Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Adyinvestment

Type_45 said:

The central banks are trapped.  They cannot raise rates.  They may do so another once or twice, and then the wheels will fall off and they will loosen policy again.

And when this happens (and I am inclined to agree with you on this - although perhaps a few more hikes) the markets will go risk on and up we go again, I don't see how this will achieve your 80% crash this time around.

lozzy1965

FTSE100 is up 0.13% today so I'm not worried.

Type_45

FTSE down 0.38% so far.  Minutes left to go.


SPY in free fall.  Down 2.27% so far.

  

Type_45

My commodities position has made almost 14% since I bought it two months ago.

I am looking to sell it this week when an attractive price becomes available and I will keep the proceeds in cash. 

This will mean that I am approximately 27% in cash.

coastline

Type_45 said:

TonyTeacake said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Andrew Bailey says that this inflation has not been caused by monetary policy - I'm inclined to agree.

Bank of England not to blame for soaring inflation, says Bailey | This is Money

He would say that.  He's lying.

The BOE have got all their predictions wrong about inflation and will panic by the end of the year if inflation isn't going down, so the only thing they can do is be more aggressive in raising interest rates which could be 10% by the end of 2023.

Rates may technically need to be at that level, given the state of the economy etc.

But they will never get remotely close to that before the economy falls apart.


Politicians and central banks have bankrupted the world.  That's where we're at.  Rates have been reduced to near-zero because that's the only thing keeping the show on the road until they implement whatever the new financial system will be.

The central banks are trapped.  They cannot raise rates.  They may do so another once or twice, and then the wheels will fall off and they will loosen policy again.  At that stage everyone will see they have completely lost control and the whole thing will fall apart.


Does anyone actually think that the FED and the BoE can't see this?  You think they are that incompetent?  No.  They are lying.  If they told the truth the whole thing would fall apart right now whilst you're having your lunch.

Another team member said this yesterday..

Fed’s Bostic calls for caution as Fed raises rates: ‘Even firetrucks with sirens blaring slow down at intersections’ - MarketWatch

United States Government Bond 10Y - 2022 Data - 1912-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

‘Markets are imploding’ because the Fed isn’t doing its job, says billionaire investor Bill Ackman - MarketWatch

Solid 2Y Auction Stops Through Despite Plunge In Yields | ZeroHedge

masonic

Type_45 said:

My commodities position has made almost 14% since I bought it two months ago.

I am looking to sell it this week when an attractive price becomes available and I will keep the proceeds in cash. 

This will mean that I am approximately 27% in cash.

I think you've done well to catch the end of that trend. I was sceptical it had much further to run. So seems a sensible move to lock in those gains. With a slice of your metal holdings you'll have something resembling a bonds proxy when combined with this cash, but without the interest rate sensitivity.

themoomins

Thrugelmir said:

TonyTeacake said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Andrew Bailey says that this inflation has not been caused by monetary policy - I'm inclined to agree.

Bank of England not to blame for soaring inflation, says Bailey | This is Money

He would say that.  He's lying.

The BOE have got all their predictions wrong about inflation 

You ever tried predicting inflation?  

In the midst of the government printing and frittering over £300 billion over the last two years, along with the restricted supply of almost everything from car components to door lintels, I can say that I did confidently predict inflation being very high, and I have no supernatural powers! 

themoomins

lozzy1965 said:

FTSE100 is up 0.13% today so I'm not worried.

The stock market seems completely untethered to reality at this point. Up and down like a yoyo.  Up 0.13 today, down 0.24 tomorrow for no rhyme or reason.  Very volatile.

As an aside, I have a range of different crypto currencies and what I have noticed is that when America is tucked up in bed, the currencies seem to go up, and when America wakes up they start falling again.  This seems to be the pattern every day although I don't know if it has been happening long term since I only recently noticed.

masonic

themoomins said:

Thrugelmir said:

TonyTeacake said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Andrew Bailey says that this inflation has not been caused by monetary policy - I'm inclined to agree.

Bank of England not to blame for soaring inflation, says Bailey | This is Money

He would say that.  He's lying.

The BOE have got all their predictions wrong about inflation 

You ever tried predicting inflation?  

In the midst of the government printing and frittering over £300 billion over the last two years, along with the restricted supply of almost everything from car components to door lintels, I can say that I did confidently predict inflation being very high, and I have no supernatural powers! 

What did you predict about the £600bn printed following the global financial crisis and before the £300bn you mention? Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Inflation fears started over a decade ago. In the end it was global politics we should have been afraid of.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

My commodities position has made almost 14% since I bought it two months ago.

I am looking to sell it this week when an attractive price becomes available and I will keep the proceeds in cash. 

This will mean that I am approximately 27% in cash.

I think you've done well to catch the end of that trend. I was sceptical it had much further to run. So seems a sensible move to lock in those gains. With a slice of your metal holdings you'll have something resembling a bonds proxy when combined with this cash, but without the interest rate sensitivity.

Yes, it should then be quite a defensive position after I sell the commodities shortly.

Gold (some physical + SGLN) = 30%
Cash = 27% (most of which I will leave in my S&S ISA ready to use as and when)
Silver (some physical + SSLN) = 18%
Gold Miners ETF (GJGB) = 15% (Disaster so far.  Only bought it recently and it's gone down 18%)
Crypto = 9% (An even bigger disaster.  Lost 2/3 of its value since October 2021.  Absolutely horrendous).

My hope would be a melt-up where my Gold Miners ETF and crypto get a boost before I reduce my exposure to them.  I went way OTT with the crypto exposure (it was 20%).