Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

k6chris

Adyinvestment said:

I predict the markets will go up 80% from this point in the future

It will go up at least 50% before then.

Sea_Shell

I'd be happy with 25%      which will come even sooner!!!


(we could go on like this all day  )

Type_45

What defensive stocks do people use/recommend?

Are there any defensive ETFs in the UK?  (Capital Gearing Trust?)

masonic

Type_45 said:

What defensive stocks do people use/recommend?

Are there any defensive ETFs in the UK?  (Capital Gearing Trust?)

I have been using CGT, PNL and to a lesser extent RICA as an alternative to bonds in my portfolio for a while now. RCP is another option that is sometimes discussed. You'll find several recent threads about these. These are all investment trusts, not ETFs. You'll not find an ETF that's comparable to these as the essence of their strategy is active management of asset allocation. Infrastructure funds are also sometimes mentioned as defensive holdings, but I wouldn't say the case is as strong for these (getting them at the right price, i.e. not now, would be key).

m_c_s

Capital Gearing Trust is only down 0.97% year to date and up 0.2% over the last 6 months so doing quite well.

It is an interesting asset mix:

Index Linked Gov’t Bonds 32%

Conventional Gov’t Bonds 6%

Pref Shares / Corp Debt 11%

Funds / Equities 44%

Cash 6%

Gold 1%

With the 44% funds and equities comprising:

Equities 16%

Property 16% 

Loans 4%

Infrastructure 8%

Private Equity / Hedge 1%

Type_45

m_c_s said:

Capital Gearing Trust is only down 0.97% year to date and up 0.2% over the last 6 months so doing quite well.

It is an interesting asset mix:

Index Linked Gov’t Bonds 32%

Conventional Gov’t Bonds 6%

Pref Shares / Corp Debt 11%

Funds / Equities 44%

Cash 6%

Gold 1%

With the 44% funds and equities comprising:

Equities 16%

Property 16% 

Loans 4%

Infrastructure 8%

Private Equity / Hedge 1%

Cash has performed better than that...

masonic

Type_45 said:

Cash has performed better than that...

If you have good market timing, just buy the asset you've identified will perform best over the next 6-12 months and leave it at that.

The rest of us mere mortals will console ourselves with the 3 year performance figure of 24%.

(Ruffer has done rather better than CGT over the short term @ 11.5% over 12 months and 6.4% over 6 months)

m_c_s

Type_45 said:

m_c_s said:

Capital Gearing Trust is only down 0.97% year to date and up 0.2% over the last 6 months so doing quite well.

It is an interesting asset mix:

Index Linked Gov’t Bonds 32%

Conventional Gov’t Bonds 6%

Pref Shares / Corp Debt 11%

Funds / Equities 44%

Cash 6%

Gold 1%

With the 44% funds and equities comprising:

Equities 16%

Property 16% 

Loans 4%

Infrastructure 8%

Private Equity / Hedge 1%

Cash has performed better than that...

Capital gearing is up 5.8% over the last year so cash has not performed better.

Type_45

Pay very close attention to what's happening in Sri Lanka.

They are the first to fall. Sad to see.

What's happening there is coming to Europe.

Type_45

m_c_s said:

Type_45 said:

m_c_s said:

Capital Gearing Trust is only down 0.97% year to date and up 0.2% over the last 6 months so doing quite well.

It is an interesting asset mix:

Index Linked Gov’t Bonds 32%

Conventional Gov’t Bonds 6%

Pref Shares / Corp Debt 11%

Funds / Equities 44%

Cash 6%

Gold 1%

With the 44% funds and equities comprising:

Equities 16%

Property 16% 

Loans 4%

Infrastructure 8%

Private Equity / Hedge 1%

Cash has performed better than that...

Capital gearing is up 5.8% over the last year so cash has not performed better.

Come the liquidity crunch, everything will go down.