Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Michael121

When you all say the market priced in this and that, don't that include retail that don't do any such thing.

masonic

Michael121 said:

When you all say the market priced in this and that, don't that include retail that don't do any such thing.

No we're not referring to market stalls or supermarkets when we refer to the market. Retail prices do not fluctuate in response to news like stockmarkets do.

Michael121

masonic said:

Michael121 said:

When you all say the market priced in this and that, don't that include retail that don't do any such thing.

No we're not referring to market stalls or supermarkets when we refer to the market. Retail prices do not fluctuate in response to news like stockmarkets do.

There's me thinking someone was going to explain why retail investors buying regardless of price doesn't make a difference.

Not sure why you thought i was being sarcastic, was genuine question. 

Nebulous2

Malthusian said:

Nebulous2 said:

My understanding is that the US have refused to say if they would defend Taiwan, leaving the outcome open. The USofA is a massive country, with the majority of them not even having passports. Most of their attention is within their own state / country borders. Their natural inclination is isolationism, unless conflict comes to their own door, look at their reluctance to engage in WW11.

It took us three years to declare war on Germany after they invaded the Rheinland. It took the US two years to enter the war after Germany invaded France. I don't think it's fair to accuse the US of being more reluctant to get involved in wars outside its borders than any other democratic country.

The US has been continuously at war since it entered World War II. For an isolationist country that dislikes getting involved in wars, they sure wage an awful lot of them.

I'm not sure I'm 'accusing' the Us of A of anything. They are a huge country, which is far away from Europe, and its a legitimate approach for them to be more interested in what happens closer to home. They played a huge role in WWii - after overcoming their original reluctance to engage. 

That's a rather selective use of dates and events there though - the militarisation of the Rhineland doesn't bear comparison with the invasion of France, after France had declared war on Germany.

More relevant events are Poland and Pearl Harbor. We declared war after the invasion of Poland, it took an attack on their own soil, at Pearl Harbor to convince America to join in. 

A brief history of American isolationism | The Week

Nebulous2

Michael121 said:

masonic said:

Michael121 said:

When you all say the market priced in this and that, don't that include retail that don't do any such thing.

No we're not referring to market stalls or supermarkets when we refer to the market. Retail prices do not fluctuate in response to news like stockmarkets do.

There's me thinking someone was going to explain why retail investors buying regardless of price doesn't make a difference.

Not sure why you thought i was being sarcastic, was genuine question. 

I don't think people understood your question. It wasn't clear you meant retail investors. 

I'm no expert, but the 'market' combines opposing forces- those who think prices are cheap and the drop provides a buying opportunity, with those who want to get out, because they expect prices to drop further. That tug-of-war results in a balanced result which is 'efficient.' Within that central point there will be some huge outliers. 

Retail investors were hyped up during the pandemic. Those sitting at home, with spare cash, reading forums and investing spare money. They had a notable impact on a small number of stocks, and some institutions were burned by that. 

I'm not convinced they ever had the impact some people thought they did. Even if they did, many of them are back at work, they are concerned about inflation with limited pay rises, and no longer paying as much attention to shares / investing. Any interest / impact they had has reduced, and a failure to make money from investing in a bear market will reduce it further. 

masonic

Michael121 said:

masonic said:

Michael121 said:

When you all say the market priced in this and that, don't that include retail that don't do any such thing.

No we're not referring to market stalls or supermarkets when we refer to the market. Retail prices do not fluctuate in response to news like stockmarkets do.

There's me thinking someone was going to explain why retail investors buying regardless of price doesn't make a difference.

Not sure why you thought i was being sarcastic, was genuine question. 

I thought you were referring to retail prices, as in the price of goods and services, and suggesting they didn't yet fully reflect the situation, which would be correct to say. All stockmarket trades involve both a buyer and a seller. I have no idea who is on each side of the trade, but it seems just as likely private investors would sell their investments when they see them plummeting, while market makers and institutional investors exploit their panic, take those investments off their hands at a good price, to sell back to them later at a higher price. Two sides of the buy high - sell low coin that loses many private investors money. Professional/institutional capital generally exceeds private investor capital, and would normally influence a share price to a greater extent, but it all contributes to volatility and markets generally overreacting in the short term. People making regular monthly contributions to their pension fund and/or S&S ISA every month are unlikely to be having much influence on price - will be balanced out to some extent by all those drawing down / annuitising their investments in retirement.

Malthusian

Nebulous2 said:

That's a rather selective use of dates and events there though - the militarisation of the Rhineland doesn't bear comparison with the invasion of France, after France had declared war on Germany.

More relevant events are Poland and Pearl Harbor. We declared war after the invasion of Poland, it took an attack on their own soil, at Pearl Harbor to convince America to join in.

You're right, it wasn't an entirely fair comparison, but I would also point out that Japan attacked Pearl Harbor because they knew the entry of the US into the war was inevitable and they wanted to get their retaliation in first.

We were slow to enter WW2, so was the US, so was everyone else apart from Hitler. We were similarly slow to do anything about Ukraine (took us a whole eight years after the invasion of Crimea). C'est la realpolitik.

For China to assume that the US doesn't really care about Taiwan, or that the US will do nothing unless the Chinese bombs US soil, would be a huge blunder that ignored the entirety of US history.

adindas

https://www.ft.com/content/acc55aee-1b63-4f23-b52d-41fe661b0714

EU leaders agree to ban majority of Russian oil imports

Keep in mind, the oil price will effect the price of almost everything in people life that are not produced locally, so will need to be transported.

This will not help to bring down inflation. The volatility will remain high before inflation is under control e.g 2.0%. We are currently still far from here.

Type_45

My gold miners and silver just can't catch a break...

Prism

Type_45 said:

My gold miners and silver just can't catch a break...

I think your bets on either one thing happening or another are too big. I also hold some inflation protecting assets like gold and some experimental stuff like Bitcoin, but only in small amounts. Diversifying will never give you a big win when you are right about something but it removes a lot of the worries.