Vanguard FTSE Global/Dev World ex-uk, LS80/100, all down - is it Ukraine?

zagfles

ranciduk said:

• For the week, the Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.4%. 
• It was the second straight weekly climb for the three major stock gauges.

You're off message, this is a doom and gloom, the world is ending type thread. Quite amusing to those of us who invest long term in a diverse global portfolio and who don't give a monkeys about short term blips in the market and who will almost certainly be looking at 10-20% gains over the last 12 months even after recent drops.

PunishTheBunny

Rising interest rates make shares less desirable, and the rising cost of raw materials will hit some industries. Rising fuel bills will hit consumer spending hard, which will impact the economy. The shortage of computer chips isn’t helping, with companies that struggled during lockdown finding recovery hampered by inability to satisfy demand. Ukraine isn’t helping, an invasion could trigger further fuel price rises. And then we have China threatening to invade Taiwan and becoming more aggressive.

Shares have overall risen during covid, some might argue that a fall is due. 

I hope shares don’t fall lots this year as I am now withdrawing funds, rather than adding to them, but hey ho, if you can’t stand the heat in the kitchen …

masonic

PunishTheBunny said:

Rising interest rates make shares less desirable, and the rising cost of raw materials will hit some industries. Rising fuel bills will hit consumer spending hard, which will impact the economy. The shortage of computer chips isn’t helping, with companies that struggled during lockdown finding recovery hampered by inability to satisfy demand. Ukraine isn’t helping, an invasion could trigger further fuel price rises. And then we have China threatening to invade Taiwan and becoming more aggressive.

Shares have overall risen during covid, some might argue that a fall is due. 

I hope shares don’t fall lots this year as I am now withdrawing funds, rather than adding to them, but hey ho, if you can’t stand the heat in the kitchen …

It does depend to some extent on how much of those costs can be passed on to consumers. It is the producers of discretionary goods and services that are likely to be hardest hit, and that is exactly what has been seen to date. There are winners and losers in most scenarios.

One can always bring forward sales to insure against future falls, at a cost of seeing the cash erode somewhat due to inflation. Changes to interest rates are likely to make the lower end of the risk spectrum look increasingly investable.

mears1

PunishTheBunny said:

Rising interest rates make shares less desirable, and the rising cost of raw materials will hit some industries. Rising fuel bills will hit consumer spending hard, which will impact the economy. The shortage of computer chips isn’t helping, with companies that struggled during lockdown finding recovery hampered by inability to satisfy demand. Ukraine isn’t helping, an invasion could trigger further fuel price rises. And then we have China threatening to invade Taiwan and becoming more aggressive.

Shares have overall risen during covid, some might argue that a fall is due. 

I hope shares don’t fall lots this year as I am now withdrawing funds, rather than adding to them, but hey ho, if you can’t stand the heat in the kitchen …

Interesting post! But confusing for newbies....should potential investors with a long term view enter the passive global index fund scenario to get into the MSE Mantra of being in the market rather than time the market?

PunishTheBunny

mears1 said:

PunishTheBunny said:

Rising interest rates make shares less desirable, and the rising cost of raw materials will hit some industries. Rising fuel bills will hit consumer spending hard, which will impact the economy. The shortage of computer chips isn’t helping, with companies that struggled during lockdown finding recovery hampered by inability to satisfy demand. Ukraine isn’t helping, an invasion could trigger further fuel price rises. And then we have China threatening to invade Taiwan and becoming more aggressive.

Shares have overall risen during covid, some might argue that a fall is due. 

I hope shares don’t fall lots this year as I am now withdrawing funds, rather than adding to them, but hey ho, if you can’t stand the heat in the kitchen …

Interesting post! But confusing for newbies....should potential investors with a long term view enter the passive global index fund scenario to get into the MSE Mantra of being in the market rather than time the market?

The accepted view is that you cannot time the market, and that what matters most is time in the market. A cautious approach is to drip feed funds in, but if you already have a lump sum, some would advise investing it all now, or perhaps in two lumps six months apart.

Regarding passive/index funds - the forum darling - they don’t give you access to small companies. 

masonic

mears1 said:

PunishTheBunny said:

Rising interest rates make shares less desirable, and the rising cost of raw materials will hit some industries. Rising fuel bills will hit consumer spending hard, which will impact the economy. The shortage of computer chips isn’t helping, with companies that struggled during lockdown finding recovery hampered by inability to satisfy demand. Ukraine isn’t helping, an invasion could trigger further fuel price rises. And then we have China threatening to invade Taiwan and becoming more aggressive.

Shares have overall risen during covid, some might argue that a fall is due. 

I hope shares don’t fall lots this year as I am now withdrawing funds, rather than adding to them, but hey ho, if you can’t stand the heat in the kitchen …

Interesting post! But confusing for newbies....should potential investors with a long term view enter the passive global index fund scenario to get into the MSE Mantra of being in the market rather than time the market?

Generally newbie investors would start by investing relatively small sums regularly. What happens in the early years therefore has less impact on their overall outcome than someone managing their life savings in their twilight years. It can be a good thing for a new investor to experience a crash early in their investment journey, with some money on the table to make it real, but not too much. They will learn about their own risk tolerance without the impact on their future being too significant. If you were a newbie going in with a very large sum of money at the outset, then time in the market could be taken off the table if you have a particularly bad experience and decide to throw in the towel. So there are psychological considerations as well as considering the strategy most likely to deliver the best outcome.

Prism

mears1 said:

Interesting post! But confusing for newbies....should potential investors with a long term view enter the passive global index fund scenario to get into the MSE Mantra of being in the market rather than time the market?

Most employed adults are already drip feeding monthly into index funds for their retirement.

PunishTheBunny

Prism said:

mears1 said:

Interesting post! But confusing for newbies....should potential investors with a long term view enter the passive global index fund scenario to get into the MSE Mantra of being in the market rather than time the market?

Most employed adults are already drip feeding monthly into index funds for their retirement.

Do you have a source for that? It’s certainly true that most employed adults are drip feeding money into a pension fund. A lot of pension funds are active, and the cynic might suggest that the primary aim is to ensure the pension company gets a nice regular income,. 

Prism

PunishTheBunny said:

Prism said:

mears1 said:

Interesting post! But confusing for newbies....should potential investors with a long term view enter the passive global index fund scenario to get into the MSE Mantra of being in the market rather than time the market?

Most employed adults are already drip feeding monthly into index funds for their retirement.

Do you have a source for that? It’s certainly true that most employed adults are drip feeding money into a pension fund. A lot of pension funds are active, and the cynic might suggest that the primary aim is to ensure the pension company gets a nice regular income,. 

Yes I'm talking about pension funds. Most people never switch out of the default fund and every major default fund nowadays seems to be a multi-asset based on index trackers. The only income the pension company gets is the platform fee which in many cases is in the same ballpark as a retail SIPP.

Thrugelmir

PunishTheBunny said:

Prism said:

mears1 said:

Interesting post! But confusing for newbies....should potential investors with a long term view enter the passive global index fund scenario to get into the MSE Mantra of being in the market rather than time the market?

Most employed adults are already drip feeding monthly into index funds for their retirement.

Do you have a source for that? It’s certainly true that most employed adults are drip feeding money into a pension fund. A lot of pension funds are active, and the cynic might suggest that the primary aim is to ensure the pension company gets a nice regular income,. 

Are passive fund managers any better?  Requires far less resource to track an index.