Holiday going ahead but country now wont allow unvaccinated - am I eligible for a refund/free change

jimi_man

Sorry, I think we're talking at cross purposes here. When I say 'pick up', I mean improve from what it was in 2020. I'm not expecting it to go to pre pandemic levels for some while - if ever.

Personally I'm not concerned about being able to travel, but my wife (and various other members of my family) are aircrew for a large 'favourite' airline, so her and their job security is much more of a concern. The airline has shrunk considerably so a return to pre pandemic level of operations would not be possible at the moment anyway. As it happens they've had to start a recruitment drive, restore temporary part time back to full time, encourage staff to come back from unpaid leave and staff are working extremely hard to cope with the increased demand. They've had to scale up the return of some of their aircraft earlier than they had anticipated and discussions around unpaid leave over the winter have been shelved. So things have improved.

I agree with most of the other points you made.

Point 6 is an interesting one. At the moment China and probably NZ are the two that fit into that category. However they are going to come hugely unstuck at some point, simply because of their total lack of community immunity. Whilst the rest of the world has built up levels of immunity towards C19, they have none, which pretty much condemns them to continuing their restrictions forever more. It will be interesting to see how they deal with that.

Point 5 is also interesting. I agree with it in general, however countries such as the Philippines have a large industrial base so tourism isn't so important. Smaller places like Caribbean Islands rely on tourism so cannot afford to 'close'.     

lisyloo

The bit about the Philippines is interesting to me as I’ve had a holiday booked there since Jan 2020. That does explain why they are less bothered than other places, so thank you  for that.

personally I think short term things could get get worse - check out the world daily cases graph !!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

omicron is now rising in places like USA, India, South America

I wouldn’t be surprised to see India in the news again because with 1.3 billion population their numbers will go large.

we have (just about) managed in this country by sending the army into hospitals, but some other countries (like India) just don’t have the same access to resources that we do (see oxygen during delta) or in some cases the vaccination rates or the vaccines.
so I think whilst medium term things will improve (due to omicron being milder), in the short term they could get worse as other countries either take a different view or don’t have our resources.
my view is that Boris Johnson’s policy is regarded by many as an “unethical experiment” and he has only just got away with it but at a cost that is not yet fully quantified or understood e.g. the toll of long covid.
Other countries may well decide not to go down the same path.

on a personal basis it very much depends on where you want to go. I am certainly considering the Caribbean. Worst case it wouldn’t be the end of the world to call the boss and say “sorry I’m stuck in Barbados” :-)

jimi_man

Well yes, in relation to cases however if less people are dying then that's a good thing. And that's what seems to be happening. One of the problems we have in the UK (and the US as well as other Western Countries) is that people are so overweight/obese, which has hugely exacerbated the amount of people dying due to Covid. Interesting article in the BMJ which suggests that in obese countries, the death rates are 10 x higher in countries where over 50% of the population has a BMI of over 25.

Covid-19: Highest death rates seen in countries with most overweight populations | The BMJ

If ever there was a time to lose weight, then it is now (or was in March 2020 ideally!)

Yes we have a little Caribbean trip in March, with a Euro break in Feb and skiing this month. I'll sort something out for April and May nearer the time!

I like to do my bit for the airlines/CO2 emissions.  

Thrugelmir

lisyloo said:

omicron is now rising in places like USA, India, South America

I wouldn’t be surprised to see India in the news again because with 1.3 billion population their numbers will go large.

The lack of testing means that reported numbers are understated. The UK has some of the best resource facilities in the world. Given the nature of Covid and how it gets passed on . Any high density population area is going to be hit hard. Country comparisons in themselves are meaningless. 

MiserlyMartin

soolin said:

I do agree that this is now hopefully burning itself out, but I imagine a scenario where I get my Covid jab every year along side my flu one. This is especially important with many countries who won’t have much herd immunity or antibodies, either through a policy of isolation or being unable to vaccinate much of their population - and not willing to let us in without a jab. 

Countries which have low levels of vaccination will have herd immunity. It doesn't matter if you are naturally immune or through vaccination, you are still immune. Don't forget this is a cold now. But there will never be a cure for the common cold, but there is a cure for covid - carry on as normal and stop killing people and world economies.

MiserlyMartin

Quick, let the scientists know I'm sure they'll be greatful for your input!

The scientists already know, they have known since South African scientists gave them the data. All of the SAGE modelling has been completely incorrect and inaccurate as they have been throughout this two years of hell, which they created.

MiserlyMartin

lisyloo said:

I am booked to the Philippines, they are completely CLOSED to tourism.
a million miles off what you described.

vaccines are relevant to most other countries.

It depends which country. Isolation periods have been cut in the USA, tests are described as useless, and now here isolation has been cut. It's clear that the NHS has not been anywhere near being overwhelmed as was the fear and reason for the December new restrictions, so its time to go back to where we were in August. Boris said, don't forget, that this was the irreversible roadmap out of lockdown.

elsien

Yeah, Boris says a lot of things….

MiserlyMartin

jimi_man said:

Point 6 is an interesting one. At the moment China and probably NZ are the two that fit into that category. However they are going to come hugely unstuck at some point, simply because of their total lack of community immunity. Whilst the rest of the world has built up levels of immunity towards C19, they have none, which pretty much condemns them to continuing their restrictions forever more. It will be interesting to see how they deal with that.

I totally agree with this. By locking down and hard too, they are actually prolonging the pandemic within their country. They are killing their people through lockdown too, as their health systems concentrate on covid and not other more common illnesses - heart disease, strokes, cancer and of course the mental health damage of lockdowns and social isolation

Phantom151

MiserlyMartin said:

soolin said:

I do agree that this is now hopefully burning itself out, but I imagine a scenario where I get my Covid jab every year along side my flu one. This is especially important with many countries who won’t have much herd immunity or antibodies, either through a policy of isolation or being unable to vaccinate much of their population - and not willing to let us in without a jab. 

Countries which have low levels of vaccination will have herd immunity. It doesn't matter if you are naturally immune or through vaccination, you are still immune. Don't forget this is a cold now. But there will never be a cure for the common cold, but there is a cure for covid - carry on as normal and stop killing people and world economies.

There is no sterilising immunity from covid. Neither vaccination nor catching covid gives long term protection. So far we are lucky that this mutation has been mild but there is no guarantee that the next will be. There is no cure for covid either so stop spreading misleading information.