Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

The markets currently puking at the prospect of the ECB raising rates must be a shock to the "it's priced in" brigade.

The "puking" must be happening in a parallel universe. No discernible impact on my investements, including my Vanguard Europe ETF.

FTSE 100 and VWRP down over 1%.

VWRP suddenly dropped 2% at one point before bouncing back.

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

The markets currently puking at the prospect of the ECB raising rates must be a shock to the "it's priced in" brigade.

The "puking" must be happening in a parallel universe. No discernible impact on my investements, including my Vanguard Europe ETF.

FTSE 100 and VWRP down over 1%.

VWRP suddenly dropped 2% at one point before bouncing back.

Seeing a bit of a drop and bounce back now as of about 2:30, but seems a bit late as a response to this news. Nothing out of the ordinary compared with the last few days. I think we are just staring at noise and trying to ascribe meaning to it.

Edit: It looks like the ECB announcement is of a new plan to raise rates, rather than anything previously disclosed and priced into markets. Will still be down at -0.25%. A September rise to 0% is now expected.

lozzy1965

@Type_45 As this is your thread I think you need to change the title to: Economic Chatter, or more accurately:  Economic Gloom Chatter if you're going to consistently continue to post any confirmation bias that agrees with your predictions, even when it is just normal every day market noise.

masonic

The thread title certainly belies the current sentiment of contributions. It dates back to an idealistic time when Type45 hadn't fully embraced the inevitable collapse of the entire financial system. The other thread that got deleted by the forum team was more aptly named. It seems like a refresh is in order.

booneruk

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

I listen to some serious analysts who are data-driven.

One example of that is Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan.  He has access to data which you nor I have access to.  And neither do any of CNBC's fake prophets such as Jim Cramer, who is the very epitome of a reverse indicator.

JP Morgan's chief economist disagrees with what Jamie Dimon (who is not an economist) says. Neither of them, nor anyone else really knows what will happen.

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.”

Agreed, they are all guessing. So why do you listen to Jamie Dimon since he is just guessing too?

I'm guessing here now - confirmation bias?

grumiofoundation

lozzy1965 said:

@Type_45 As this is your thread I think you need to change the title to: Economic Chatter, or more accurately:  Economic Gloom Chatter if you're going to consistently continue to post any confirmation bias that agrees with your predictions, even when it is just normal every day market noise.

It's simple

Post every time the market drops >1%

Ignore any days it doesn't drop

<80 posts later - market has dropped 80%

Type_45

A red day for equities investors.  Losses can be re-couped in the melt up, but make sure you get out in good time.

adindas

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-sapped-inflation-worries-amid-235306620.html

This is what cause the stock mark to tank today, selling accelerated in the last hour of trading.

The impact of ECB

“If the ECB are even considering an outsized rate hike, I think that sort of says quite a lot about how concerned central banks are and should be about levels of inflation,” Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index. “Central banks are showing a willingness to act aggressively to get inflation back under control, and that is going to make the growth environment much more challenging.”

It might be also in anticipation of the US CPI release tomorrow. If it is higher than 8.3% (or worse 6.5%) the stock market will further tank again tomorrow.

As of 4 p.m. New York time,

    The S&P 500 fell 2.4%  the biggest one-day drop in three weeks.
    The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%
    The MSCI World index fell 2.1%

Apple Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. down more than 3.0%.

Also, normally Friday is not a good day for the stock marker as the traders especially with leverage tend to close their position to avoid weekend fees.

Type_45

adindas said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-sapped-inflation-worries-amid-235306620.html

This is what cause the stock mark to tank today, selling accelerated in the last hour of trading.

The impact of ECB

“If the ECB are even considering an outsized rate hike, I think that sort of says quite a lot about how concerned central banks are and should be about levels of inflation,” Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index. “Central banks are showing a willingness to act aggressively to get inflation back under control, and that is going to make the growth environment much more challenging.”

It might be also in anticipation of the US CPI release tomorrow. If it is higher than 8.3% (or worse 6.5%) the stock market will further tank again tomorrow.

As of 4 p.m. New York time,

    The S&P 500 fell 2.4%  the biggest one-day drop in three weeks.
    The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%
    The MSCI World index fell 2.1%

Apple Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. down more than 3.0%.

Also, normally Friday is not a good day for the stock marker as the traders especially with leverage tend to dump their stock to avoid weekend fees.

This is all a warm up act. The main event hasn't even entered the building yet.

Stay safe out there, everyone.

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-sapped-inflation-worries-amid-235306620.html

This is what cause the stock mark to tank today, selling accelerated in the last hour of trading.

The impact of ECB

“If the ECB are even considering an outsized rate hike, I think that sort of says quite a lot about how concerned central banks are and should be about levels of inflation,” Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index. “Central banks are showing a willingness to act aggressively to get inflation back under control, and that is going to make the growth environment much more challenging.”

It might be also in anticipation of the US CPI release tomorrow. If it is higher than 8.3% (or worse 6.5%) the stock market will further tank again tomorrow.

As of 4 p.m. New York time,

    The S&P 500 fell 2.4%  the biggest one-day drop in three weeks.
    The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.7%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%
    The MSCI World index fell 2.1%

Apple Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. down more than 3.0%.

Also, normally Friday is not a good day for the stock marker as the traders especially with leverage tend to dump their stock to avoid weekend fees.

This is all a warm up act. The main event hasn't even entered the building yet.

Stay safe out there, everyone.

Not for me. Instead of following your suggestion to stay safe, I keep pounding the high quality stocks such as Microsoft, META, Apple, AMD, Micron, Goldman Sachs on area around the dip in a small chunk. You will not lose money with these type of stocks. Also the valuation these stocks are already very attractive.

Also because I am also doing swing trading. When they are on the top of the channel (e.g resistance level) I sell it, around the dip I buy it back. I have been making money during this bear market in this way. not much as it is a very small position. The contrarian make money when there is a blood on the street.