Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

lozzy1965 said:

Yes, I was going to say that deflation is definitely not desirable, but there appears to be some debate on the matter:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/111715/can-deflation-be-good.asp.

It's desirable to me. If my cost of living went down I'd find that very desirable.

lozzy1965

Type_45 said:

lozzy1965 said:

Yes, I was going to say that deflation is definitely not desirable, but there appears to be some debate on the matter:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/111715/can-deflation-be-good.asp.

It's desirable to me. If my cost of living went down I'd find that very desirable.

Well, fortunately governments at least try to make policy decisions on what is best for the population as a whole as it tends to help them get re-elected.  At least that's the theory in a democracy!
Would you find it desirable if your taxes went up to balance out your good fortune with those less fortunate souls without any surplus income?

Nebulous2

Type_45 said:

lozzy1965 said:

Yes, I was going to say that deflation is definitely not desirable, but there appears to be some debate on the matter:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/111715/can-deflation-be-good.asp.

It's desirable to me. If my cost of living went down I'd find that very desirable.

We are very much a service economy, with many of the jobs dependent on consumption. If people expect deflation they stop buying. Why would they buy a car if they expect it to be cheaper next year? 

Deflation has bedevilled Japan for some 30 years or so, and it has been hugely problematic. 

2% ish is seen as a sweet spot, which keeps the economy ticking over as a balance between two more damaging extremes. 

Swipe

Nebulous2 said:

Type_45 said:

lozzy1965 said:

Yes, I was going to say that deflation is definitely not desirable, but there appears to be some debate on the matter:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/111715/can-deflation-be-good.asp.

It's desirable to me. If my cost of living went down I'd find that very desirable.

2% ish is seen as a sweet spot, which keeps the economy ticking over as a balance between two more damaging extremes. 

For such an expert on disaster economics I'm surprised he doesn't already know this. It's basic stuff.

Alistair31

Swipe said:

Nebulous2 said:

Type_45 said:

lozzy1965 said:

Yes, I was going to say that deflation is definitely not desirable, but there appears to be some debate on the matter:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/111715/can-deflation-be-good.asp.

It's desirable to me. If my cost of living went down I'd find that very desirable.

2% ish is seen as a sweet spot, which keeps the economy ticking over as a balance between two more damaging extremes. 

For such an expert on disaster economics I'm surprised he doesn't already know this. It's basic stuff.

Sergei Shoigu is also a disasters expert…

Type_45

Swipe said:

Nebulous2 said:

Type_45 said:

lozzy1965 said:

Yes, I was going to say that deflation is definitely not desirable, but there appears to be some debate on the matter:
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/111715/can-deflation-be-good.asp.

It's desirable to me. If my cost of living went down I'd find that very desirable.

2% ish is seen as a sweet spot, which keeps the economy ticking over as a balance between two more damaging extremes. 

... an expert on disaster economics...

Thank you.

Type_45

Are puts possible on iWeb?  Could have done with that on my disastrous gold miner stock.

Type_45

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

sevenhills

Type_45 said:

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

If QT is an issue, they might tread very slowly or cancel it altogether?

bd10

I'll bet on policy mistake. Fed's hand is forced, inflation is getting political and not "just" an economic issue. Baseline assumption: too aggressive tightening, accepting recession in the process. Wouldn't be surprised if Fed would accept that to reign inflation in a bit. Forward Libors are lower from summer next year. Would not suggest that this inversion will lead to a recession, but market's just expecting some easing. And this stop-start I fear will catch many out. Add to that, the Fed put is nowhere close to current levels. Not a good time to hold long duration assets. So yes, it will be bumpy for quite some time. Hope to be wrong but I think we're in for a real treat: high volatility, equity prices drifting lower in general. Few up-days mistaken for being a turn-around, etc. Some markets perhaps but better (=less negative) than others, bonds a no-go and cash depreciating at maybe 5-7% pa, so where to hide?