Energy news in general

StartledJesus

These are the consultation documents and blog published by Ofgem on 20/6/2022

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/policy-consultation-strengthening-financial-resilience?utm_medium=email&utm_source=dotMailer&utm_campaign=Daily-Alert_20-06-2022&utm_content=Policy+Consultation:+Strengthening+Financial+Resilience&dm_i=1QCB,7WR5G,7DAEHV,WBBTI,1

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/statutory-consultation-strengthening-fixed-direct-debit-rules?utm_medium=email&utm_source=dotMailer&utm_campaign=Daily-Alert_20-06-2022&utm_content=Statutory+Consultation:+Strengthening+fixed+direct+debit+rules&dm_i=1QCB,7WR5G,7DAEHV,WBBTI,1

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/statutory-consultation-supplier-control-over-material-assets?utm_medium=email&utm_source=dotMailer&utm_campaign=Daily-Alert_20-06-2022&utm_content=Statutory+Consultation:+Supplier+control+over+material+assets&dm_i=1QCB,7WR5G,7DAEHV,WBBTI,1

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news-and-views/blog/blog-jonathan-brearley-ceo-ofgem-building-stronger-financially-stable-energy-suppliers-can-weather-gas-crisis?utm_medium=email&utm_source=dotMailer&utm_campaign=Daily-Alert_20-06-2022&utm_content=BLOG:+Jonathan+Brearley,+CEO,+Ofgem:+Building+stronger,+financially+stable+energy+suppliers+that+can+weather+the+gas+crisis&dm_i=1QCB,7WR5G,7DAEHV,WBBTI,1

Sorry if the links are inelegant. I must dig out my 'elegant links' notes.

StartledJesus

Further bad news, Ofgem proposals, and reactions. 

https://www.cityam.com/household-energy-bills-to-hit-3000-per-year/

StartledJesus

Octopus shakes its tentacles

https://www.cityam.com/ofgem-risks-over-regulating-energy-sector-in-favour-of-turgid-incumbents-warns-octopus/ 

michaels

1) Diversified incumbent with large balance sheet in favour of anti-competitive practice tha twill reduce competition 'shock'

Every customer is protected by the SOLR system so doesn't care.

2) Whereas moves to reduce credit balance build up in summer directly increases the likelihood of uncovered customer defaults come the winter which means higher bills for those who do pay.

How is it so easy to use emotive language to make people think they want things that are actually the direct opposite of their best interests?   Does no one ever stop to apply a reality filter?

QrizB

michaels said:

Every customer is protected by the SOLR system so doesn't care.

There are a fair few people posting on this forum who begrudge the SOLR levy on their standing charges (example).

michaels

wakeupalarm said:

I don't get CornwallInsights calculation.  1 week of higher wholesale prices and the cap rises to 51% increase! 
Do they really think all the energy companies are buying every time the wholesale price peaks?

I think we are being played by the energy companies in cahoots with Ofgem.

We went from energy companies buying up to 2 years in advance, to the new energy companies buying on the day of usage with customers funds, to now making up the figures to what ever they feel like without any transparency.

Cos like every energy company has perfect foresight and buys forward at the dips....in which case why even bother with energy supply to customers, if you can call the markets perfectly you will already have more money than you could ever spend.

Or ofgem assumes purchases are made at 6 months out as a simplification and works out the average price over the period.  Would you rather go back to companies hoping they can buy on the day cheaply enough not to go bankrupt? - didn't think so.

QrizB

Interestingly, the Low Carbon Contracts Company (who administer the CfDs) are forecasting wholesale electricity prices ("IMRP") of around £233/MWh for the quarter July-September:

https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/dashboards/cfd/levy-dashboards/interim-levy-rate-and-total-reserve-amount

They're also forecasting a CfD surplus (a reverse levy, if you will) of more than £100M per month for that quarter.

(Yes, I realise these are synthetic forecasts for budget planning purposes and we'll only know the actual prices with hindsight.)

michaels

QrizB said:

Interestingly, the Low Carbon Contracts Company (who administer the CfDs) are forecasting wholesale electricity prices ("IMRP") of around £233/MWh for the quarter July-September:

https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/dashboards/cfd/levy-dashboards/interim-levy-rate-and-total-reserve-amount

They're also forecasting a CfD surplus (a reverse levy, if you will) of more than £100M per month for that quarter.

(Yes, I realise these are synthetic forecasts for budget planning purposes and we'll only know the actual prices with hindsight.)

No doubt those complaining about the 'green levies' go a little bit quiet when it is explained to them that those 'levies' are actually reducing bills

wakeupalarm

michaels said:

wakeupalarm said:

I don't get CornwallInsights calculation.  1 week of higher wholesale prices and the cap rises to 51% increase! 
Do they really think all the energy companies are buying every time the wholesale price peaks?

I think we are being played by the energy companies in cahoots with Ofgem.

We went from energy companies buying up to 2 years in advance, to the new energy companies buying on the day of usage with customers funds, to now making up the figures to what ever they feel like without any transparency.

Cos like every energy company has perfect foresight and buys forward at the dips....in which case why even bother with energy supply to customers, if you can call the markets perfectly you will already have more money than you could ever spend.

Or ofgem assumes purchases are made at 6 months out as a simplification and works out the average price over the period.  Would you rather go back to companies hoping they can buy on the day cheaply enough not to go bankrupt? - didn't think so.

And you are taking one week of higher prices and assuming every remaining week is at the same high rate.
Where did I claim to be able to call markets perfectly?  Resulting to dismissive insults isn't going to get you far.

markin

michaels said:

QrizB said:

Interestingly, the Low Carbon Contracts Company (who administer the CfDs) are forecasting wholesale electricity prices ("IMRP") of around £233/MWh for the quarter July-September:

https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/dashboards/cfd/levy-dashboards/interim-levy-rate-and-total-reserve-amount

They're also forecasting a CfD surplus (a reverse levy, if you will) of more than £100M per month for that quarter.

(Yes, I realise these are synthetic forecasts for budget planning purposes and we'll only know the actual prices with hindsight.)

No doubt those complaining about the 'green levies' go a little bit quiet when it is explained to them that those 'levies' are actually reducing bills

Well now you have to go back over the 15+ years of data and tell us if cdf's are a profit or loss.