Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever say the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

It will depend how you interpret it. But we are already in economic hurricane are not we ?? Inflation is the highest since 40 years, Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, Food supply shortages War in Ukraine effecting Oil and Gas Supply, Crops / Wheat supply. These have never been in the history of the stock market come together simultaneously at the same time. But These have been known, thus priced in the market.

The market will response negatively if it is getting worse. Other future geo political issue, Another pandemic lockdown might not have been priced in the market.

One thing Jamie Dimon have not mentioned or forget to mention is that the unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the history.

That is the other side of the argument from stock market strategists, analysts who believe that we are already close to the bottom. The CPI is falling but the core CPI (food, energy) are still rising. So beside CPI it is also good to watch abut the Core CPI, the PCE

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

It will depend how you interpret it. But we are already in economic hurricane are not we ?? Inflation is the highest since 40 years, Supply Chain problem, Chip shortages, Food supply shortages War in Ukraine effecting Oil and Gas Supply, Crops / Wheat supply. These have never been in the history of the stock market come together simultaneously at the same time. But These have been known, thus priced in the market.

The market will response negatively if it is getting worse. Other future geo political issue, Another pandemic lockdown might not have been priced in the market.

One thing Jamie Dimon have not mentioned or forget to mention is that the unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the history.

That is the other side of the argument from stock market strategists, analysts who believe that we are already close to the bottom. The CPI is falling but the core CPI (food, energy) are still rising. So beside CPI it is also good to watch abut the Core CPI, the PCE

Unemployment rises AFTER an economy has entered recession. It’s the most lagging of all economic indicators.

Whichever strategists and analysts you are listening to need to re-read their "Economics 101" handbook.

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/brace-yourself-jamie-dimon-warns-of-a-coming-economic-hurricane-that-will-require-preparation-as-the-fed-shrinks-its-balance-sheet/articleshow/91948892.cms

Did you notice he also said this

"Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm Sandy... or Andrew or something like that," he said.

Even CPI is coming down gradually but it can not be said that the hurricane is over as the Fed has scheduled QT, to begin this month and will ramp up to $95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings.

Once the FED start reducing its balance sheet it will be another plunge in the market.

The war in Ukraine has been priced in the market but  its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. But once Oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel said, that will be another story.

Also beside the low unemployment rate  the the US bank and US banks and consumers are doing fine right now, there are about US$2T are sitting in saving account. This money will start to flowing back to the stock market once the confidence is restored because money ins saving is just money losing strategy in the long run.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/brace-yourself-jamie-dimon-warns-of-a-coming-economic-hurricane-that-will-require-preparation-as-the-fed-shrinks-its-balance-sheet/articleshow/91948892.cms

Did you notice he also said this

"Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm Sandy... or Andrew or something like that," he said.

Even CPI is coming down gradually but it can not be said that the hurricane is over as the Fed has scheduled QT, to begin this month and will ramp up to $95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings.

Once the FED start reducing its balance sheet it will be another plunge in the market.

The war in Ukraine has been priced in the market but  its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. But once Oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel said, that will be another story.

Also beside the low unemployment rate  the the US bank and US banks and consumers are doing fine right now, there are about US$2T are sitting in saving account. This money will start to flowing back to the stock market once the confidence is restored because money ins saving is just money losing strategy in the long run.

I established in my previous post that the "experts" you follow don't even have a grasp of the basic fundamentals of economics.

Are you going to answer that point? Or are you going to pretend that my previous post didn't happen?

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/brace-yourself-jamie-dimon-warns-of-a-coming-economic-hurricane-that-will-require-preparation-as-the-fed-shrinks-its-balance-sheet/articleshow/91948892.cms

Did you notice he also said this

"Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm Sandy... or Andrew or something like that," he said.

Even CPI is coming down gradually but it can not be said that the hurricane is over as the Fed has scheduled QT, to begin this month and will ramp up to $95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings.

Once the FED start reducing its balance sheet it will be another plunge in the market.

The war in Ukraine has been priced in the market but  its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. But once Oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel said, that will be another story.

Also beside the low unemployment rate  the the US bank and US banks and consumers are doing fine right now, there are about US$2T are sitting in saving account. This money will start to flowing back to the stock market once the confidence is restored because money ins saving is just money losing strategy in the long run.

I established in my previous post that the "experts" you follow don't even have a grasp of the basic fundamentals of economics.

Are you going to answer that point? Or are you going to pretend that my previous post didn't happen?

I do not follow any expert. I listen and watch all of their views pro and contra and I make up my own decision. What previous post are you talking prediction from prophet that the stock market  will fall 80% ?? I already answered that and I give my reasoning.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/brace-yourself-jamie-dimon-warns-of-a-coming-economic-hurricane-that-will-require-preparation-as-the-fed-shrinks-its-balance-sheet/articleshow/91948892.cms

Did you notice he also said this

"Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm Sandy... or Andrew or something like that," he said.

Even CPI is coming down gradually but it can not be said that the hurricane is over as the Fed has scheduled QT, to begin this month and will ramp up to $95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings.

Once the FED start reducing its balance sheet it will be another plunge in the market.

The war in Ukraine has been priced in the market but  its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. But once Oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel said, that will be another story.

Also beside the low unemployment rate  the the US bank and US banks and consumers are doing fine right now, there are about US$2T are sitting in saving account. This money will start to flowing back to the stock market once the confidence is restored because money ins saving is just money losing strategy in the long run.

I established in my previous post that the "experts" you follow don't even have a grasp of the basic fundamentals of economics.

Are you going to answer that point? Or are you going to pretend that my previous post didn't happen?

I do not follow any expert. I listen and watch all of their views pro and contra and I make up my own decision. What previous post are you talking prediction from prophet that the stock market  will fall 80% ?? I already answered that and I give my reasoning.

You said the "current low unemployment rate means we are close to the bottom, according to strategists and analysts".  

Who exactly are these strategists and analysts?  Please provide a link to where they said this.  Please give us their names.


Here are your exact words:

"One thing Jamie Dimon have not mentioned or forget to mention is that the unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the history.

That is the other side of the argument from stock market strategists, analysts who believe that we are already close to the bottom. "

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/brace-yourself-jamie-dimon-warns-of-a-coming-economic-hurricane-that-will-require-preparation-as-the-fed-shrinks-its-balance-sheet/articleshow/91948892.cms

Did you notice he also said this

"Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm Sandy... or Andrew or something like that," he said.

Even CPI is coming down gradually but it can not be said that the hurricane is over as the Fed has scheduled QT, to begin this month and will ramp up to $95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings.

Once the FED start reducing its balance sheet it will be another plunge in the market.

The war in Ukraine has been priced in the market but  its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. But once Oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel said, that will be another story.

Also beside the low unemployment rate  the the US bank and US banks and consumers are doing fine right now, there are about US$2T are sitting in saving account. This money will start to flowing back to the stock market once the confidence is restored because money ins saving is just money losing strategy in the long run.

I established in my previous post that the "experts" you follow don't even have a grasp of the basic fundamentals of economics.

Are you going to answer that point? Or are you going to pretend that my previous post didn't happen?

I do not follow any expert. I listen and watch all of their views pro and contra and I make up my own decision. What previous post are you talking prediction from prophet that the stock market  will fall 80% ?? I already answered that and I give my reasoning.

You said the "current low unemployment rate means we are close to the bottom, according to strategists and analysts".  

Who exactly are these strategists and analysts?  Please provide a link to where they said this.  Please give us their names.

If you watch CNBC TV regularly, many analysts / strategists are saying that.

Also have you ever seen in the previous recession / depression in the history where unemployment rate were at the lowest points.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Gold? But that price will presumably come down too, so timing it right could be profitable.

Regarding the markets, I was looking at some graphs yesterday of bear markets of the past. They suck money in from the sidelines with promising rallies. Sometimes the rallies will be 20%+. Only to fall even further. 

"The job of a bear market is to take as much money as possible" - Someone on Twitter.

That why it is called bear market. In the bear market the market have more tendency to fall rather than to rise.

It is the hearsay. Do not bet against the market trend. Do not bet against the FED.

You will need to stop reading rubbish from some random prophet you do not know from social media. Focus more on authoritative sources.

The market is not sucking people money. It is the people emotion such as panic buying, selling, that prompt people to move to different type of assets. Stock is not the only market in investing, there are competing options such as bonds, commodities (gold, silver, oils, etc), properties, antic collectible, paintings, etc). People rotating their money that cause yo-yo in the market. The money is not gone, it is only that it is not in the stock market. If the FUD, uncertainty in the market is removed, the confidence restored the people will start put their money into the stock market.

Also the markets are also full of traders who could do trading in both direction of the markets, the hedge funds, etc the people who know what they are doing.

Jamie Dimon is not an authoritative figure then? 

Well, I might have missed but did Jamie Dimon ever said the stock marker will dive at 80% before returning to up trend? any link ??

Also even they are experts they never get it right all the time 100%. For that reason it is important to listen to both sides and you make up your own judgement.

"Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane"

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/brace-yourself-jamie-dimon-warns-of-a-coming-economic-hurricane-that-will-require-preparation-as-the-fed-shrinks-its-balance-sheet/articleshow/91948892.cms

Did you notice he also said this

"Right now, it's kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm Sandy... or Andrew or something like that," he said.

Even CPI is coming down gradually but it can not be said that the hurricane is over as the Fed has scheduled QT, to begin this month and will ramp up to $95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings.

Once the FED start reducing its balance sheet it will be another plunge in the market.

The war in Ukraine has been priced in the market but  its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. But once Oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel said, that will be another story.

Also beside the low unemployment rate  the the US bank and US banks and consumers are doing fine right now, there are about US$2T are sitting in saving account. This money will start to flowing back to the stock market once the confidence is restored because money ins saving is just money losing strategy in the long run.

I established in my previous post that the "experts" you follow don't even have a grasp of the basic fundamentals of economics.

Are you going to answer that point? Or are you going to pretend that my previous post didn't happen?

I do not follow any expert. I listen and watch all of their views pro and contra and I make up my own decision. What previous post are you talking prediction from prophet that the stock market  will fall 80% ?? I already answered that and I give my reasoning.

You said the "current low unemployment rate means we are close to the bottom, according to strategists and analysts".  

Who exactly are these strategists and analysts?  Please provide a link to where they said this.  Please give us their names.

If you watch CNBC TV regularly, many analysts / strategists are saying that.

Also have you ever seen in the previous recession / depression in the history where unemployment rate were at the lowest points.

No, I don't watch CNBC.  That's an American TV channel, I think...  I'm in the UK.  Is that where we should be going then for our economics?  Which economists are you quoting from CNBC?

And are you saying that in previous recessions more people had jobs?  Unemployment dropped?