will contain the couple of people who will still be posting here about how their ICE vehicles as so much better than this new-fangled technology

michaels

I would have thought you could probably build a cheap small third world suitable ev cheaper than an ice (aren't they less than 10k use in China?) and similarly having your own PV to charge might be cheaper and more reliable than the grid if you are paying Alibaba prices for the panels and invertor and no MCAS install prices

paul991

Third world  countries are more likely to use mopeds with battery swap. At  what point do petrol stations start to thin out due to viability loss of trade