Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

masonic

Type_45 said:

Are puts possible on iWeb?  Could have done with that on my disastrous gold miner stock.

IWeb is a simple investment platform. You'd need a platform with options trading capabilities to do this. IG would be one that immediately springs to mind.

Type_45

bd10 said:

I'll bet on policy mistake. Fed's hand is forced, inflation is getting political and not "just" an economic issue. Baseline assumption: too aggressive tightening, accepting recession in the process. Wouldn't be surprised if Fed would accept that to reign inflation in a bit. Forward Libors are lower from summer next year. Would not suggest that this inversion will lead to a recession, but market's just expecting some easing. And this stop-start I fear will catch many out. Add to that, the Fed put is nowhere close to current levels. Not a good time to hold long duration assets. So yes, it will be bumpy for quite some time. Hope to be wrong but I think we're in for a real treat: high volatility, equity prices drifting lower in general. Few up-days mistaken for being a turn-around, etc. Some markets perhaps but better (=less negative) than others, bonds a no-go and cash depreciating at maybe 5-7% pa, so where to hide?

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.


Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

Type_45

sevenhills said:

Type_45 said:

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

If QT is an issue, they might tread very slowly or cancel it altogether?

Perhaps. Or... They see that it's needed and that the markets taking a massive hit is simply what needs to happen. 

adindas

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

bd10

Type_45 said:

bd10 said:

I'll bet on policy mistake. Fed's hand is forced, inflation is getting political and not "just" an economic issue. Baseline assumption: too aggressive tightening, accepting recession in the process. Wouldn't be surprised if Fed would accept that to reign inflation in a bit. Forward Libors are lower from summer next year. Would not suggest that this inversion will lead to a recession, but market's just expecting some easing. And this stop-start I fear will catch many out. Add to that, the Fed put is nowhere close to current levels. Not a good time to hold long duration assets. So yes, it will be bumpy for quite some time. Hope to be wrong but I think we're in for a real treat: high volatility, equity prices drifting lower in general. Few up-days mistaken for being a turn-around, etc. Some markets perhaps but better (=less negative) than others, bonds a no-go and cash depreciating at maybe 5-7% pa, so where to hide?

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.


Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

Problem with gold is its relationship to the real yield and trade weighted Dollar: Gold struggles when real yields rise, adjusted for FX. Pretty stable relationship since GFC. I added some earlier in the year when the inflation persistency and Ukraine war kicked off. Not much, just a bit to cover any tail risks (Putin flying off the handle, stagflation, ...). Gold and Tips for that matter would benefit if real yields fall on the account of inflation. We've got the prospect of policy mistake on one hand and rampant inflation which - yes might come off due to the base effect, but if you me whether RPI, CPI etc is representative? No idea, am looking at my personal rate of inflation, so how to make a good CPI forecast? I can't, no idea.

adindas

bd10 said:

Type_45 said:

bd10 said:

I'll bet on policy mistake. Fed's hand is forced, inflation is getting political and not "just" an economic issue. Baseline assumption: too aggressive tightening, accepting recession in the process. Wouldn't be surprised if Fed would accept that to reign inflation in a bit. Forward Libors are lower from summer next year. Would not suggest that this inversion will lead to a recession, but market's just expecting some easing. And this stop-start I fear will catch many out. Add to that, the Fed put is nowhere close to current levels. Not a good time to hold long duration assets. So yes, it will be bumpy for quite some time. Hope to be wrong but I think we're in for a real treat: high volatility, equity prices drifting lower in general. Few up-days mistaken for being a turn-around, etc. Some markets perhaps but better (=less negative) than others, bonds a no-go and cash depreciating at maybe 5-7% pa, so where to hide?

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.


Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

Problem with gold is its relationship to the real yield and trade weighted Dollar: Gold struggles when real yields rise, adjusted for FX. Pretty stable relationship since GFC. I added some earlier in the year when the inflation persistency and Ukraine war kicked off. Not much, just a bit to cover any tail risks (Putin flying off the handle, stagflation, ...). Gold and Tips for that matter would benefit if real yields fall on the account of inflation. We've got the prospect of policy mistake on one hand and rampant inflation which - yes might come off due to the base effect, but if you me whether RPI, CPI etc is representative? No idea, am looking at my personal rate of inflation, so how to make a good CPI forecast? I can't, no idea.

You are not alone, not many people could do that; Unless they make it as  their full time job enhance with talents and skills.

Also event expert can not do that with very high precision. There are too many variables to be incorporated into the modelling. Some of them are unpredictable such as changes to wages, prices and supply shocks, natural disasters, war can change people's behaviour in ways market models simply difficult to predict.

But historically UBS is well known and quite accurate in predicting CPI in the US. I have posted this before on another thread.

https://fortune.com/2022/04/07/ubs-peak-inflation-march-consumer-price-index-2022/

He got it right that the CPI has peaked @8.5% in March but missed the figure in April (e.g Actual 8.3% vs Predicted 8.0%)

Type_45

adindas said:

bd10 said:

Type_45 said:

bd10 said:

I'll bet on policy mistake. Fed's hand is forced, inflation is getting political and not "just" an economic issue. Baseline assumption: too aggressive tightening, accepting recession in the process. Wouldn't be surprised if Fed would accept that to reign inflation in a bit. Forward Libors are lower from summer next year. Would not suggest that this inversion will lead to a recession, but market's just expecting some easing. And this stop-start I fear will catch many out. Add to that, the Fed put is nowhere close to current levels. Not a good time to hold long duration assets. So yes, it will be bumpy for quite some time. Hope to be wrong but I think we're in for a real treat: high volatility, equity prices drifting lower in general. Few up-days mistaken for being a turn-around, etc. Some markets perhaps but better (=less negative) than others, bonds a no-go and cash depreciating at maybe 5-7% pa, so where to hide?

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.


Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

Problem with gold is its relationship to the real yield and trade weighted Dollar: Gold struggles when real yields rise, adjusted for FX. Pretty stable relationship since GFC. I added some earlier in the year when the inflation persistency and Ukraine war kicked off. Not much, just a bit to cover any tail risks (Putin flying off the handle, stagflation, ...). Gold and Tips for that matter would benefit if real yields fall on the account of inflation. We've got the prospect of policy mistake on one hand and rampant inflation which - yes might come off due to the base effect, but if you me whether RPI, CPI etc is representative? No idea, am looking at my personal rate of inflation, so how to make a good CPI forecast? I can't, no idea.

You are not alone, not many people could do that; Unless they make it as  their full time job enhance with talents and skills. There are too many variables to be incorporated into the modelling. Some of them are unpredictable such as changes to wages, prices and supply shocks can change people's behaviour in ways market models simply difficult to predict.

But historically UBS is well known and quite accurate in predicting CPI in the US. I have posted this before on another thread.

https://fortune.com/2022/04/07/ubs-peak-inflation-march-consumer-price-index-2022/

He got it right that the CPI has peaked @8.5% in March but missed the figure in April (e.g Actual 8.3% vs Predicted 8.0%)

We do not know yet whether CPI peaked at 8.5%. A miniscule down tick to 8.3% doesn't tell us anything.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever say the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter