Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

lozzy1965

Type_45 said:

Malthusian said:

Type_45 said:

I am interested in this. But we need to get some things agreed.

The GBP and USD are being intentionally crushed. But what they are reolaced with "CBDCs", ultimately, may also be called GBP/USD.

If you're going to try to change the proposed bet from "£1,000 if all digital money disappears" to "£1,000 if all digital money is converted to a different electronic format" then I've just lost interest.

A debt jubilee is entirely possible. Credit cards, mortgages etc. And that would be great news for millions of people. A large number of people owe as much money as they have in equity/savings/investments, so it would suit many people and families.

It would hollow out the middle classes, however.

In the short term the middle classes would be the biggest beneficiaries, as they are the most leveraged thanks to their mortgages.

The impoverished would benefit less than the middle classes by two orders of magnitude, as they would only "gain" a few hundred or thousand quid in forgiven unsecured and short-term debt.

Moreover, the really hard-up can have their own personal debt jubilee any time they like by applying for a Debt Relief Order, so an enforced mass jubilee doesn't give them anything they don't already have.

In the long run of course everyone loses from the abolition of credit, but you already knew that.

My definition of middle class is perhaps different from other people's. I meant people with high net worths. People with high net worths will obviously be screwed over by such a scenario.

People with mortgages and savings (whatever class they are considered to be) won't mind so much as their debts and equity/savings mostly cancel each other out. 

Wealthy people will possibly be OK as they likely own hard assets such as land, real estate, companies, precious metals etc. 

And the poorest people will probably be better off, as you say, by a few grand as their debts will disappear.

Without wishing to intimate that I agree with any of your premises in any way whatsoever, I'm not entirely sure that high net worth equates to middle classes in most peoples' minds, but I guess it depends on ones definition of high and low.  I would imagine that for most people who fall into this category, the majority of their wealth would be in property, so I'm not really sure what your point is?  You seem to be saying they will be screwed, but then pointing out that they will possibly be ok!

Type_45

lozzy1965 said:

Type_45 said:

Malthusian said:

Type_45 said:

I am interested in this. But we need to get some things agreed.

The GBP and USD are being intentionally crushed. But what they are reolaced with "CBDCs", ultimately, may also be called GBP/USD.

If you're going to try to change the proposed bet from "£1,000 if all digital money disappears" to "£1,000 if all digital money is converted to a different electronic format" then I've just lost interest.

A debt jubilee is entirely possible. Credit cards, mortgages etc. And that would be great news for millions of people. A large number of people owe as much money as they have in equity/savings/investments, so it would suit many people and families.

It would hollow out the middle classes, however.

In the short term the middle classes would be the biggest beneficiaries, as they are the most leveraged thanks to their mortgages.

The impoverished would benefit less than the middle classes by two orders of magnitude, as they would only "gain" a few hundred or thousand quid in forgiven unsecured and short-term debt.

Moreover, the really hard-up can have their own personal debt jubilee any time they like by applying for a Debt Relief Order, so an enforced mass jubilee doesn't give them anything they don't already have.

In the long run of course everyone loses from the abolition of credit, but you already knew that.

My definition of middle class is perhaps different from other people's. I meant people with high net worths. People with high net worths will obviously be screwed over by such a scenario.

People with mortgages and savings (whatever class they are considered to be) won't mind so much as their debts and equity/savings mostly cancel each other out. 

Wealthy people will possibly be OK as they likely own hard assets such as land, real estate, companies, precious metals etc. 

And the poorest people will probably be better off, as you say, by a few grand as their debts will disappear.

Without wishing to intimate that I agree with any of your premises in any way whatsoever, I'm not entirely sure that high net worth equates to middle classes in most peoples' minds, but I guess it depends on ones definition of high and low.  I would imagine that for most people who fall into this category, the majority of their wealth would be in property, so I'm not really sure what your point is?  You seem to be saying they will be screwed, but then pointing out that they will possibly be ok!

The scenario here is quite simple: the erasing of digital assets (and debts). 

I'm not saying I think this happen. I am saying, however, that it's what some people think and I agree that it's a possibility.

We don't know what will happen when the new system (and currencies) replace the old. We don't know what it will look like, who will benefit, and who will be worse off.

Whatever your views, you can't seriously think we'll keep going the way we are with ballooning sovereign debts and the printing of money. It's coming to a head and it will be reset. 

Type_45

https://www.techspot.com/news/94856-economist-china-must-seize-tsmc-if-us-tightens.html 

Type_45

adindas said:

The mini debate whether there will be recession this year or next year ?

I fully agree that when the oil price surge to US$175, that is what might trigger recession. Oil/Gas price will effect almost everything in everyday life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr63YMYcmR0

Chances of recession: ETF investors prepare

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPrfxTwzI9w

These are extremely lightweight "analysts", mostly.  But some key points were covered (eg, Taiwan).

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

The mini debate whether there will be recession this year or next year ?

I fully agree that when the oil price surge to US$175, that is what might trigger recession. Oil/Gas price will effect almost everything in everyday life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr63YMYcmR0

Chances of recession: ETF investors prepare

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPrfxTwzI9w

These are extremely lightweight "analysts", mostly.  But some key points were covered (eg, Taiwan).

It is good to expand your horizon, watching varieties of debates. However the lightweight they are you could still watching their DDs and reasoning.

Have you read article about Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) led by Nobel Prize-winning economists and renowned Wall Street traders Scholes and Merton that blew up in 1998, forcing the U.S. government to intervene to prevent financial markets from collapsing. They are Nobel Laureates in economics.

There is no certainty in the stockmarkets. For that reason it is good to learn from varieties of authoritative sources and watch varieties of debate. Using your common sense, the most powerful tool in decision making you make your own decision. It might not be right all the time but you are not making a random decision.

It seems you probably watch too many prophets thus reflected in your writing which are much more about prophecy rather than analysis in the stock market.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

The mini debate whether there will be recession this year or next year ?

I fully agree that when the oil price surge to US$175, that is what might trigger recession. Oil/Gas price will effect almost everything in everyday life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr63YMYcmR0

Chances of recession: ETF investors prepare

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPrfxTwzI9w

These are extremely lightweight "analysts", mostly.  But some key points were covered (eg, Taiwan).

It is good to expand your horizon, watching varieties of debates.

Have you read article about Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) led by Nobel Prize-winning economists and renowned Wall Street traders Scholes and Merton that blew up in 1998, forcing the U.S. government to intervene to prevent financial markets from collapsing. They are Nobel Laureates in economics.

There is no certainty in the stocks. For that reason it is good to learn from varieties of authoritative sources and watch varieties of debate. Using your common sense, the most powerful tool in decision making you make your own decision. It might be right all the time but you are not making a random decision.

What I have seen you probably watch too many prophets thus you are writing much more about prophecy rather than analysis in the stock market.

I listen to some serious analysts who are data-driven.

One example of that is Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan.  He has access to data which you nor I have access to.  And neither do any of CNBC's fake prophets such as Jim Cramer, who is the very epitome of a reverse indicator.

Zola.

JP Morgan are not a reputable company. Probably better off doing the opposite of what Jamie Dimon says. 

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

The mini debate whether there will be recession this year or next year ?

I fully agree that when the oil price surge to US$175, that is what might trigger recession. Oil/Gas price will effect almost everything in everyday life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr63YMYcmR0

Chances of recession: ETF investors prepare

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPrfxTwzI9w

These are extremely lightweight "analysts", mostly.  But some key points were covered (eg, Taiwan).

It is good to expand your horizon, watching varieties of debates.

Have you read article about Long-Term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) led by Nobel Prize-winning economists and renowned Wall Street traders Scholes and Merton that blew up in 1998, forcing the U.S. government to intervene to prevent financial markets from collapsing. They are Nobel Laureates in economics.

There is no certainty in the stocks. For that reason it is good to learn from varieties of authoritative sources and watch varieties of debate. Using your common sense, the most powerful tool in decision making you make your own decision. It might be right all the time but you are not making a random decision.

What I have seen you probably watch too many prophets thus you are writing much more about prophecy rather than analysis in the stock market.

I listen to some serious analysts who are data-driven.

One example of that is Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan.  He has access to data which you nor I have access to.  And neither do any of CNBC's fake prophets such as Jim Cramer, who is the very epitome of a reverse indicator.

I listen to a lot of people including Jamie Diamond. There are a lot of multi billionaires hedge funds out there if you compare the money they are making, Jamie Diamond is nothing.

Do you know these name ?

Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Ray Dalio, Carl Icahn, Ron Baron, Jim Simons, George Soros, Steve Cohen, Daniel Loeb, Paul Tudor Jones, Bruce Kovner, Stanley Druckenmiller, Bill Ackman

A few of them have appeared on CNBC Television, Bloomberg Markets and Finance.

Prism

Type_45 said:

I listen to some serious analysts who are data-driven.

One example of that is Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan.  He has access to data which you nor I have access to.  And neither do any of CNBC's fake prophets such as Jim Cramer, who is the very epitome of a reverse indicator.

JP Morgan's chief economist disagrees with what Jamie Dimon (who is not an economist) says. Neither of them, nor anyone else really knows what will happen.

Type_45

Zola. said:

JP Morgan are not a reputable company. Probably better off doing the opposite of what Jamie Dimon says. 

Yeah, he's the wrong sort of expert.  He says things we don't agree with.