Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Thrugelmir

[Deleted User] said:

Thrugelmir said:

Deleted_User said:

The economy must be being held back massively by issues with the workforce.

I went to a few places today, and they had hardly any staff and everything took ages. The local bank had to close because they had no staff. All very odd, how long has our economy been run on a bare bones profitability, exploiting cheap labour. Many places will not survive. 

Besides an ageing population, Gold plated pension schemes, inheritances, superb investment returns, property price inflation. Why bother to work? 

Many may be forced to if the economy crashes. 

Companies need to attract people, they need to offer a proper job fit for proper life. Most of these companies have stripped away all the benefits etc they gave to employers because it became easy to find cheaper replacements. Now they can't do that, they will pay.

US companies are profitable for good reason. Many would struggle to achieve ESG status if were rigorously enforced . Tesla being kicked out of the S&P500 ESG is long overdue. 

Type_45

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

Just two FED rate hikes in, and we are in a bear market.

Just 9 or 10 hikes to go, guys 👍

Will they get there that's the question ? 

I don't think they'll get anywhere near it.

It will either:

A)  Collapse 80% as they hike rates

B ) The FED will panic as the markets collapse, reverse course, print more money, and then the markets rise even more and then collapse anyway.

Either way, it's collapsing.

Stargunner

Type_45 said:

Adyinvestment said:

Type_45 said:

Adyinvestment said:

Type_45 said:

The S&P lost 57% in 2008.

This crash will be bigger.

Technically the S&P is not in a crash at this time, it is still in a technical correction.

Although it is very close.

Incorrect. It has now declined 20% from its high and is in a bear market. 

Ha ha, it wasn't 45 minutes ago

45 minutes is a long time in economics.

S&P down almost 2% today.

A lot more can happen in 3 hours, like turning positive and out of a bear market

Thrugelmir

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

Just two FED rate hikes in, and we are in a bear market.

Just 9 or 10 hikes to go, guys 👍

Will they get there that's the question ? 

I don't think they'll get anywhere near it.

It will either:

A)  Collapse 80% as they hike rates

B ) The FED will panic as the markets collapse, reverse course, print more money, and then the markets rise even more and then collapse anyway.

Either way, it's collapsing.

The Fed isn't going to panic. You can tell that by the fact that it doesn't provide a daily commentary on events. Instead taking a more measured approach of pulling levers then seeing what the results are. 

Type_45

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

Just two FED rate hikes in, and we are in a bear market.

Just 9 or 10 hikes to go, guys 👍

Will they get there that's the question ? 

I don't think they'll get anywhere near it.

It will either:

A)  Collapse 80% as they hike rates

B ) The FED will panic as the markets collapse, reverse course, print more money, and then the markets rise even more and then collapse anyway.

Either way, it's collapsing.

The Fed isn't going to panic. You can tell that by the fact that it doesn't provide a daily commentary on events. Instead taking a more measured approach of pulling levers then seeing what the results are. 

They only have one lever.  And that's money printing.  They can ease and they can tighten.  That's it.

Type_45

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

Adyinvestment said:

Type_45 said:

Adyinvestment said:

Type_45 said:

The S&P lost 57% in 2008.

This crash will be bigger.

Technically the S&P is not in a crash at this time, it is still in a technical correction.

Although it is very close.

Incorrect. It has now declined 20% from its high and is in a bear market. 

Ha ha, it wasn't 45 minutes ago

45 minutes is a long time in economics.

S&P down almost 2% today.

A lot more can happen in 3 hours, like turning positive and out of a bear market

Book-marked.

adindas

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

Adyinvestment said:

Type_45 said:

Adyinvestment said:

Type_45 said:

The S&P lost 57% in 2008.

This crash will be bigger.

Technically the S&P is not in a crash at this time, it is still in a technical correction.

Although it is very close.

Incorrect. It has now declined 20% from its high and is in a bear market. 

Ha ha, it wasn't 45 minutes ago

45 minutes is a long time in economics.

S&P down almost 2% today.

A lot more can happen in 3 hours, like turning positive and out of a bear market

It does not matter whether it turns out <20% within hours today. Today is officially marked as the bear market for S&P500. NASDAQ was already in the bear market since March 2022. Keep in mind the stock market downtrend where many high growth stocks price have fallen were started in November 2021.

Bear turn to become a bull market confirmation will not happen within hours, it takes months.

In average the Bear Market takes about 10 months while the longest bear market happened in the great depression lasted 61 months.

The bear market this time is quite different. There are a lot of negative factors come together such as the highest inflation since 40 years, global supply chain problem, global chip shortages, war in Ukraine effecting Oils/Gas and energy supply, Global Crops/Grain supply shortages. It seems Fear of new variant of COVID leading to lock down has never ended and come back to spook the stock market.

The US Q1 2022 GDP has been reported fallen recently. Another  quarter of GDP drop will confirm that the US economy is already in recession, which might also lead to stagflation.

But the good things is the unemployment rate is still one of the lowest in history. Also the US inflation seemed to peak in March @8.5%. April inflation was down to 8.3%, it is only that in April Inflation report, the core inflation which include food and energy is still rising.

Type_45

True or false?:

The Dow Jones has closed down for the past 8 weeks.  This hasn't happened for 90 years.

coastline

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

Just two FED rate hikes in, and we are in a bear market.

Just 9 or 10 hikes to go, guys 👍

Will they get there that's the question ? 

I don't think they'll get anywhere near it.

It will either:

A)  Collapse 80% as they hike rates

B ) The FED will panic as the markets collapse, reverse course, print more money, and then the markets rise even more and then collapse anyway.

Either way, it's collapsing.

There's always one of the team making a statement every other day. Yesterdays reply to the media. Lift rates to 3.5% this year and have room to cut if under control. He's not going to say cut if there's a slowdown which is also possible.

Fed could cut rates in 2023, 2024 once inflation under control -Bullard | Reuters

So sharp rate increases drop the markets and that's the game today. Grey areas are recessions on the chart which they'll try to avoid. Any increase in the jobless figures will be one of the clues. 1950 in the bottom left corner is similar where rates were near zero. Can only wait and see how it pans out.

FTOWjuOWYAAWkmJ (900×468) (twimg.com)

Positive in general as we go forward but only data after all.

FTOiL5yXwAI3YEs (696×448) (twimg.com)

Adyinvestment

I predict the markets will go up 80% from this point in the future