What's your Next Moves on Gas and Electricity Bills?

[Deleted User]

bery_451 said:

[Deleted User] said:

bery_451 said:

pochase said:

Because without the cap the suppliers could change their SVT today instead of only on the 1st of October, and they would increase the rate to a point where they are not losing money.

Just look at the two Octopus tracker, people are currently paying 55p (and that is a capped price) because the wholesale prices are so this high already for the last week.

If that's the case then why the tv news showing energy companies are swimming in £billions of cash profits when you say energy companies are barely making break-even at the moment?

They should call it temporarily price cap. Or expiry price caps. Price caps in general is misleading. Millions of people missed out on a cheaper fixed deal in the past because they thought their SVR tariffs will be 'capped' in price.

The suppliers aren't swimming in cash profits - in fact most have them have gone bust.

Fuel producers are swimming in cash profits, but there's not much we can do about Saudi Aramco or CNOOC.

Saudi Aramco and the Chinese CNOOC are for Crude Oil like Petrol and Diesel. I'm talking about Gas & Electric.

So the 'Big 6' energy suppliers such as British Gas are buying wholesale at a loss or they can afford to buy in Bulk giving them more discounts over the smaller suppliers hence that's how British gas is surviving now or does the government see British gas as 'too big to fail' and British gas is receiving bail out money from the government hence how they are still surviving now?

CNOOC is one of the top ten producers of North Sea gas.  They're not just petrol and diesel.  The same with many others.  The oil and gas markets are heavily linked.

No 'bail out money' for British Gas.  The cap allows suppliers to make a small profit (about 1.9%).  Lots went bust because they had agreed to sell energy at a price they could no longer buy it for (so they ended up buying wholesale at a loss as you say).

The only one that was 'too big to fail' was Bulb, which is now run by the government until there's something better to do with it - so far going to cost us over £2 billion.

bery_451

Deleted_User said:

bery_451 said:

Deleted_User said:

bery_451 said:

pochase said:

Because without the cap the suppliers could change their SVT today instead of only on the 1st of October, and they would increase the rate to a point where they are not losing money.

Just look at the two Octopus tracker, people are currently paying 55p (and that is a capped price) because the wholesale prices are so this high already for the last week.

If that's the case then why the tv news showing energy companies are swimming in £billions of cash profits when you say energy companies are barely making break-even at the moment?

They should call it temporarily price cap. Or expiry price caps. Price caps in general is misleading. Millions of people missed out on a cheaper fixed deal in the past because they thought their SVR tariffs will be 'capped' in price.

The suppliers aren't swimming in cash profits - in fact most have them have gone bust.

Fuel producers are swimming in cash profits, but there's not much we can do about Saudi Aramco or CNOOC.

Saudi Aramco and the Chinese CNOOC are for Crude Oil like Petrol and Diesel. I'm talking about Gas & Electric.

So the 'Big 6' energy suppliers such as British Gas are buying wholesale at a loss or they can afford to buy in Bulk giving them more discounts over the smaller suppliers hence that's how British gas is surviving now or does the government see British gas as 'too big to fail' and British gas is receiving bail out money from the government hence how they are still surviving now?

CNOOC is one of the top ten producers of North Sea gas.  They're not just petrol and diesel.  The same with many others.  The oil and gas markets are heavily linked.

No 'bail out money' for British Gas.  The cap allows suppliers to make a small profit (about 1.9%).  Lots went bust because they had agreed to sell energy at a price they could no longer buy it for (so they ended up buying wholesale at a loss as you say).

The only one that was 'too big to fail' was Bulb, which is now run by the government until there's something better to do with it - so far going to cost us over £2 billion.

Okay so you saying with the cap rising to around £3500 next month and again over £5000 in the coming new year, energy suppliers such as British gas profits are also still capped at 1.9%? So from this can we look at the stock/share price of british gas on the FTSE 100 UK stock market and see whether the shareholders/investors are happy about this news by buying the stock or unhappy about the news by selling its stock/shares?

Somehow the big 6 energy suppliers such as british gas manage to buy wholesale energy prices at 1.9% cheaper than they can sell it for you say and the smaller energy companies that went bankrupt couldn't buy at this discount?

Bulb is owned by the british tax payer/government. So the government is making a loss too at the taxpayers expense, cant buy cheaper wholesale energy?

Sorry I cant make sense out of it.

QrizB

bery_451 said:

Okay so you saying with the cap rising to around £3500 next month and again over £5000 in the coming new year, energy suppliers such as British gas profits are also still capped at 1.9%? So from this can we look at the stock/share price of british gas on the FTSE 100 UK stock market and see whether the shareholders/investors are happy about this news by buying the stock or unhappy about the news by selling its stock/shares?

British Gas Trading Limited, Registered Number 03078711, is a private limited company and as such is not listed on the FTSE100 or anywhere else.

Somehow the big 6 energy suppliers such as british gas manage to buy wholesale energy prices at 1.9% cheaper than they can sell it for you say and the smaller energy companies that went bankrupt couldn't buy at this discount?

Yes. The remaining companies forward-purchased their gas at the same prices used when calculating the cap. Most of the comapnies that went bust didn't, and relied on purchasing it on the short-term markets (where it was, for a period, cheaper).

Bulb is owned by the british tax payer/government. So the government is making a loss too at the taxpayers expense, cant buy cheaper wholesale energy?

Yes, the UK government has prohibited Bulb from forward-purchasing energy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/u-k-government-repeats-bulb-energy-mistake-by-failing-to-hedge

After nationalizing Bulb Energy Ltd., the U.K. government is making the same mistake that helped take down the nation’s seventh biggest supplier in the first place: failing to hedge adequately.

The energy firm, currently run by special administrator, isn’t buying power and gas in advance to shield its finances from rising prices as Treasury rules won’t allow the government to hedge, said people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the details are private.

Blame the Treasury.

Sorry I cant make sense out of it.

Possibly do a bit of investigation next time?

[Deleted User]

bery_451 said:

Deleted_User said:

bery_451 said:

Deleted_User said:

bery_451 said:

pochase said:

Because without the cap the suppliers could change their SVT today instead of only on the 1st of October, and they would increase the rate to a point where they are not losing money.

Just look at the two Octopus tracker, people are currently paying 55p (and that is a capped price) because the wholesale prices are so this high already for the last week.

If that's the case then why the tv news showing energy companies are swimming in £billions of cash profits when you say energy companies are barely making break-even at the moment?

They should call it temporarily price cap. Or expiry price caps. Price caps in general is misleading. Millions of people missed out on a cheaper fixed deal in the past because they thought their SVR tariffs will be 'capped' in price.

The suppliers aren't swimming in cash profits - in fact most have them have gone bust.

Fuel producers are swimming in cash profits, but there's not much we can do about Saudi Aramco or CNOOC.

Saudi Aramco and the Chinese CNOOC are for Crude Oil like Petrol and Diesel. I'm talking about Gas & Electric.

So the 'Big 6' energy suppliers such as British Gas are buying wholesale at a loss or they can afford to buy in Bulk giving them more discounts over the smaller suppliers hence that's how British gas is surviving now or does the government see British gas as 'too big to fail' and British gas is receiving bail out money from the government hence how they are still surviving now?

CNOOC is one of the top ten producers of North Sea gas.  They're not just petrol and diesel.  The same with many others.  The oil and gas markets are heavily linked.

No 'bail out money' for British Gas.  The cap allows suppliers to make a small profit (about 1.9%).  Lots went bust because they had agreed to sell energy at a price they could no longer buy it for (so they ended up buying wholesale at a loss as you say).

The only one that was 'too big to fail' was Bulb, which is now run by the government until there's something better to do with it - so far going to cost us over £2 billion.

Okay so you saying with the cap rising to around £3500 next month and again over £5000 in the coming new year, energy suppliers such as British gas profits are also still capped at 1.9%? So from this can we look at the stock/share price of british gas on the FTSE 100 UK stock market and see whether the shareholders/investors are happy about this news by buying the stock or unhappy about the news by selling its stock/shares?

Somehow the big 6 energy suppliers such as british gas manage to buy wholesale energy prices at 1.9% cheaper than they can sell it for you say and the smaller energy companies that went bankrupt couldn't buy at this discount?

Bulb is owned by the british tax payer/government. So the government is making a loss too at the taxpayers expense, cant buy cheaper wholesale energy?

Sorry I cant make sense out of it.

Apart from looking on the stock market (most of these companies are not there) - most of the rest that you’ve written is a reasonably accurate summary.

Profit is still capped and Bulb is still making a loss for the taxpayer.

bery_451

The price charts of energy here in the wholesale market suggests otherwise!:

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ENERGY&p=m1

Ethanol gone up because the government has diluted fuel at petrol stations with more ethanol causing more demand for it pushing up prices higher in a bid to save the planet from boiling oceans and being cooked in global warming.

QrizB

bery_451 said:

The price charts of energy here in the wholesale market suggests otherwise!:

Otherwise to what, exactly?

Please be precise when answering so we can understand exactly what you mean.

bery_451

What's this 'Cant/Don't Pay October' upcoming event that has hundreds of thousands of signatures signed on a petition? I even see it on TV and news.

If a person cant or doesn't pay his/her gas or electric bills then can the energy supplier specifically cut off gas or electric to that house if that person is on a normal meter or smart meter?

Or is it like water where they cant cut off the supply of water to a particular house?

Yeah I know a person who doesn't pay bills gets blacklisted on his/her credit rating for 6 years meaning they cant apply for a mobile phone contract or apply for a credit card or apply for a mortgage and stuff but I doubt a person who cant afford to pay the bills in a current a house will get a mortgage in the future to pay bills again in that new house.

If hundreds of thousands of people or millions of people cant afford or don't pay energy bills then the final $64,000 dollar question is can the big 6 energy suppliers afford the court fees and bailiff fees to hire thousands and thousands of bailiffs to visit hundreds of thousands or millions of homes in UK to chase up the debt?

What if the big 6 energy suppliers go bust bankrupt and say because non-payment of bills we cant continue to maintain the grid so we end up like a 3rd world country with long periods of blackouts and stuff like that and what about the wealthier people who kept up and have paid the bills, will they experience this too?

 

bery_451

Okay coming back here with this new energy price cap of £2500 per year for 2 years from Liz Truss that expires in October 2024.

Questions are if she is kicked out like they kicked out Boris Johnson then her above policy will be reversed undone correct? Because the global financial markets don't like her borrowing more money from the bank of england money printers to fund all this energy cap cuts that will lead to more higher inflation. So in this likely scenario its a good idea to get a fixed tariff now to hedge yourself against her policies being reversed by a new Prime Minister like Biden has reversed most of Trumps policies. If reversed then people will be expose to £5000-£6000 per year energy bills!

QrizB

bery_451 said:

Questions are if she is kicked out like they kicked out Boris Johnson then her above policy will be reversed undone correct?

The Energy Price Guarantee is a political promise, not a legal commitment. As such it's even more vulnerable than the incumbent PM.

Ultrasonic

Personally I suspect the EPG will stay no matter what, including if we have an early general election (please!). I don't recall any particular adverse financial markets or currency reaction when the policy was announced?