Holiday going ahead but country now wont allow unvaccinated - am I eligible for a refund/free change

MiserlyMartin

lisyloo said:

The bit about the Philippines is interesting to me as I’ve had a holiday booked there since Jan 2020. That does explain why they are less bothered than other places, so thank you  for that.

personally I think short term things could get get worse - check out the world daily cases graph !!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

omicron is now rising in places like USA, India, South America

I wouldn’t be surprised to see India in the news again because with 1.3 billion population their numbers will go large.

we have (just about) managed in this country by sending the army into hospitals, but some other countries (like India) just don’t have the same access to resources that we do (see oxygen during delta) or in some cases the vaccination rates or the vaccines.
so I think whilst medium term things will improve (due to omicron being milder), in the short term they could get worse as other countries either take a different view or don’t have our resources.

Whilst I don't like to compare countries as their data collection policies can differ, looking at the worldometer link in your post it shows some interesting stats about India compared to the rest of the world, eg the UK....

If you sort the columns to rank by Total cases/1M population:

UK    Rank 11th highest in the world : 218,727

India Rank 139 - near the bottom: 139 (thats only 139!)

If you sort the columns to rank by Total deaths/1M population:

UK    Rank 31st highest in the world : 2,212

India Rank 130 - near the bottom: 346

I have Indian friends and they tell me that the situation there quite good - not what they paint on the UK media, those stats seem to confirm what they say. The country hasn't been as locked down as we have, they live many to a house in close contact with others, they have a far lower vaccination rate. They treat covid with drugs, such as ivermectin. So really they are doing very well there despite being a so called third world country with a third world healthcare system.

The UK stats are flawed however, because they put down anyone who died 'with covid' not of covid as a covid death (even though you might have been fallen off a ladder but the body was tested for covid  - positive so goes down as covid death). The ONS around Nov 2020 I think it was - started to combine flu death numbers with covid death numbers stats so that is also making the UK look worse than it is. (If you don't remember them doing that, or don't believe me, check the ONS site.

What the real covid death numbers are in the UK is anyones guess, maybe ask Boris or Whitty and Valance???   Valance has resigned now, I wonder why..

GingerTim

MiserlyMartin said:

lisyloo said:

The

The ONS around Nov 2020 I think it was - started to combine flu death numbers with covid death numbers stats so that is also making the UK look worse than it is.

No they didn't. Here is the mortality breakdown for November 2020 from the ONS, distinguishing - as they do every month - between Covid deaths and flu deaths.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/november2020#leading-causes-of-death

MiserlyMartin said:

 Valance has resigned now, I wonder why..

No he hasn't.

y3sitsm3

Phantom151 said:

MiserlyMartin said:

soolin said:

I do agree that this is now hopefully burning itself out, but I imagine a scenario where I get my Covid jab every year along side my flu one. This is especially important with many countries who won’t have much herd immunity or antibodies, either through a policy of isolation or being unable to vaccinate much of their population - and not willing to let us in without a jab. 

Countries which have low levels of vaccination will have herd immunity. It doesn't matter if you are naturally immune or through vaccination, you are still immune. Don't forget this is a cold now. But there will never be a cure for the common cold, but there is a cure for covid - carry on as normal and stop killing people and world economies.

There is no sterilising immunity from covid. Neither vaccination nor catching covid gives long term protection. So far we are lucky that this mutation has been mild but there is no guarantee that the next will be. There is no cure for covid either so stop spreading misleading information.

And there's nothing to suggest it will be more deadly.

When was the last time the common cold mutated into a more deadly form?  Or any virus for that matter?

To paraphrase you "stop spreading misleading information"

Upsidedownandaround

jimi_man said:

Thrugelmir said:

jimi_man said:

ripplyuk said:

That ‘mild cold’ is hospitalising an awful lot of kids 

As always the devil is in the detail. How many of those have been hospitalised because of Covid or hospitalised for something else and have tested positive for Covid but aren't ill with it? Also how many have picked it up whilst in hospital? With under 12's not being routinely vaccinated they are going to pick it up quicker than if you have been vaccinated.

Perhaps we should return to the days of Witch Doctors and not bother with the NHS at all. 

I have absolutely no idea what you mean by that? Personally I'd rather stay with the NHS but if you're one for witch doctors then that's your right to believe in that.

It seems that a lot of people at the moment - far more than previously - are going into hospital with something else but are testing positive for Covid when they get there or after they've been there - picking it up in hospital. That obviously affects the figures.

Omicron stats are huge, but look beyond them - BBC News

That article was over a week ago and some more encouraging news since then is that the the latest suggestions are that the peak has been reached and hospitalisations are slowing down and also that NHS staff absences due to Covid are also reducing. So, fingers crossed and hopefully the travel industry will pick up. 

He seems to have an issue with people who have the audacity to try and put statistics in to their correct context.

Phantom151

y3sitsm3 said:

To paraphrase you "stop spreading misleading information"

It wasn't the mutating point that was misleading. It was the immunity and cure part. Mutations can go either way but it is possible to catch covid over and over again. We have to hope that it carries on mutating into less deadly strains but it is not guaranteed.

jimi_man

MiserlyMartin said:

lisyloo said:

The bit about the Philippines is interesting to me as I’ve had a holiday booked there since Jan 2020. That does explain why they are less bothered than other places, so thank you  for that.

personally I think short term things could get get worse - check out the world daily cases graph !!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

omicron is now rising in places like USA, India, South America

I wouldn’t be surprised to see India in the news again because with 1.3 billion population their numbers will go large.

we have (just about) managed in this country by sending the army into hospitals, but some other countries (like India) just don’t have the same access to resources that we do (see oxygen during delta) or in some cases the vaccination rates or the vaccines.
so I think whilst medium term things will improve (due to omicron being milder), in the short term they could get worse as other countries either take a different view or don’t have our resources.

Whilst I don't like to compare countries as their data collection policies can differ, looking at the worldometer link in your post it shows some interesting stats about India compared to the rest of the world, eg the UK....

If you sort the columns to rank by Total cases/1M population:

UK    Rank 11th highest in the world : 218,727

India Rank 139 - near the bottom: 139 (thats only 139!)

If you sort the columns to rank by Total deaths/1M population:

UK    Rank 31st highest in the world : 2,212

India Rank 130 - near the bottom: 346

I have Indian friends and they tell me that the situation there quite good - not what they paint on the UK media, those stats seem to confirm what they say. The country hasn't been as locked down as we have, they live many to a house in close contact with others, they have a far lower vaccination rate. They treat covid with drugs, such as ivermectin. So really they are doing very well there despite being a so called third world country with a third world healthcare system.

The UK stats are flawed however, because they put down anyone who died 'with covid' not of covid as a covid death (even though you might have been fallen off a ladder but the body was tested for covid  - positive so goes down as covid death). The ONS around Nov 2020 I think it was - started to combine flu death numbers with covid death numbers stats so that is also making the UK look worse than it is. (If you don't remember them doing that, or don't believe me, check the ONS site.

What the real covid death numbers are in the UK is anyones guess, maybe ask Boris or Whitty and Valance???   Valance has resigned now, I wonder why..

In terms of cases, that seems to be a purely a function of how many people you test. The UK has one of the heaviest testing regimes in the world for the size of population. Per head of population we've tested 12 times as many tests compared to India.

In terms of death rates, as I've posted recently, obesity levels play a huge factor. The UK is ranked 36/191 in the world for obesity levels - pretty much the highest in Europe; India is 188/191. 

As you say, data collection varies and there are plenty of other factors too. 

Ibrahim5

There is a whole science developing around whether it is worth discussing COVID with anti vaxxers. The consensus appears to be that it is pointless. If you try to make them see sense then you are seen as part of the mainstream and so shouldn't be believed. These discussions just go round in circles.

jimi_man

Well I wasn’t aware that we were? But in any case if you don’t discuss things or talk then there is nothing else left. 

y3sitsm3

Phantom151 said:

y3sitsm3 said:

To paraphrase you "stop spreading misleading information"

It wasn't the mutating point that was misleading. It was the immunity and cure part. Mutations can go either way but it is possible to catch covid over and over again. We have to hope that it carries on mutating into less deadly strains but it is not guaranteed.

Saying they can "go either way" suggests that it's a 50/50 chance. It isn't.  It essentially never is.

It's a remote possibility vs what essentially always happens, it mutates and becomes less deadly.  As "Omicron" has and as everyone who wasn't a bedwetter or the media expected.

How would a virus survive if it is as transmissible but more deadly?

GingerTim

y3sitsm3 said:

Phantom151 said:

y3sitsm3 said:

To paraphrase you "stop spreading misleading information"

It wasn't the mutating point that was misleading. It was the immunity and cure part. Mutations can go either way but it is possible to catch covid over and over again. We have to hope that it carries on mutating into less deadly strains but it is not guaranteed.

Saying they can "go either way" suggests that it's a 50/50 chance. It isn't.  It essentially never is.

It's a remote possibility vs what essentially always happens, it mutates and becomes less deadly.  As "Omicron" has and as everyone who wasn't a bedwetter or the media expected.

How would a virus survive if it is as transmissible but more deadly?

You are ascribing sentience to a virus which really doesn't care if it harms or kills the people it infects. Plus, as the scientists in the article below point out, it's not correct to say that Omicron straightforwardly evolved from Delta or Alpha and is a 'milder' form of that.

Nothing to do with being a 'bedwetter', it's just that viral evolution is a lot more complex than just thinking, however comforting, that they always get less dangerous. I wish polio and Ebola would.

(You asked in an earlier message when was the last time a virus evolved into something deadlier - the obvious answer is Covid. Alpha and Delta were and are more dangerous than the OG strain.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/11/will-covid-19-become-less-dangerous-as-it-evolves?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

"Those stating that viruses become less deadly over time often cite influenza. Both of the flu viruses responsible for the 1918 Spanish flu and 2009 swine flu pandemics eventually evolved to become less dangerous. However, the 1918 virus is thought to have become more deadly before it became milder. And other viruses, such as Ebola, have become more dangerous over time.

“It’s a fallacy that viruses or pathogens become milder. If a virus can continue to be transmitted and cause lots of disease, it will,” said Prof David Robertson, head of viral genomics and bioinformatics at the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Virus Research.

Viruses aim to create as many copies of themselves and spread as widely as possible. Although it is not always in their best interests to kill their hosts, so long as they are transmitted before this happens, it doesn’t matter. Sars-CoV-2 doesn’t kill people during the period when it is most infectious; people tend to die two to three weeks after becoming ill. Provided it does not evolve to make people so ill that they do not, or cannot, mix with other people while they are infectious, the virus doesn’t care if there are some casualties along the way.

Neither is it clear that Sars-CoV-2 is becoming progressively milder. Omicron appears to be less severe than the Alpha or Delta variants – but both of these variants caused more severe illness than the original Wuhan strain. Importantly, viral evolution is not a one-way street: Omicron did not evolve from Delta, and Delta didn’t evolve from Alpha – it is more random and unpredictable than that.

“These [variants of concern] are not going one from the other, and so if that pattern continues, and another variant pops out in six months, it could be worse,” said Robertson. “It’s important not to assume that there’s some inevitability for Omicron to be the end of Sars-CoV-2’s evolution.”

There is a possibility that Omicron is so transmissible that it has hit a ceiling whereby future variants will struggle to outcompete it. But just a few months ago, people were saying the same thing about Delta. Also, Omicron is likely to keep evolving. “What might play out is that as Omicron infects so many people, it’s harder for that first Omicron [variant] to continue to be as successful, and so that creates a space for a virus that’s better at evading the immune response,” Robertson said."