Crypto Dabble.

tebbins

darren232002 said:

tebbins said:

Please stop spreading dangerous misinformation. 

So, the fact that there are high interest yielding products out there other than the < 1% products offered by banks and that its possible to hedge risk away is 'dangerous misinformation' on a savings and investment forum. Got it. 

tebbins said:

Clearly loaning your cryptocurrency to a "bank", with no FSCS guarantee is not "risk free" and incurs counterparty risk by definition. 

Did I suggest that? I thought I explicitly stated that you can keep control of your cryptocurrency yourself. Its easier not to, and given the rest of your post you have no business accurately assessing counter party risk anyway, but it is possible to achieve whilst holding your own assets.

Pray tell what this mysterious secret risk free conventional asset beating return is, the suspense is mildly irritating me.

tebbins said:

Clearly owning cryptocurrency incurs cryptocurrency volatility risk, I don't see how it is possible not to. If it requires "nouse", I fail to understand how it fan be "risk-free". How is it possible to make 7-8% pa from cryptocurrenciea without having exposure to the underlying price?

"I don't see how it is possible," "I fail to understand," "How is it possible." About sums it up.

Because you said there was a risk-free rate of return for Bitcoin and have put literally 0 effort into explaining what it is, how it works, and provided no sources to back up your assertions. 

tebbins said:

Clearly owning cryptocurrency incurs cryptocurrency volatility risk. 

Really? Please, if you have no idea how something this basic can be done using financial instruments, you have no place offering advice on a savings and investments forum about 'risk free' investments, which by definition usually involve hedging if its something other than T-Bills. This goes for any commodity by the way, not just cryptocurrencies. Do you think international companies operating across multiple currencies just accept FX risk!?

tebbins said:

You've said "nouse" and "smart enough to figure out how to get it in the first place" - please provide sources for your claims because suggesting there is a mysterious "trick" that you won't disclose but leave for us to figure out is, frankly, suspicious.

Seriously, if you aren't capable of googling 'contango' and knowing the kind of arbitrage opportunity I'm talking about, you have no place dabbling in it. You're not sharp enough and you'll mess it up.

This is the first time you have mentioned this, the burden of proof is on the person who makes the assertion to substantiate it, not on the audience to google it. That kind of behaviour is extremely suspicious and used by scammers. Please also refrain from using that language, being patronising is bad enough without also being wrong.


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The key thing here is just being able to monetise an idea in a strategic way. Lets imagine you think tether is a load of fake money and that its all going to come crashing down. Well, you buy USDC, a rock solid fully reserve backed stablecoin, deposit it in a defi protocol and borrow USDT against it, sell the USDT and keep the cash.* If USDT turns out to be a fake money printer, its price crashes, you can buy back what you borrowed at cents on the dollar and then claim your original USDC back, whilst also pocketing the cash you got from selling the tether originally. Congrats, you've shorted USDT and your only cost of carry is the interest on the USDT you've borrowed (circa 4% per year). Counter party risk? Well, you're using code so there is no 'bank' or evil person to run off with your money and these protocols have had billions locked in them for over a year now and haven't been hacked yet, plus worked flawlessly as BTC crashed by 60% earlier in the year. Hence why I say they are safer than an actual bank - If the FTSE crashed 60% tomorrow you've have multiple defaults and unpaid debts. That can't happen with blockchain.

*Bonus points for using the cash to buy back USDC, deposit it in an interest bearing protocol and using the interest generated to offset your interest paid on the USDT. Also bonus points for using this strategy as insurance for one side if you were trading a pair like BTC/USDT etc.

Thank you for confirming what I said earlier. I have reported your comments about Bitcoin having a risk-free return as spam and will continue to do so as long as you maintain such obviously false and misleading statements in your posts.

User232002

tebbins said:
This is the first time you have mentioned this

Second. Counting is hard, I know. Have you actually googled it yet? At least one other poster did and understood the general principle. Funny that he managed to figure it out despite the fact that I've put 'literally zero effort in to explaining what it is.'

tebbins said:
the burden of proof is on the person who makes the assertion to substantiate it, not on the audience to google it. 

Absolutely not. I owe you nothing; You are not paying me and I am not your financial advisor. If you can't use your own mind and figure this stuff out, you are better served staying in the normie world of sub 1% interest rates. The strategy is risk free, but the execution is most definitely not. Risk free does not equal effort free.

If you want a low effort strategy then give your money to a crypto 'bank' that will execute these strategies on your behalf. You'll get 8% APY on USD stablecoins (so still no exposure to volatility). Sure, they will take a piece of the pie and you'll be taking on counter party risk, but that's the market price for them being able to execute strategies that you can't execute yourself. 

tebbins said:
That kind of behaviour is extremely suspicious and used by scammers. 

Incorrect. A scammer seeks to funnel marks to a particular platform, website or method where the scam can take place. I'm purposely omitting this information to show that I have nothing to gain here. How is this a scam? Where do you think I am profiting from this? What you're really doing is asserting that it must be a scam because you don't believe its possible, but that says more about your dogmatic thinking than my behaviour. Nothing I have posted in this thread or elsewhere on this forum can be remotely construed as being scam like behaviour.

tebbins said:
Please also refrain from using that language, being patronising is bad enough without also being wrong.

I'm not apologising for putting a barrier to entry up here and pointing out how uninformed you are. You asked 'How can you hold cryptocurrencies without incurring cryptocurrency volatility risk?' This question shows a complete lack of understanding of the principles of risk management as well as the futures/options markets. You aren't the kind of person that should be pursuing this. This isn't something unique to the crypto space, people do this all the time; International companies lay off FX volatility, energy companies lay off gas and oil volatility, investors lay off stock volatility. 

tebbins said:

Thank you for confirming what I said earlier. I have reported your comments about Bitcoin having a risk-free return as spam and will continue to do so as long as you maintain such obviously false and misleading statements in your posts.

Laughable. 

User232002

HCIMbtw said:

In reality I just won't be able to give the time to setting up the accounts, researching methods or practicing half the type of trading you mentioned in the first main paragraph.. let alone hanging around discords and crypto forums to much (though I can totally appreciate this type of exchange and engagement will offer some edge). 

Yeah, its not for everyone. I just think its really important to understand that you're not going to find a 100x gem via a YouTube video and if someone is suggesting that they have then its probably a shill.

HCIMbtw said:

Really what I am interested in is just setting up to tuck a portion away in BTC and ETH... and interested in platforms to use (reputable, best cost basis for ad hoc purchases) and strategies for timing buys...  in contrast to index funds/ETFs, which I just set up a monthly direct debit for because there is that little volatility (relative to crypto), I am thinking applying the same logic here probably isn't best and id be better off trying to time what are seemingly weekly crashes (worth noting i'm only really talking about money i'm willing to lose)... 

A BTC/ETH portfolio is what I always advocate to my non crypto friends. Its the lowest effort entry that I believe will outperform indices comfortably over the next decade. In terms of platforms - Coinbase, Binance and FTX are the biggest three exchanges that will not scam you. Try to avoid buying via RobinHood or Revolut etc because, last time I checked, they don't let you take possession of your BTC. Use Coinbase Pro for cheaper fees if using Coinbase. All 3 accept bank transfers, which usually have lower fees than debit card deposits. I have no idea and haven't seen any back testing of investment strategies. I'd suggest DCA over buying dips purely for psychological reasons but I don't know which one would outperform.

HCIMbtw said:

If you've any reccomended youtubers or subreddits i'd be good for checking them out, don't dabble in podcasts though

For Bitcoin - 'What Bitcoin Did' on YouTube; The petrodollar one for monetary history, and the 4 part gradually then suddenly series. For ETH - Raoul Pal - The exponential age, as well as the Raoul vs Lyn Alden on ETH (w/ Laura Shin I believe). For someone that only knows about BTC and ETH and little else but wants to begin to look in to the wider market, CoinBureau on YouTube. He doesn't shill projects, discloses his positions and provides balanced analysis. 

The above is probably the higher end of 'edutainment' content on YouTube, so it'll give you some discussion points and is beginner friendly, but its not actionable information to trade on. Just please don't become one of those people that 'invest' in something because they saw a YouTube video on it.

Hansplace

Always interesting when global stock markets falls and crypto goes up.

Anyone traded initial coin offering before?

tebbins

darren232002 said:

tebbins said:
This is the first time you have mentioned this

Second. Counting is hard, I know. Have you actually googled it yet? At least one other poster did and understood the general principle. Funny that he managed to figure it out despite the fact that I've put 'literally zero effort in to explaining what it is.'

tebbins said:
the burden of proof is on the person who makes the assertion to substantiate it, not on the audience to google it. 

Absolutely not. I owe you nothing; You are not paying me and I am not your financial advisor. If you can't use your own mind and figure this stuff out, you are better served staying in the normie world of sub 1% interest rates. The strategy is risk free, but the execution is most definitely not. Risk free does not equal effort free.

If you want a low effort strategy then give your money to a crypto 'bank' that will execute these strategies on your behalf. You'll get 8% APY on USD stablecoins (so still no exposure to volatility). Sure, they will take a piece of the pie and you'll be taking on counter party risk, but that's the market price for them being able to execute strategies that you can't execute yourself. 

tebbins said:
That kind of behaviour is extremely suspicious and used by scammers. 

Incorrect. A scammer seeks to funnel marks to a particular platform, website or method where the scam can take place. I'm purposely omitting this information to show that I have nothing to gain here. How is this a scam? Where do you think I am profiting from this? What you're really doing is asserting that it must be a scam because you don't believe its possible, but that says more about your dogmatic thinking than my behaviour. Nothing I have posted in this thread or elsewhere on this forum can be remotely construed as being scam like behaviour.

tebbins said:
Please also refrain from using that language, being patronising is bad enough without also being wrong.

I'm not apologising for putting a barrier to entry up here and pointing out how uninformed you are. You asked 'How can you hold cryptocurrencies without incurring cryptocurrency volatility risk?' This question shows a complete lack of understanding of the principles of risk management as well as the futures/options markets. You aren't the kind of person that should be pursuing this. This isn't something unique to the crypto space, people do this all the time; International companies lay off FX volatility, energy companies lay off gas and oil volatility, investors lay off stock volatility. 

tebbins said:

Thank you for confirming what I said earlier. I have reported your comments about Bitcoin having a risk-free return as spam and will continue to do so as long as you maintain such obviously false and misleading statements in your posts.

Laughable. 

What is there to figure out, literally, what am i supposed to figure out?
How am i supposed to figure this out?
What do i do?

When genuine posters on the forum answer questions to people who are unfamiliar with a topic, we don't berate their ignorance with arrogance, rudeness and sarcasm. You have stated it is possible to generate a risk free return of 7-8% from cryptocurrencies. I am asking you to explain how that is possible given all the risks we know about "investing" in Crypto.

For example when someone asks about investing their SIPP in VLS100 - that is something I know, understand and can talk about. I know enough about Crypto to know that I do not understand it well enough to "invest" in it. It is extremely volatile, has no intrinsic value, pays no interest or dividends, environmentally awful, used by criminals, and the crypto "industry" abounds with scams.

So i an asking you to explain in lay terms, for the benefit of the forum (or maybe just to pwn me once and for all which you seem to love believing you're doing) what does one do, specifically, step-by-step, to obtain a 7-8% risk free return from Crypto with no counterparty risk or exposure to Crypto volatility?

Forgive my scepticism but I believe in this thing called "if it sounds too good to be true...".

User232002

tebbins said:

So i an asking you to explain in lay terms, for the benefit of the forum (or maybe just to pwn me once and for all which you seem to love believing you're doing) what does one do, specifically, step-by-step, to obtain a 7-8% risk free return from Crypto with no counterparty risk or exposure to Crypto volatility?

If you're a layman, just put USDC somewhere you trust and take the interest on it. Spread it between Binance, BlockFi and Celsius. Returns more than compensate for the counter party risk. Let them do the heavy lifting for you. This isn't for laymen.

tebbins said:

It is extremely volatile

 Meh, not as much as people think. Volatility isn't a negative when it has the best risk adjusted returns of any asset out there.

tebbins said:

has no intrinsic value

Incorrect. Hard money.

tebbins said:

pays no interest or dividends

It does if you use defi or staking

tebbins said:

environmentally awful

The environmental argument is just a load of bad logic from idiots that can't do basic analysis. Remember, in 2017 we were told that by 2021 the BTC network would be consuming the entire worlds power supply. Elon and his bitcoin mining council will come out in a month or two and announce that since > 50% of BTC is now mined using renewables they will accept it again. El Salvador's volcano mining gonna be hard to argue against. Can't wait. 

tebbins said:

used by criminals

Public blockchains tend not to be a good place of business for criminals. Greater percentage of criminal activity occurs in cash than it does in crypto.

tebbins said:

the crypto "industry" abounds with scams.

Yep. Scams like where someone steals $600M and then.... gives it all back. I've not actually lost money yet due to a scam. Stay in the larger projects and you're generally fine. Its when you go chasing 15000% yields that you get rekt.

Gary1984

tebbins said:

So i an asking you to explain in lay terms, for the benefit of the forum (or maybe just to pwn me once and for all which you seem to love believing you're doing) what does one do, specifically, step-by-step, to obtain a 7-8% risk free return from Crypto with no counterparty risk or exposure to Crypto volatility?

"If you're a layman, just put USDC somewhere you trust and take the interest on it. Spread it between Binance, BlockFi and Celsius. Returns more than compensate for the counter party risk. Let them do the heavy lifting for you. This isn't for laymen."

So you admit it's not risk free. Just because you think the interest is enough to justify the risk of Binance or whoever going bust or running off with your tokens does not make it risk free but closer to a corporate bond in nature.

There's also the point that you're holding USDC, not actual dollars. Nobody is compelled to give you a real dollar for your USDC so you could be left holding a lot of useless tokens. I'd say this is probably a bigger risk than the counterparty risk.

tebbins

darren232002 said:

tebbins said:

So i an asking you to explain in lay terms, for the benefit of the forum (or maybe just to pwn me once and for all which you seem to love believing you're doing) what does one do, specifically, step-by-step, to obtain a 7-8% risk free return from Crypto with no counterparty risk or exposure to Crypto volatility?

If you're a layman, just put USDC somewhere you trust and take the interest on it. Spread it between Binance, BlockFi and Celsius. Returns more than compensate for the counter party risk. Let them do the heavy lifting for you. This isn't for laymen.

tebbins said:

It is extremely volatile

 Meh, not as much as people think. Volatility isn't a negative when it has the best risk adjusted returns of any asset out there.

tebbins said:

has no intrinsic value

Incorrect. Hard money.

tebbins said:

pays no interest or dividends

It does if you use defi or staking

tebbins said:

environmentally awful

The environmental argument is just a load of bad logic from idiots that can't do basic analysis. Remember, in 2017 we were told that by 2021 the BTC network would be consuming the entire worlds power supply. Elon and his bitcoin mining council will come out in a month or two and announce that since > 50% of BTC is now mined using renewables they will accept it again. El Salvador's volcano mining gonna be hard to argue against. Can't wait. 

tebbins said:

used by criminals oooooh

Public blockchains tend not to be a good place of business for criminals. Greater percentage of criminal activity occurs in cash than it does in crypto.

tebbins said:

the crypto "industry" abounds with scams.

Yep. Scams like where someone steals $600M and then.... gives it all back. I've not actually lost money yet due to a scam. Stay in the larger projects and you're generally fine. Its when you go chasing 15000% yields that you get rekt.

USDC - is what?

"Somewhere you trust" ... Such as where and how am I supposed to figure out how, also what is this somewhere and how does it generate returns free of volatility and counter-party risk? How do I figure out how trustworthy "somewhere" is?
Are Binance, Blockfi and Celsius FSCS backed? I don't know or trust any of them.
"Returns (of 7-8% you say) more than compensate for the counter party risk" so there is counter party risk of a 100% loss, the opposite of what you said earlier.
What is the "heavy lifting", specifically what is being lifted and how does that generate profits to return to deposit holders. Why is not being a lay person a requirement to access these returns?
Bitcoin is a purely speculative, very high-risk, unregulated, intrinsically worthless asset. If a company fails and is liquidated its assets can be sold to pay off creditors and shareholders. Bitcoin has nothing behind it, saying it "hard money" is a meaningless phrase you could say about anything - such as flint and obsidian.
Bitcoin does pay interest or dividends, other assets purchased with Bitcoin may.
"Defi" and "staking" mean what?

"Stay in the larger projects (what projects) and you're generally fine (from being scammed)".

User232002

Gary1984 said:

So you admit it's not risk free. Just because you think the interest is enough to justify the risk of Binance or whoever going bust or running off with your tokens does not make it risk free but closer to a corporate bond in nature.

tebbins said:

"Returns (of 7-8% you say) more than compensate for the counter party risk" so there is counter party risk of a 100% loss, the opposite of what you said earlier.

Comprehension is not your forte guys.

This isn't a revolutionary tactic employed by giga-brains, its a trivial strategy that goes on all the time in a wide variety of markets. My point was that it is blindingly obvious to me that you don't have the knowledge and intellect to understand how you can use the options & futures markets to capture spread without exposure to the underlying asset. Seriously, that's all it is - That's the explanation! One other poster compared it to matched betting, which is a decent analogy.

If you can not follow that you have close to zero chance of actually executing it, hence why I said - "The strategy is risk free, the execution is not." In the absence of this ability, you are best served by giving your money to someone else and letting them do the execution ("heavy lifting") for you. Yes, this incurs counter party risk and is therefore not risk free - but lets not pretend this is what I was referring to all along. It isn't.

tebbins said:
Why is not being a lay person a requirement to access these returns?

Broadly equivalent to asking why someone who got a bunch of C's in their GCSE's can't be a doctor. 

Laymen have the access but not the skill, knowledge or the time. There's a reason that managed funds exist.

tebbins said:

Bitcoin is a purely speculative, very high-risk, unregulated, intrinsically worthless asset. If a company fails and is liquidated its assets can be sold to pay off creditors and shareholders. Bitcoin has nothing behind it, saying it "hard money" is a meaningless phrase you could say about anything - such as flint and obsidian. Bitcoin does pay interest or dividends, other assets purchased with Bitcoin may. "Defi" and "staking" mean what? "Stay in the larger projects (what projects) and you're generally fine (from being scammed)".

Meh, all debunked elsewhere if you care to look. Of all the arguments against Bitcoin, 'no intrinsic value,' is the most intellectually dishonest. Its an arbitrary definition built upon flawed axioms that falls apart at the slightest bit of analysis.

Does water have intrinsic value? Most say yes, but its basically valueless.
Do diamonds have intrinsic value? We don't price it based on its industrial use, we price it based on beauty. I don't particularly think that is 'intrinsic value.' Oh, but people want diamonds, so there is demand. Ah, but people clearly demand Bitcoin too. That doesn't count, its speculative.
Does Tesco have intrinsic value? Yes, because 'real world goods and services.' Do EA Sports, Google or Facebook have value even though their products are, more or less, purely digital? Some hand waving goes on about providing 'real world jobs.' But jobs in the crypto industry don't seem to count for some reason.
Then the real kicker is when we ask why Gold has intrinsic value over and above its use case - its monetary premium. All the arguments you give here all apply to Bitcoin, except Bitcoin is better in almost every regard.

So we build up this picture whereby demand can indicate value, where digital things can have value, providing real world economic value has value and where being an unchangeable lump of metal has value... But somehow Bitcoin has 'no intrinsic value.'

Linton

darren232002 said:

Gary1984 said:

So you admit it's not risk free. Just because you think the interest is enough to justify the risk of Binance or whoever going bust or running off with your tokens does not make it risk free but closer to a corporate bond in nature.

tebbins said:

"Returns (of 7-8% you say) more than compensate for the counter party risk" so there is counter party risk of a 100% loss, the opposite of what you said earlier.

Comprehension is not your forte guys.

This isn't a revolutionary tactic employed by giga-brains, its a trivial strategy that goes on all the time in a wide variety of markets. My point was that it is blindingly obvious to me that you don't have the knowledge and intellect to understand how you can use the options & futures markets to capture spread without exposure to the underlying asset. Seriously, that's all it is - That's the explanation! One other poster compared it to matched betting, which is a decent analogy.

If you can not follow that you have close to zero chance of actually executing it, hence why I said - "The strategy is risk free, the execution is not." In the absence of this ability, you are best served by giving your money to someone else and letting them do the execution ("heavy lifting") for you. Yes, this incurs counter party risk and is therefore not risk free - but lets not pretend this is what I was referring to all along. It isn't.

tebbins said:
Why is not being a lay person a requirement to access these returns?

Broadly equivalent to asking why someone who got a bunch of C's in their GCSE's can't be a doctor. 

Laymen have the access but not the skill, knowledge or the time. There's a reason that managed funds exist.

tebbins said:

Bitcoin is a purely speculative, very high-risk, unregulated, intrinsically worthless asset. If a company fails and is liquidated its assets can be sold to pay off creditors and shareholders. Bitcoin has nothing behind it, saying it "hard money" is a meaningless phrase you could say about anything - such as flint and obsidian. Bitcoin does pay interest or dividends, other assets purchased with Bitcoin may. "Defi" and "staking" mean what? "Stay in the larger projects (what projects) and you're generally fine (from being scammed)".

Meh, all debunked elsewhere if you care to look. Of all the arguments against Bitcoin, 'no intrinsic value,' is the most intellectually dishonest. Its an arbitrary definition built upon flawed axioms that falls apart at the slightest bit of analysis.

Does water have intrinsic value? Most say yes, but its basically valueless.
Do diamonds have intrinsic value? We don't price it based on its industrial use, we price it based on beauty. I don't particularly think that is 'intrinsic value.' Oh, but people want diamonds, so there is demand. Ah, but people clearly demand Bitcoin too. That doesn't count, its speculative.
Does Tesco have intrinsic value? Yes, because 'real world goods and services.' Do EA Sports, Google or Facebook have value even though their products are, more or less, purely digital? Some hand waving goes on about providing 'real world jobs.' But jobs in the crypto industry don't seem to count for some reason.
Then the real kicker is when we ask why Gold has intrinsic value over and above its use case - its monetary premium. All the arguments you give here all apply to Bitcoin, except Bitcoin is better in almost every regard.

So we build up this picture whereby demand can indicate value, where digital things can have value, providing real world economic value has value and where being an unchangeable lump of metal has value... But somehow Bitcoin has 'no intrinsic value.'

EA Sports, Google amd Facebook have values without any need for hand waving.  They have ongoing income from their customer base mainly from subscriptons and the sale of advertising space.  Future ongoing income has a value now that an someone with financial skills could calculate.  The companies also own physical assets such as property or cash with an intrinsic value and virtual assets (eg rights to intellectual property) that have a value based on their ability to generate income.  You as a shareholder own a defined % of the company and therefore your shares have an intrinsic value.  Calculation of these factors is known as "fundamental analysis".

The intrinsic value can be calculated and compared with the market price.  This will give you a basis on which to judge whether the shares are worth buying or not.  If shares cost more than the instrinsic value it may be that they are over-priced or that the price includes hopes and expectations of the future with which you may or may not agree. 

Neither gold nor bitcoin are amenable to fundamenrtal analysis.  There is no "right" value against which the market price can be compared.  They could settle at any price.  Which is why, in my view, neither are suitable for serious investment except possibly  in relatively small %s for randomised diversification.  At least gold has millennia of history which may give you some confidence that the value wont drop to zero.