Rate predictions 2022, 2023

ranciduk

A 0.25% rise next week would surely mean Bailey loses any credibility he still has left 

Millyonare

To be fair, UK inflation today is about the same as the EU and US, and the UK has managed so far to avoid recession (unlike the US). Bailey might be a lucky bank manager.

jimexbox

I'd be surprised if we don't see a 0.5 rise this week. The BoE will then let this sink in for a few months. With another 0.25 before Christmas.

Swipe

Type_45 said:

ranciduk said:

The Fed raises by 0.75% 

Will be the final hike before rate cuts, in my opinion.

The Fed needs to get to the neutral rate of 3.4%, why would they cut rates?

Millyonare

Looking ahead, the UK and US risk now is not inflation. It is deflation. Wholesale prices of oil, food etc. have plummeted in recent weeks! Dyor, etc.

Lastonestanding

Millyonare said:

Looking ahead, the UK and US risk now is not inflation. It is deflation. Wholesale prices of oil, food etc. have plummeted in recent weeks! Dyor, etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/inflation-will-soar-to-astronomical-levels-over-next-year-thinktank-warns?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

ChilliBob

Sadly I think the latter view is more likely

And yeah, 0.5 looks to be a dead cert tomorrow, but hey, I'm not a gambling man! 

Millyonare

Lastonestanding said:

Millyonare said:

Looking ahead, the UK and US risk now is not inflation. It is deflation. Wholesale prices of oil, food etc. have plummeted in recent weeks! Dyor, etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/inflation-will-soar-to-astronomical-levels-over-next-year-thinktank-warns?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The very latest numbers suggest (almost) everything is now falling in price or has peaked in the US and UK. Petrol, used car prices, oil, gas, shipping containers, money supply, wholesale food, it's nearly all starting to tumble. The tide has turned. Dyor, etc.

Bobziz

Millyonare said:

Lastonestanding said:

Millyonare said:

Looking ahead, the UK and US risk now is not inflation. It is deflation. Wholesale prices of oil, food etc. have plummeted in recent weeks! Dyor, etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/inflation-will-soar-to-astronomical-levels-over-next-year-thinktank-warns?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

The very latest numbers suggest (almost) everything is now falling in price or has peaked in the US and UK. Petrol, used car prices, oil, gas, shipping containers, money supply, wholesale food, it's nearly all starting to tumble. The tide has turned. Dyor, etc.

Are we observing the turn of the tide or simply the movement of the waves?

Lastonestanding

Millyonare said

The very latest numbers suggest (almost) everything is now falling in price or has peaked in the US and UK. Petrol, used car prices, oil, gas, shipping containers, money supply, wholesale food, it's nearly all starting to tumble. The tide has turned. Dyor, etc.

Almost could be correct, but energy prices are set to increase by over 50% and interest rates by 0.5%
So we are a long way from falling inflation