Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

grumiofoundation said:

Type_45 said:

coyrls said:

You suggested more than food shortages and putting quotation marks round "don't exaggerate, we'll just have war-time-like rationing" doesn't mean anybody said it.

What was said was: "If things were looking that bad, then I'm pretty sure "richer" countries would adopt "war" rationing as a last resort.", the implication being that things are not looking that bad, as we do not have rationing.

Sea Shell is saying we will have rationing. See above. 

No they didn’t.

Do you know what the word ‘if’ means? 

There is no 'if', so that caveat is obsolete. Food is already depleting and it will get worse.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

I'm not sure why there is so much use of the future tense. There is rationing at the present time, for example of sunflower oil. It's not set at a limit that will inconvenience normal customers, just as the rationing that took place during the early part of the pandemic. Food security is a bigger problem elsewhere, such as India, which is why they've restricted exports. This will have a knock-on effect and feed through into price. It will be price rather than availability that will see some people go short here, as is already starting to happen. Those with financial security will just begrudgingly pay the higher price.

Do you think the 1.5 billion people who will go hungry (that is the CEO of Citi's quote, as shared by video by someone else on this thread), won't affect capital markets?

I wouldn't presume that it hasn't already affected them.

It hasn't happened yet, other than in Sri Lanka. And food inflation hasn't impacted the UK at all, as far as I have personally seen. 

Even energy costs haven't filtered through in the UK yet. They've literally just gone up as we've switched out heating off.

The markets have absolutely not priced this stuff in. 

Sea_Shell

https://youtu.be/VmW-ScmGRMA

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

I'm not sure why there is so much use of the future tense. There is rationing at the present time, for example of sunflower oil. It's not set at a limit that will inconvenience normal customers, just as the rationing that took place during the early part of the pandemic. Food security is a bigger problem elsewhere, such as India, which is why they've restricted exports. This will have a knock-on effect and feed through into price. It will be price rather than availability that will see some people go short here, as is already starting to happen. Those with financial security will just begrudgingly pay the higher price.

Do you think the 1.5 billion people who will go hungry (that is the CEO of Citi's quote, as shared by video by someone else on this thread), won't affect capital markets?

I wouldn't presume that it hasn't already affected them.

It hasn't happened yet, other than in Sri Lanka. And food inflation hasn't impacted the UK at all, as far as I have personally seen. 

Even energy costs haven't filtered through in the UK yet. They've literally just gone up as we've switched out heating off.

The markets have absolutely not priced this stuff in. 

Markets price things in before you or I even come to know about them. That's the way it's always been. The reason they aren't having the impact that you think they should is because market participants have taken a more measured view of the news you have mentioned.

Type_45

China is allegedly getting itself on a war footing regarding Taiwan.

Price *that* in.

masonic

Type_45 said:

China is allegedly getting itself on a war footing regarding Taiwan.

Price *that* in.

They've allegedly been waiting in the wings to see how the Russia war played out on the world stage. Just one of several factors making investing in that part of the world interesting.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

China is allegedly getting itself on a war footing regarding Taiwan.

Price *that* in.

They've allegedly been waiting in the wings to see how the Russia war played out on the world stage. Just one of several factors making investing in that part of the world interesting.

Taiwan is 'Silicon Valley West'. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will impact the whole world. 

And are we going to impose sanctions on China? 

Prism

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

China is allegedly getting itself on a war footing regarding Taiwan.

Price *that* in.

They've allegedly been waiting in the wings to see how the Russia war played out on the world stage. Just one of several factors making investing in that part of the world interesting.

Taiwan is 'Silicon Valley West'. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will impact the whole world. 

And are we going to impose sanctions on China? 

No, the US will go to war to defend Taiwan. This is all very well known about and as far as the chance of it happening - priced in.

Alistair31

A U.S. conflict with China, over Taiwan, in China’s back yard, would not be pretty. 

Type_45

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

China is allegedly getting itself on a war footing regarding Taiwan.

Price *that* in.

They've allegedly been waiting in the wings to see how the Russia war played out on the world stage. Just one of several factors making investing in that part of the world interesting.

Taiwan is 'Silicon Valley West'. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will impact the whole world. 

And are we going to impose sanctions on China? 

No, the US will go to war to defend Taiwan. This is all very well known about and as far as the chance of it happening - priced in.

The reality of it has not been priced in.  Because if it had your stocks would be worth a fraction of what they currently are.