Rate predictions 2022, 2023

jimexbox

The FT are reporting the markets are betting, via index swap markets. That base rates will hit 2.75% on November 3rd (BoE meeting). So 3 consecutive 0.5 increases.

Hitting 4% by May. 

HHarry

jimexbox said:

The FT are reporting the markets are betting, via index swap markets. That base rates will hit 2.75% on November 3rd (BoE meeting). So 3 consecutive 0.5 increases.

Hitting 4% by May. 

We’re already on 1.75% so 2 lots of 0.5%

ChilliBob

17 pages and counting! I thought this may be one of my threads which fizzled out after about four replies. Nice!

I'm keen to know if anyone's changed their stance as the thread has developed? - Not necessarily their rate predictions, just their own actions. Mine haven't really - moving around savings accounts like a bit of a rate tart and at some point putting more cash into Global Equities in a nutshell really. 

jimexbox

HHarry said:

jimexbox said:

The FT are reporting the markets are betting, via index swap markets. That base rates will hit 2.75% on November 3rd (BoE meeting). So 3 consecutive 0.5 increases.

Hitting 4% by May. 

We’re already on 1.75% so 2 lots of 0.5%

I said 3 consecutive, we've already had the first one. 

jimexbox

ChilliBob said:

17 pages and counting! I thought this may be one of my threads which fizzled out after about four replies. Nice!

I'm keen to know if anyone's changed their stance as the thread has developed? - Not necessarily their rate predictions, just their own actions. Mine haven't really - moving around savings accounts like a bit of a rate tart and at some point putting more cash into Global Equities in a nutshell really. 

If the thread fizzled out that would of probably been a good sign. Unfortunately the news gets worse every month.

Moving cash around like yourself. I'm moving house in a year, so don't have a great deal of choices. 

ChilliBob

Fair enough, I did that towards the end of last year so thankfully that hassle is behind me, I wish you luck!

Yes, I know what you mean, the JPM prediction of18% inflation was a bit of a stinker to put it mildly!

Albermarle

jimexbox said:

The FT are reporting the markets are betting, via index swap markets. That base rates will hit 2.75% on November 3rd (BoE meeting). So 3 consecutive 0.5 increases.

Hitting 4% by May. 

The 2.75% by November seems a good guess. Presume there will not be another increase in December/near Xmas and by January it will be all doom and gloom, so might look a bit odd putting rates up more if the economy is in trouble, businesses going bust , people cold etc .

t1redmonkey

I feel like there may be a 0.75% increase at the next meeting in September.  The 0.5% increase seems to be a guaranteed minimum at this point, and there's been pessimistic reports recently about inflation potentially getting to 18% in early 2023 at this rate, and also the Fed in the US are not showing any signs of letting up with their interest rate increases (and the BoE tends to take it's lead from them).  Maybe it will just be a 0.5% increase over here in September, but I think it could be a close run thing.

InvesterJones

I think a lot is going to depend on politics - if our new PM sticks with economically damaging policies then BoE will be forced to hike further.. then again they might change the BoE mandate/independence to prevent them from doing so.. which will only cause even more of an issue that will need more pain to address later.

Or the new PM may change their mind once installed and not wreck the economy, in which case the BoE can return to its planned programme.