Energy news in general

Scot_39

More potential bad news for next cap - based on month ahead gas prices - reapproaching Sep peaks having backed off about 25-30p say in the interim.

And about 20p on the levels on the week upto the 6th/7th - the last time MSE updated it's supplier cap predictions

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Be interesting to see how the 20p increase since around the 6th impacts the next set of suppliers estimates for next cap - given still have c5 weeks to go in averaging window (to Nov 17th iirc) - maybe MSE will update there page here tomorrow -

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/energy-price-cap-prediction/

As of 6th/7th estimates from the 3 - an ave of £2084 at new TDCVs according to the table.

Suppliers already up c4% on the not too long ago CI £1999 forecast that made media headlines.

Aside

But the MSE table looks slightly wrong to me right now - as my ave of £2083,£2080 and £2065 gives £2076 not £2084.

Maybe EOn should be £2088 for Jan 1st cap period ?

(If use BG and the 2 quoted Jan % changes - 2080/1.207*1.212 = c 2088 and then (2083+2080+2088)/3=c2084)

QrizB

More potential bad news for next cap

On MSE's composite figures, we could be looking at a 20% increase in Jan and ~no change in Apr.

Not great.

Scot_39

Yes feeling its going to be an expensive one or a cold one - or both.

And for me probably far worse than 2022/23 was - without any sign of an EBSS style payment.

IIRC my figures - the CI £1999 was around £2368 sh at the old cap (I'd have to go back) - far higher than the defacto cap of arguably £2100 (EPG £2500-EBSS £400). Another 4% puts that at £2462

What_time_is_it

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82166761#Comment_82166761

Lots of unknowns still to play out before Nov 17th of course, but I think the increase for 2027 Q1 will be at least 25-30%.

Netexporter

Those of us on Agile are already paying the prices that the January price cap will be based on. Daily average price has been well over 30p/kWh, on many(most?) days for a good while. So, yes, the SVT could well be in the region of 35p for the January quarter.

debitcardmayhem

Gas at 09.35 today

bristolleedsfan

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82167052#Comment_82167052

Cornwall Insights current prediction for average regional unit rates from 1 January. £0.3028 E £0.0976 G

Scot_39

As my above post the CI price is now low compared to the supplier CURRENT (and I cannot stress that enough - the window isn't closed) estimates.

Last weeks - when gas prices lower - just over 4% (£2084 ave vs £1999)

But around 2-3 weeks ago when prices more consistently over the 200p/therm - the estimates have been higher - I remember one supplier being c£2152 (Eon ?) towards late Sep - thats more like 7.5%.

Edit : Ofgem dont make it easy as redact live prices they use for actual caps in publicised spreadsheets - but if I read their annex 2 wholesale spreadsheet correctly today's aver 7.97p retail non PPM - comes from a raw price closer to £40.24/MWh - 4.02p/kWh - or c118p/therm. Some offsets absolute like WHD, others like VAT %. So its not a linear scales - but make no mistakes these current prices are a long way from last cap window (mid May mid Aug).

As not sure which ICIS price Ofgem actually uses for cap - the sort of 120p level doesnt look silly vs say looking at those TE futures charts and see that sort of level (from mid may to mid Aug - sub 100p lows to over 150p towards end of window)

I suspect if things dont change for the better soon - we are sadly heading - not for a headline cap due to lower tdcvs (twice since winter 22/23) or average bills - but potentially into area where many folks rates will be over the 2022/23 era EPG p/kWh floor levels of c33/34p even after vat cut and c10.3p gas respectively.