Vanguard FTSE Global/Dev World ex-uk, LS80/100, all down - is it Ukraine?

masonic

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Good to clarify this, as we see a common fixation about the price bought at and the current price. People tend to sweat the current price far too much when they have no need to sell for a very long time.

Thrugelmir

zagfles said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Well exactly. Nobody with any sense is going to buy in Nov 21 and sell in Jan 22. So being 5% down over 2 months means "diddly squat"

Didn't say anything about selling now. My reference is to the arbitary choice of time periods. The permuatations are considerable with over 200 trading days available in every year.  Those who bought at the peak of the markets in 2007 waited 6 years to recoup their capital losses. Real profit is cash in the hand, not a number on a computer screen that could change before you've had time to blink. 

zagfles

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Well exactly. Nobody with any sense is going to buy in Nov 21 and sell in Jan 22. So being 5% down over 2 months means "diddly squat"

Didn't say anything about selling now. My reference is to the arbitary choice of time periods. The permuatations are considerable with over 200 trading days available in every year.  Those who bought at the peak of the markets in 2007 waited 6 years to recoup their capital losses. Real profit is cash in the hand, not a number on a computer screen that could change before you've had time to blink. 

You mean as opposed to carefully selected choices of time period to make a point? Like the last 2 months, or 6 years since 2007?

zagfles

Billycock said:

zagfles said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Well exactly. Nobody with any sense is going to buy in Nov 21 and sell in Jan 22. So being 5% down over 2 months means "diddly squat"

A crackpot view in my book.
example -
Investor A invested £100, after 2 months he lost 5%, now has £95, 2 months later he gained 5% he now has £99.75

Investor B invested £100, after 2 months the market remained the same he still has £100, 2 months later he gained 5% he now has £105.

Isn't diddly squat after all.

And? The point was movement over 2 months mean "diddly squat" because nobody with any sense invests for 2 months. Or even 4 months. Investor C who bought a year ago doesn't give a monkeys what the price was in Nov, he's 12% up.

Audaxer

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Good to clarify this, as we see a common fixation about the price bought at and the current price. People tend to sweat the current price far too much when they have no need to sell for a very long time.

That's true, but some retirees taking income from a portfolio on a Total Return basis, may sell 4% once a year for income, or drawdown income more regularly. In these cases they will be concerned about current values and have a decision to make as whether they delay selling until their portfolio recovers. Ideally that is why I like at least some of my portfolio in dividend funds and have a cash buffer for times like this.

zagfles

Billycock said:

zagfles said:

Billycock said:

zagfles said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Well exactly. Nobody with any sense is going to buy in Nov 21 and sell in Jan 22. So being 5% down over 2 months means "diddly squat"

A crackpot view in my book.
example -
Investor A invested £100, after 2 months he lost 5%, now has £95, 2 months later he gained 5% he now has £99.75

Investor B invested £100, after 2 months the market remained the same he still has £100, 2 months later he gained 5% he now has £105.

Isn't diddly squat after all.

And? The point was movement over 2 months mean "diddly squat" because nobody with any sense invests for 2 months. Or even 4 months. Investor C who bought a year ago doesn't give a monkeys what the price was in Nov, he's 12% up.

Oh right I get your drift.
No need to be bloody cheeky though is there? You wouldn't do it face to face so there's no need to do it online either.
Keyboard warrior online, a damp squib in reality!

Says the person who called me a "crackpot"

zagfles

Audaxer said:

masonic said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Good to clarify this, as we see a common fixation about the price bought at and the current price. People tend to sweat the current price far too much when they have no need to sell for a very long time.

That's true, but some retirees taking income from a portfolio on a Total Return basis, may sell 4% once a year for income, or drawdown income more regularly. In these cases they will be concerned about current values and have a decision to make as whether they delay selling until their portfolio recovers. Ideally that is why I like at least some of my portfolio in dividend funds and have a cash buffer for times like this.

Rather than try to time the market a better way might be to sell monthly rather than annually.

In any case someone who sells annually might be quite pleased they're about 12% up since last year.

zagfles

Billycock said:

zagfles said:

Billycock said:

zagfles said:

Billycock said:

zagfles said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Well exactly. Nobody with any sense is going to buy in Nov 21 and sell in Jan 22. So being 5% down over 2 months means "diddly squat"

A crackpot view in my book.
example -
Investor A invested £100, after 2 months he lost 5%, now has £95, 2 months later he gained 5% he now has £99.75

Investor B invested £100, after 2 months the market remained the same he still has £100, 2 months later he gained 5% he now has £105.

Isn't diddly squat after all.

And? The point was movement over 2 months mean "diddly squat" because nobody with any sense invests for 2 months. Or even 4 months. Investor C who bought a year ago doesn't give a monkeys what the price was in Nov, he's 12% up.

Oh right I get your drift.
No need to be bloody cheeky though is there? You wouldn't do it face to face so there's no need to do it online either.
Keyboard warrior online, a damp squib in reality!

Says the person who called me a "crackpot"

Oh I that all I mentioned? I must have mistakenly omitted "bumbling old bore".

Jog on, keyboard warrior. You're on my ignore list, ta ta.

Sea_Shell

If you're drawing down from a portfolio of investments, pensions and cash, then each month becomes a judgement call on what to actually spend.

We plan to keep the DD going, from pension, and then make on the spot decisions about whether to reinvest it (in our ISAs) and spend cash or just spend what we've withdrawn.

Thrugelmir

zagfles said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Thrugelmir said:

zagfles said:

Are people seriously panicing about a small downturn over 3 months? VLS100 is up 12% since a year ago. Most global trackers are similar.

People are sensibly monitoring events. Retail investors are often 6 months behind the major trade movements in the markets. Somebody who bought VLS100 in November 2021 could now be down 5%.  Only two prices actually matter, the one you buy at and the one you sell at. Other performance figures mean diddly squat. 

Well exactly. Nobody with any sense is going to buy in Nov 21 and sell in Jan 22. So being 5% down over 2 months means "diddly squat"

Didn't say anything about selling now. My reference is to the arbitary choice of time periods. The permuatations are considerable with over 200 trading days available in every year.  Those who bought at the peak of the markets in 2007 waited 6 years to recoup their capital losses. Real profit is cash in the hand, not a number on a computer screen that could change before you've had time to blink. 

You mean as opposed to carefully selected choices of time period to make a point? Like the last 2 months, or 6 years since 2007?

Opinions drive markets. Ours appear to diverge when it comes to the next phase of the post Covid recovery etc. Only time will tell which of us made the right calls to navigate the choppy water that lie ahead. Delving into the past does help one understand why , when looking forward.