Vanguard FTSE Global/Dev World ex-uk, LS80/100, all down - is it Ukraine?

grumiofoundation

ProDave said:

eskbanker said:

ProDave said:

This last 3 months has been a learning curve.  What I have learned is IGNORE THE ADVICE HERE.

Just when Omicron was rearing it's head, I got a feeling things were not looking good, as per previous lockdowns, the economy slows and economic activity falls and sentiment weakens.  I suggested the markets might fall and then might have been a good time to sell some things.

The forum talked me out of it saying that much regurgitated "time in the market not time the market"

Oh how I WISH I had ignored them and sold.

If i had followed my instinct I would be looking to buy back some but possibly not until the Ukraine issue is resolved.

Next time I will follow my instinct but keep it to myself because you just can't educate some people.

Do you have a link for the thread(s) in which you were talked out of selling investments?  The fact that prices have dropped a bit doesn't in itself mean that it would have been right to sell two or three months ago, unless there was a compelling reason to liquidate assets, as trying to time the market isn't generally advisable - the fact that in this particular case it may have been possible to benefit by a few percentage points doesn't actually invalidate the usual rule of thumb (or mean that those advocating it are uneducated), especially if wanting to try to time re-entry too.  What does your instinct say is the right time to buy back, in more specific terms than "possibly not until the Ukraine issue is resolved"?

I can't find my old thread.

I look at charts of my chosen (or prospective) investments.

I was lucky to be in cash when Covid hit in early 2020 so did not lose out in the crash.  Once things started to turn upwards I re invested and enjoyed a good run. but the 2 funds I was invested in were starting to run out of steam and just marking time, up a little, down a little with no clear upward trend.  That and Omicron made me think it was time to go back to cash for a short while.  Oh how I wish I had.

And buying back, once I see a watched investment turn from downwards to what looks like a solid upward trend.

What is mystifying is the types of funds discussed in this thread probably down 10% in the last month or so is against a backdrop of the FTSE100 looking generally positive apart from a few blips.  I know we are not talking about FTSE trackers, but it does seem very odd that a number of high profile and previously well respected funds are falling sharply while the FTSE100 is generally up over the same period.

What we all agree on is these are not normal times, too many unusual things happening which is another reason I am not a fan of "wait and hope"

I appreciate you are not supposed to give advice, so i don't expect "buy XYZ I think they are going to rocket" but we never get any proper discussion about markets, sentiment, when might be a general upturn, when might be a general downturn, that fund seems to have topped out time to try a different one etc.  Just the "time in the market" mantra that makes it a pretty useless place if you want to discuss where might be a good place to invest for the next cycle.

This thread seems to show I am not the only one wanting better advice and hoping for a community that can share thoughts genuinely.

Is it this thread?

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6207234/covid-crash-2-started/p1

Despite the recent blip/correction/dip/crash (delete as appropriate!) an 'all-world' index is higher today than it was in October 2020 when you started that thread  (HSBC FTSE ALL WORLD INDEX picked as example see link)  

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/h/hsbc-ftse-all-world-index-class-c-accumulation/charts

Thrugelmir

ProDave said:

eskbanker said:

ProDave said:

This last 3 months has been a learning curve.  What I have learned is IGNORE THE ADVICE HERE.

Just when Omicron was rearing it's head, I got a feeling things were not looking good, as per previous lockdowns, the economy slows and economic activity falls and sentiment weakens.  I suggested the markets might fall and then might have been a good time to sell some things.

The forum talked me out of it saying that much regurgitated "time in the market not time the market"

Oh how I WISH I had ignored them and sold.

If i had followed my instinct I would be looking to buy back some but possibly not until the Ukraine issue is resolved.

Next time I will follow my instinct but keep it to myself because you just can't educate some people.

Do you have a link for the thread(s) in which you were talked out of selling investments?  The fact that prices have dropped a bit doesn't in itself mean that it would have been right to sell two or three months ago, unless there was a compelling reason to liquidate assets, as trying to time the market isn't generally advisable - the fact that in this particular case it may have been possible to benefit by a few percentage points doesn't actually invalidate the usual rule of thumb (or mean that those advocating it are uneducated), especially if wanting to try to time re-entry too.  What does your instinct say is the right time to buy back, in more specific terms than "possibly not until the Ukraine issue is resolved"?

What is mystifying is the types of funds discussed in this thread probably down 10% in the last month or so is against a backdrop of the FTSE100 looking generally positive apart from a few blips.  I know we are not talking about FTSE trackers, but it does seem very odd that a number of high profile and previously well respected funds are falling sharply while the FTSE100 is generally up over the same period.

In summary. Investors have been net sellers of UK equities since before the Brexit referendum in 2016. Cash subsequently flowed into US stocks resulting in a disparity in valuation. As with any trade they comes a point when other markets offer better future returns. Institutional money has been flowing back into the UK more recently. With the index weighting to energy, miners and financials. Any uptick in interest rates and inflation will benefit said stocks in particular. As far as bank stocks are concerned the GFC and PPI saga's are consigned to history. 

Not a recommendation to invest in the UK per se I should add. 

masonic

ProDave said:

This last 3 months has been a learning curve.  What I have learned is IGNORE THE ADVICE HERE.

Just when Omicron was rearing it's head, I got a feeling things were not looking good, as per previous lockdowns, the economy slows and economic activity falls and sentiment weakens.  I suggested the markets might fall and then might have been a good time to sell some things.

The forum talked me out of it saying that much regurgitated "time in the market not time the market"

Oh how I WISH I had ignored them and sold.

If i had followed my instinct I would be looking to buy back some but possibly not until the Ukraine issue is resolved.

Next time I will follow my instinct but keep it to myself because you just can't educate some people.

Most of us don't try to time the market because we can't. I seem to recall you were an active contributor to the long running market timing thread started at the beginning of the pandemic (started by Ed Gasket I think, who is now long gone). You'd have seen from that thread that most posters suggest not trying to sell to avoid dips, but that was one you guessed correctly initially, and I think only went wrong when you took the recovery as a dead cat bounce (unless I'm mixing up that part with someone else). Meanwhile, I think poor Ed may be still in gold and silver, having sold near the bottom of the covid crash (#1).

Are you referring to the following thread? https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6207234/covid-crash-2-started/p1

Probably not as that one is from the end of October 2020 and markets had bounced back by mid-November and did quite well in the subsequent year. Perhaps there have been other threads. What's that saying about a stopped clock?

Market peaks are a good time to check you are not overexposed, so selling some investments can make sense if you've enjoyed some decent growth. I wouldn't dissuade anyone from doing that.

coyrls

Thrugelmir said:

coyrls said:

The known risk with SWR strategies is that they will fail in historically unprecedented circumstances but what we are seeing now is far, far from historically unprecedented.

Which period of history are you comparing it too? 

The periods used for SWR studies.  Do you think that this month's drop in equity prices (which is what is being discussed in this thread) is unprecedented over the periods used by SWR studies?

bugbyte_2

coyrls said:

The periods used for SWR studies.  Do you think that this month's drop in equity prices (which is what is being discussed in this thread) is unprecedented over the periods used by SWR studies?

I agree its nothing out of the ordinary at the moment. I don't think anyone apart from maybe ProDave* is seeing a small drop as unpresidented. There has always been instability in the world and the lived experience always makes 'now' the worst time ever. Yes my Tech fund is down 7% but my Gold stash is up 1.3% and I'm only 4% down overall due to UK and Health and Pharma bias. We've had some weeks recently where we make 4% so nothing really to see here. 

* He may have a point if his entire portfolio is NFLX.

ProDave

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

eskbanker said:

ProDave said:

This last 3 months has been a learning curve.  What I have learned is IGNORE THE ADVICE HERE.

Just when Omicron was rearing it's head, I got a feeling things were not looking good, as per previous lockdowns, the economy slows and economic activity falls and sentiment weakens.  I suggested the markets might fall and then might have been a good time to sell some things.

The forum talked me out of it saying that much regurgitated "time in the market not time the market"

Oh how I WISH I had ignored them and sold.

If i had followed my instinct I would be looking to buy back some but possibly not until the Ukraine issue is resolved.

Next time I will follow my instinct but keep it to myself because you just can't educate some people.

Do you have a link for the thread(s) in which you were talked out of selling investments?  The fact that prices have dropped a bit doesn't in itself mean that it would have been right to sell two or three months ago, unless there was a compelling reason to liquidate assets, as trying to time the market isn't generally advisable - the fact that in this particular case it may have been possible to benefit by a few percentage points doesn't actually invalidate the usual rule of thumb (or mean that those advocating it are uneducated), especially if wanting to try to time re-entry too.  What does your instinct say is the right time to buy back, in more specific terms than "possibly not until the Ukraine issue is resolved"?

What is mystifying is the types of funds discussed in this thread probably down 10% in the last month or so is against a backdrop of the FTSE100 looking generally positive apart from a few blips.  I know we are not talking about FTSE trackers, but it does seem very odd that a number of high profile and previously well respected funds are falling sharply while the FTSE100 is generally up over the same period.

In summary. Investors have been net sellers of UK equities since before the Brexit referendum in 2016. Cash subsequently flowed into US stocks resulting in a disparity in valuation. As with any trade they comes a point when other markets offer better future returns. Institutional money has been flowing back into the UK more recently. With the index weighting to energy, miners and financials. Any uptick in interest rates and inflation will benefit said stocks in particular. As far as bank stocks are concerned the GFC and PPI saga's are consigned to history. 

Not a recommendation to invest in the UK per se I should add. 

This is the sort of thing I wish people would post regularly.  the turn of the year might have been a good time to switch from global funds to more UK centred funds perhaps.  Why don't we regularly see this sort of discussion on this board about what might be good, what might be bad etc.  It would be a so much more useful forum if we did.

Thrugelmir

coyrls said:

Thrugelmir said:

coyrls said:

The known risk with SWR strategies is that they will fail in historically unprecedented circumstances but what we are seeing now is far, far from historically unprecedented.

Which period of history are you comparing it too? 

The periods used for SWR studies.  Do you think that this month's drop in equity prices (which is what is being discussed in this thread) is unprecedented over the periods used by SWR studies?

Do you think that all the issues that the global markets are trying to price in are now resolved?  Personally I don't recall a similar set of scenaros previously which would have set any form of precedent. 

NedS

ProDave said:

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

What is mystifying is the types of funds discussed in this thread probably down 10% in the last month or so is against a backdrop of the FTSE100 looking generally positive apart from a few blips.  I know we are not talking about FTSE trackers, but it does seem very odd that a number of high profile and previously well respected funds are falling sharply while the FTSE100 is generally up over the same period.

In summary. Investors have been net sellers of UK equities since before the Brexit referendum in 2016. Cash subsequently flowed into US stocks resulting in a disparity in valuation. As with any trade they comes a point when other markets offer better future returns. Institutional money has been flowing back into the UK more recently. With the index weighting to energy, miners and financials. Any uptick in interest rates and inflation will benefit said stocks in particular. As far as bank stocks are concerned the GFC and PPI saga's are consigned to history. 

Not a recommendation to invest in the UK per se I should add. 

This is the sort of thing I wish people would post regularly.  the turn of the year might have been a good time to switch from global funds to more UK centred funds perhaps.  Why don't we regularly see this sort of discussion on this board about what might be good, what might be bad etc.  It would be a so much more useful forum if we did.

Seems to have been a similar re-rating of Japanese equity too, which was also unloved and comparatively cheap. Last years dogs are rarely next years dogs again. Likewise, not many markets will outperform for more than a couple years running at most. This is why we tend to re-balance our portfolios every year or so, selling our winners to buy more of our losers. Or just buy the whole market index / mixed asset fund as appropriate where it is taken care of automatically.
If you're one for following Warren Buffett's advice, people are generally fearful on China and Russia at the moment so 2022 could be the year to go overweight on those. There may be more falls to come first though.

bugbyte_2

I read somewhere that the period 1875 upto the 1st world war the Russian stock exchange out performed the US. It even rallied just before communism took hold as no one believed that the state would take everything. Then it did.

Yep. My current risk analysis means I am weary of the Chinese and Russians.

Thrugelmir

NedS said:

ProDave said:

Thrugelmir said:

ProDave said:

What is mystifying is the types of funds discussed in this thread probably down 10% in the last month or so is against a backdrop of the FTSE100 looking generally positive apart from a few blips.  I know we are not talking about FTSE trackers, but it does seem very odd that a number of high profile and previously well respected funds are falling sharply while the FTSE100 is generally up over the same period.

In summary. Investors have been net sellers of UK equities since before the Brexit referendum in 2016. Cash subsequently flowed into US stocks resulting in a disparity in valuation. As with any trade they comes a point when other markets offer better future returns. Institutional money has been flowing back into the UK more recently. With the index weighting to energy, miners and financials. Any uptick in interest rates and inflation will benefit said stocks in particular. As far as bank stocks are concerned the GFC and PPI saga's are consigned to history. 

Not a recommendation to invest in the UK per se I should add. 

This is the sort of thing I wish people would post regularly.  the turn of the year might have been a good time to switch from global funds to more UK centred funds perhaps.  Why don't we regularly see this sort of discussion on this board about what might be good, what might be bad etc.  It would be a so much more useful forum if we did.

If you're one for following Warren Buffett's advice, people are generally fearful on China and Russia at the moment so 2022 could be the year to go overweight on those. There may be more falls to come first though.

Markets are from equal though. Corporate governance standards and being one party controlling state's stand out as major risk factors. Some 54 Chinese companies were delisted from the SEHK due to a failure to publish their statutory accounts in time in 2021. 

Best to stick to the developed regulated exchanges.