Vanguard FTSE Global/Dev World ex-uk, LS80/100, all down - is it Ukraine?

solidpro

I've seen virtually everything go down significantly since the end of December. Virtually whiping out 1-2 years month on month growth - all in the space of about 3 weeks. Is it Ukraine? Is it what usually happens in January? What else is it?

Holding fast....

GeoffTF

solidpro said:

I've seen virtually everything go down significantly since the end of December. Virtually whiping out 1-2 years month on month growth - all in the space of about 3 weeks. Is it Ukraine? Is it what usually happens in January? What else is it?

Holding fast....

January is usually bullish, but the last year has not been usual. The papers are full of reasons for big stock-market moves after the event, but they never predict them before. Stock markets are unpredictable. If you are lucky, you make money. If you are not, you lose it.

dunstonh

Is it what usually happens in January? 

Dates are irrelevant.  

 What else is it?

Markets are the sum of their parts.   
   Certain industries are better placed at certain times of the economic cycle and worse at others.  With inflation and interest rates on the rise and discretionary income expected to fall, companies that rely on discretionary income go out of favour.    
Ukraine concerns are an issue.  Tech stocks are taking heavy losses as that bubble appears to have burst.
China taking a more aggressive stance to Taiwan.  Probably watching what the West does with Ukraine.
Chip production is holding industries back
Plus, a whole load of other localised events.

I've seen virtually everything go down significantly since the end of December. 

Apart from tech stocks, there is nothing that has gone down significantly since December.  you are in VLS80 & VLS100.  So you are likely to see loss periods of around 40%.     Currently, you are probably down around 8-10%.     Barely a blip.

If you consider this mild fall as being significant then you are investing above your risk profile and should address that as you are in for a big shock when you realise just how much it will fall during a major crash.

Thrugelmir

solidpro said:

I've seen virtually everything go down significantly since the end of December. Virtually whiping out 1-2 years month on month growth - all in the space of about 3 weeks. Is it Ukraine? Is it what usually happens in January? What else is it?

Holding fast....

Companies grow. Markets speculate. The real world economy has simply continued to chug along. Money flow drives markets up and down. When everybody considers global equity the place to be invested. Then momentum will push share prices higher and higher. A self fulfilling virtuous circle. The longer the run continues the greater the number of people that get drawn in. There's a fear of missing out. Shrewd investors will be monitoring events and pulling their money out of particular shares when the valuation gets frothy. They know there'll be an opportunity to buy back in at a lower price at some point of time. 

There's much speculation of the FED increasing interest rates this year. Indications are that there'll be four, though depending on economic data maybe 7/8. This is rippling through global markets. As the US$ is central to global trade and commodity prices etc. Such rises would also influence the cost of UK Government debt. 

lufase

If you're in for 20+ years you have nothing to worry about. Just keep drip feeding into it month by month and stop looking at the balance. Take the average annual returns of the next 20 years and your investments will have grown by an average of 10% each year.

mears1

Thrugelmir.  A shrewd investor - that's one of my aspirations - lots more to learn!  So, is  this the right moment to buy Global index trackers?

ranciduk

My VLS60 is really suffering too...

solidpro

I know time in the market rather than timing the market, but if January is typically bullish, does anyone here habitually switch their ISA VLS100 or similar to cash ISA for 30 days on Jan 1st and switch it back on Feb 1st?

masonic

mears1 said:

So, is  this the right moment to buy Global index trackers?

It's a better time than this time last week or last month. That's all anyone can say. Could go up or down from here. When markets are particularly volatile, comfort can be gained by spreading investments out over a few months if investing a large sum.

solidpro said:

I know time in the market rather than timing the market, but if January is typically bullish, does anyone here habitually switch their ISA VLS100 or similar to cash ISA for 30 days on Jan 1st and switch it back on Feb 1st?

No, that would be bonkers. In any case, bullish normally refers to rising markets, so why move to cash to avoid that?

Audaxer

ranciduk said:

My VLS60 is really suffering too...

VLS60 is only down 3.99% year to date. Just a blip.

Albermarle

Audaxer said:

ranciduk said:

My VLS60 is really suffering too...

VLS60 is only down 3.99% year to date. Just a blip.

Yes especially as it went up over 20% in the last two years . Money in a savings account would have gone up by maybe 2 or 3 % over the same period.