Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Malthusian

Type_45 said:

SPY, FTSE... Any of them will suffice. And a CCP invasion of Taiwan would instantly make it happen, I'd have thought.

China invading Taiwan would not cause the global stockmarket or any other major developed country stockmarket to drop 80%.

China invading the USA would not cause the global stockmarket to drop by 80%. World War 2 caused the S&P 500 to drop by about 60% (from 1937 to the bottom in 1941).

(And note that at that time, the S&P 500 actually had dropped by over 80% in recent memory, during the Great Depression.)

War, by the way, doesn't necessarily mean China will go into Taiwan shooting.  

They may simply isolate it.  Maybe starve it.  Who knows...

So war doesn't necessarily mean war? Okey dokey then.

Taiwan is an island, it's not a Berlin surrounded by Chinese territory. China cannot physically blockade it without invading Japanese waters and firing on Western ships and aircraft, which means WW3.

In any case, it's moot because China declaring not-war on Taiwan wouldn't cause stockmarkets to drop by 80% either.

Type_45

Malthusian said:

Type_45 said:

SPY, FTSE... Any of them will suffice. And a CCP invasion of Taiwan would instantly make it happen, I'd have thought.

China invading Taiwan would not cause the global stockmarket or any other major developed country stockmarket to drop 80%.

China invading the USA would not cause the global stockmarket to drop by 80%. World War 2 caused the S&P 500 to drop by about 60% (from 1937 to the bottom in 1941).

(And note that at that time, the S&P 500 actually had dropped by over 80% in recent memory, during the Great Depression.)

War, by the way, doesn't necessarily mean China will go into Taiwan shooting.  

They may simply isolate it.  Maybe starve it.  Who knows...

So war doesn't necessarily mean war? Okey dokey then.

Taiwan is an island, it's not a Berlin surrounded by Chinese territory. China cannot physically blockade it without invading Japanese waters and firing on Western ships and aircraft, which means WW3.

In any case, it's moot because China declaring not-war on Taiwan wouldn't cause stockmarkets to drop by 80% either.

Taiwan makes 90% of the world's advanced micro chips.  You think China seizing this production wouldn't move markets?  The CCP would have the world by the short and curlies.

China does not need to enter Japanese waters to encircle Taiwan.  And even if it did, what's Japan gonna do...

But yes, you are correct that a Chinese move on Taiwan could lead to a kinetic war with the USA.  And I would be very concerned about this from an American point of view.  America has never lost a war.  Vietnam wasn't a military defeat, it was a political one.  The USA is a power in decline.  And if one (as I did) thought that pulling out of Afghanistan signalled it's fall from power, an actual military defeat in the East China Sea to the CCP would be something I don't think the USA could come back from.  The torch would be well and truly passed to China.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

sevenhills said:

masonic said:

Is that the same Elon Musk that felt super good about Dogecoin when it was trading at around $0.50? (on the topic of things falling 80%)

Tesla shares are 20% down in the last six months, so he is right to be cautious 

So has the S&P.  Nasdaq 30%.

S&P is only down 6% in the 6 months to 3rd June, from its peak it is down 14% and peak to trough it was almost but not quite 20%. Comparative figures for NASDAQ are 20%/25%/30%.

This does raise the question, which index will you use as a benchmark for the 80% drop? It would make sense to use a global index like FTSE World, since it will be global (right?), or are you going to focus on the world's largest economy for this?

SPY, FTSE... Any of them will suffice. And a CCP invasion of Taiwan would instantly make it happen, I'd have thought.

If China Invades Taiwan you have much more else to worry than worrying about the stock-market.

I've been saying this for weeks.

However, the stock market isn't my concern as I don't hold equities (other than in gold miners). 

It's a matter of time before China makes a move on Taiwan. China are already getting themselves on a war footing.

Beside a hedge against inflation, in general Gold / Silver have an inverse relationship with US$, if the US dollar keep strengthening the Gold, Silver will drop and vice versa.

Sofar in the recent week we have seen the US dollar keep strengthening that is one reason the Gold/Silver drop.

Well, the USD is being intentionally crushed, so it looks like gold and silver will have their day.

Prism

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

sevenhills said:

masonic said:

Is that the same Elon Musk that felt super good about Dogecoin when it was trading at around $0.50? (on the topic of things falling 80%)

Tesla shares are 20% down in the last six months, so he is right to be cautious 

So has the S&P.  Nasdaq 30%.

S&P is only down 6% in the 6 months to 3rd June, from its peak it is down 14% and peak to trough it was almost but not quite 20%. Comparative figures for NASDAQ are 20%/25%/30%.

This does raise the question, which index will you use as a benchmark for the 80% drop? It would make sense to use a global index like FTSE World, since it will be global (right?), or are you going to focus on the world's largest economy for this?

SPY, FTSE... Any of them will suffice. And a CCP invasion of Taiwan would instantly make it happen, I'd have thought.

If China Invades Taiwan you have much more else to worry than worrying about the stock-market.

I've been saying this for weeks.

However, the stock market isn't my concern as I don't hold equities (other than in gold miners). 

It's a matter of time before China makes a move on Taiwan. China are already getting themselves on a war footing.

Beside a hedge against inflation, in general Gold / Silver have an inverse relationship with US$, if the US dollar keep strengthening the Gold, Silver will drop and vice versa.

Sofar in the recent week we have seen the US dollar keep strengthening that is one reason the Gold/Silver drop.

Well, the USD is being intentionally crushed, so it looks like gold and silver will have their day.

The USD is pretty flat. GBP is stronger which likely means the gold price drops from our perspective. SGLN seems pretty flat today.

Malthusian

Type_45 said:

And don't forget this:  many in Taiwan consider themselves Chinese.  This could look more like a civil war than an occupation. But, of course, western media  won't report it as such.

Yeah, because that idea's working so well for Russia at the moment.

Turns out if you invade a population which has both its own cultural identity and a shared identity with yours, and start shooting and torturing them, many of them will stop thinking of the people shooting them as "us" and start thinking of you as "them".

Malthusian

Type_45 said:

Taiwan makes 90% of the world's advanced micro chips.  You think China seizing this production wouldn't move markets?

Yes. But not by 80% downwards. Reverse ferret noted.

The CCP would have the world by the short and curlies.

If by that you mean "it could make computers more expensive until other countries ramped up their microchip production to take advantage".

GazzaBloom

Malthusian said:

Type_45 said:

Taiwan makes 90% of the world's advanced micro chips.  You think China seizing this production wouldn't move markets?

Yes. But not by 80% downwards. Reverse ferret noted.

The CCP would have the world by the short and curlies.

If by that you mean "it could make computers more expensive until other countries ramped up their microchip production to take advantage".

The Jeremy Grantham fan club won't accept anything but the end of western capitalism as we know it, a mere cost increase of electronics won't cut it.

Type_45

Malthusian said:

Type_45 said:

And don't forget this:  many in Taiwan consider themselves Chinese.  This could look more like a civil war than an occupation. But, of course, western media  won't report it as such.

Yeah, because that idea's working so well for Russia at the moment.

Turns out if you invade a population which has both its own cultural identity and a shared identity with yours, and start shooting and torturing them, many of them will stop thinking of the people shooting them as "us" and start thinking of you as "them".

There are 20 million people in Taiwan. It's a tiny province in Chinese terms. The CCP could take 10 million of them to mainland China and replace them with 10 million loyal Chinese. The CCP lets nothing get in its way. 

Malthusian

Type_45 said:

There are 20 million people in Taiwan. It's a tiny province in Chinese terms. The CCP could take 10 million of them to mainland China and replace them with 10 million loyal Chinese.

Sure they could. Just so we're clear, are you saying that the Taiwanese wouldn't care about the forced disappearance of one in every two of their neighbours, or that they wouldn't notice?

If I was the all-powerful CCP I would relocate the 10 million loyal Taiwanese to the mainland and get them to take all the semiconductor machinery with them, while leaving the other 10 million to rot. It's easier to move a bunch of factory equipment than 10 million recalcitrant humans.

Type_45

Malthusian said:

Type_45 said:

There are 20 million people in Taiwan. It's a tiny province in Chinese terms. The CCP could take 10 million of them to mainland China and replace them with 10 million loyal Chinese.

Sure they could. Just so we're clear, are you saying that the Taiwanese wouldn't care about the forced disappearance of one in every two of their neighbours, or that they wouldn't notice?

If I was the all-powerful CCP I would relocate the 10 million loyal Taiwanese to the mainland and get them to take all the semiconductor machinery with them, while leaving the other 10 million to rot. It's easier to move a bunch of factory equipment than 10 million recalcitrant humans.

It wouldn't matter what the Taiwanese care about.  There are 20 million people in Shanghai, which is the same population size as Taiwan.  In the last few months the CCP has imprisoned the residents of Shanghai, starved them in their flats, and killed their pets.

China consider Taiwan a rogue province of China.  They will take it back at some point.

For what it's worth, Taiwan's ruling party lays claim to China (and Mongolia).