Energy news in general

The_Groat_Counter

Whilst I was amused by those optimists back at the beginning of the Iran conflict saying things like 'this will all blow over in a few weeks time', I'm aware there's the other side of the same coin - that of being a doom-monger, and perhaps even revelling in it.

However looking at the geopolitical situation, it's hard to see reasons for any great improvement in outlook in the near term.

debitcardmayhem

Perhaps they should approve Jackdaw , If it's a bad winter on mainland Europe they may not be inclined to export to us.

The_Groat_Counter

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82151669#Comment_82151669

I think approval is in the pipeline, so to speak.

QrizB

Here's the latest cap forecast from EON Next (I don't know the date, but it's current as I type this):

We're not into EPG territory yet but January's going to be pricey.

michaels

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82151709#Comment_82151709

What would the equivalent of the old £2.5k EPG be now with the lower notional usage?

Edit: A quic google suggests the old cap rate with the current avrage usage would have had the EPG at £2102 so liekly we will be higher than that come January. Luckily the maths is slightly difficult so the govt won't get challenged on it the way they should be….

Scot_39

These are old - given the recent spiking since the the start of the window - but show the stark difference even just one TDCV change has made to the sort of numbers the cap would have gotten too.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

Post July	Pre July	Pre Oct 2023
£1872	£2107	£2208 (200E@28.33 +500G@8.94)
	+12.5%	+18%
2500 kWh	2700kWh	2900kWh
9500 kWh	11500kWh	12000kWh
And using those % on Eon
£2118	£2400	£2500

Edit to use table

You would have to know the EOn unit rates to adjust properly - do they publish them ? Bit if Take the EOn Number and apply the same percentages as a crass fag packet estimate. So pretty much - luckily enough on the old EPG at the old TDCVs in place.

[The CI numbers are far lower as based on Aug prices on 25th - the month ahead futures for gas was relatively low "only" c165p/therm but ramping steeply - its been over 205 at peak and around 180p now today. A conservative guestimate for the last month over 190p - so 25p or around 15% higher - which isnt that far from the ratio of Eon to CI numbers at new TDCV

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas#historical

And their Aug pricing unit rates were already c28p and c9p.]

The EOn £2118 for post July TDCV is around £250 higher than the Aug CI number of £1872 - so add maybe as a crass estimate based on both fuels rising equally (unlikely ?) - (2118-300)/(1872-300)=15%.

And that 15% would take the CI unit rates to 32.7p 10.4p

And it should be remembered for folk struggling and cutting use well below tdcv - its the rate and not the full cap change in £££s - that will impact their winter costs.

One just below the old discounted EPG floor rate for electric (34p) and other just above the old EPG discounted floor rate for Gas (10.3p).

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-bills-support/energy-price-guarantee-up-until-30-june-2023

But we also need to remember EBSS - £400 over 6 months.

But the reality is that focussing on the EPG over the winter of 2022.23 is not what we faced before during Ukraine - since most normal domestic connections also received the EBSS £400.

A crass simplification say lowering the EPG cap £2500-400 to £2100.

And the EOn number is now over that for both Jan and Apr even ignoring the TDCV factor.

And £400 a far more generous offer than the current 5% vat reduction for 6m on only electric - which might change by budget time this year.

Take the same c18% above for TDCVs at Aug unit rates - and that net of EBSS £2100 would be more like £1780 - and so the EOn £2118 - already c£338 (oops) higher than the cost many could be viewed to have paid that winter / year. Nearer £30pm on an annualised DD plan.

Low Users

And for lower users - of course - the EBSS was far more significant an impact on their effective unit rates or total discounted cost (if as per my non standard tariff EPG operated - acting as a unit rate discount - shown on my bills as such).

My forecast bill under EPG rates was around c£1400-1500 inc c£200 SC at previous years consumption - unit costs say £1200 - the EBSS reduced that unit cost from £12-1300 to £8-900 - another say third off. Not the c34p average EPG offered - but more like 23-24p.

So I - and many other low - moderate users - arguably already paying more than did over the year Oct22-Oct23 of peak Ukraine crisis (9m under EPG discount protection and 3m after)

Scot_39

Cornwall insights updated forecast again today.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press-releases/16-price-cap-rise-forecast-in-january/

£1872 above -→ £1999

Unit rates 30.28p E and 9.76p G.

And putting it into historical tdcv 4 years ago at Ukraine peak epg era when raw cap hit iiirc £4279.

So making the 2022/23 tdcv more like

£1999+2500×0.0976+400x0.3028=£2364.

C£1900 below market rate - but well above epg-ebss £2100, below epg £2500.

Not everyone was cap protected in 2022/23, many on commercial / communal likely still not & not everyone got full ebss either iirc. So compare your own benchmark.

But remember were only iirc c6 weeks into averaging window 19aug-17nov?), so this only another interim forecast

Ildhund

@Scot_39 wrote:

Cornwall insights updated forecast again today.

Strange times. I decided to stick with the Standard Variable tariff for the next quarter, giving a negligible decrease in costs. At the time, the soothsayers were all predicting a 24% increase in the price cap from 1 January 2027, and I was rather hoping that TPTB would balk at inflicting that sort of burden on poor old folk like me, however they chose to do it. Now CI are saying the increase will be 'only' 16%, I'm less confident of getting some sort of handout to soften the blow. Perhaps I should have fixed after all.

Scot_39

@Ildhund

If you were going by what happened last time - people on fixes still got help - thats where the floor prices came in - they were discounted to the floor prices.

There was a period when people were fixing on the way up - at not just higher than the EPG - but higher than the EPG plus first quarter discount.

In reality iirc some were let out of such adverse fixes - to get back to floor rates / £2500 - when even removing the c17p and c2p wouldn't have reached floor.

The EPG operated for 9 months iirc (with electricity receiving discounts of c17p, c33p and c19p (or were they the other way around) - sorry cannot remember the edge gas numbers - centre iirc upto c6.7p discount to pull market cap 17p down to the 10.3p.

debitcardmayhem

E-on/OVO Deal approved to make them the biggest c9.6M customers

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/e-on-ovo-competition-and-markets-authority-b1299091.html