Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

OldMoneySaver

adindas said:

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

Those advocating trying to time the market will naturally believe that they know what's going to happen in the future, so if you believe that you know that markets will decline from here then fill your boots, but as most amateur investors don't believe they know that (to any degree of certainty), they steer clear of trying to time the market!

Out of curiosity, when do you think we'll hit the bottom, and at what sort of level, if you believe we're not there yet?

adindas

OldMoneySaver said:

adindas said:

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

Those advocating trying to time the market will naturally believe that they know what's going to happen in the future, so if you believe that you know that markets will decline from here then fill your boots, but as most amateur investors don't believe they know that (to any degree of certainty), they steer clear of trying to time the market!

Out of curiosity, when do you think we'll hit the bottom, and at what sort of level, if you believe we're not there yet?

Read the news, International affair listen from authoritative sources there are a lot them on CNBC TV, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Wall street Journal, Seeking Alpha, CNN, Fox Business, Market watch, Forbes, etc

It is not about timing the market in PERFECTION. Noone has crystal ball, so noone get it 100% right, it is about a better probability to be on the right side.

About DCA (e.g drip feeding) beat Lump-sum people could easily see that during the bear market the market will fall more than it rises. So you will get a better probability performing better using DCA rather than blindly throwing all the money you currently have into the lion den.   

Some knowledgeable people, like hedge funds, acute traders are using technical indicators, historical statistics, fundamental analysis. True, past performance is not indicator for future performance. But you will get a better chance to be on the right side using the historical statistical data rather just blindly jumping.

True, in the long run e.g 15yr+ it does not really matter. But if you could refine your result during this particular bear market, why not. Also keep in mind not all people have that much time waiting for 15yr+.

OldMoneySaver

adindas said:

OldMoneySaver said:

adindas said:

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

Those advocating trying to time the market will naturally believe that they know what's going to happen in the future, so if you believe that you know that markets will decline from here then fill your boots, but as most amateur investors don't believe they know that (to any degree of certainty), they steer clear of trying to time the market!

Out of curiosity, when do you think we'll hit the bottom, and at what sort of level, if you believe we're not there yet?

Read the news, International affair listen from authoritative sources there are a lot them on CNBC TV, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Wall street Journal, Seeking Alpha, Fox Business,

It is not about time the market in PERFECTION. Noone can not get 100% right, it is about probability to be on the right side.

About DCA beat Lump-sum people could easily see that during the bear market the market will fall more than it rises. So you will get a better probability performing better using DCA rather than blindly throwing your money into the lion den.   

Some knowledgeable people, like hedge funds, acute traders are using technical indicators, historical statistics. True, past performance is not indicator for future performance. But you will get a better chance to be on the right side using the historical statistical data rather just blindly jumping.

Perhaps you felt that you'd answered my question, but as you didn't, I'll repeat it, with added emphasis:

Out of curiosity, when do you think we'll hit the bottom, and at what sort of level, if you believe we're not there yet?

Anyone can see the duration and severity of bear markets with hindsight, and how optimal investing could have panned out, but the issue for investors here and now is all about the future direction, so if you're confident that it'll be heading down, I'm asking for how long and to what level?

Michael121

Pointless comparing dca vs lump when your already invested. So your not really making an informed decision of timing the market with dca when that's your only option anyway because there is no lump sum. 

If you wanted to time the market instead you would stop using dca or take profit and either build cash or get in something you know will go up. 

Type_45

Just sold my commodities after two months of holding.  13.27% profit.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

My commodities position has made almost 14% since I bought it two months ago.

I am looking to sell it this week when an attractive price becomes available and I will keep the proceeds in cash. 

This will mean that I am approximately 27% in cash.

I think you've done well to catch the end of that trend. I was sceptical it had much further to run. So seems a sensible move to lock in those gains. With a slice of your metal holdings you'll have something resembling a bonds proxy when combined with this cash, but without the interest rate sensitivity.

Yes, it should then be quite a defensive position after I sell the commodities shortly.

Gold (some physical + SGLN) = 30%
Cash = 27% (most of which I will leave in my S&S ISA ready to use as and when)
Silver (some physical + SSLN) = 18%
Gold Miners ETF (GJGB) = 15% (Disaster so far.  Only bought it recently and it's gone down 18%)
Crypto = 9% (An even bigger disaster.  Lost 2/3 of its value since October 2021.  Absolutely horrendous).

My hope would be a melt-up where my Gold Miners ETF and crypto get a boost before I reduce my exposure to them.  I went way OTT with the crypto exposure (it was 20%).

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

I am expecting the equities market to collapse.  When it does, I also expect gold/silver to go down with it.  But I expect gold/silver to come out of it better once money starts flowing there.

Having a cash allocation means that:

1)  Some of my portfolio is safeguarded when everything goes down.
2)  I have cash to take advantage of cheap gold/silver stocks (SGLN & SSLN) in anticipation of gold/silver rising sharply before equities do.
3)  If I so choose, I can buy equities at a 50%-80% discount.  My plan is to stick with gold/silver ETCs (SGLN & SSLN), but I may be tempted to buy a small bag of equities (probably VWRP) at a 50%-80% discount.



You obviously don't share my views about the financial Armageddon we are facing.  But let me ask you this theoretical question:  if you thought the market was about to tank by 80%, how would you be positioning your portfolio?

Type_45

Adyinvestment said:

Type_45 said:

Yes, it should then be quite a defensive position after I sell the commodities shortly.

Gold (some physical + SGLN) = 30%
Cash = 27% (most of which I will leave in my S&S ISA ready to use as and when)
Silver (some physical + SSLN) = 18%
Gold Miners ETF (GJGB) = 15% (Disaster so far.  Only bought it recently and it's gone down 18%)
Crypto = 9% (An even bigger disaster.  Lost 2/3 of its value since October 2021.  Absolutely horrendous).

My hope would be a melt-up where my Gold Miners ETF and crypto get a boost before I reduce my exposure to them.  I went way OTT with the crypto exposure (it was 20%).

Fair play for listing your holdings.

Your portfolio is probably doing better than mine 

I would have been over the moon, but the gold miners and crypto were gambles which have hammered me.  I hope there is a melt-up before the crash in which gold miners and crypto both play in order for me to reduce/exit my exposure to them.

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

My commodities position has made almost 14% since I bought it two months ago.

I am looking to sell it this week when an attractive price becomes available and I will keep the proceeds in cash. 

This will mean that I am approximately 27% in cash.

I think you've done well to catch the end of that trend. I was sceptical it had much further to run. So seems a sensible move to lock in those gains. With a slice of your metal holdings you'll have something resembling a bonds proxy when combined with this cash, but without the interest rate sensitivity.

Yes, it should then be quite a defensive position after I sell the commodities shortly.

Gold (some physical + SGLN) = 30%
Cash = 27% (most of which I will leave in my S&S ISA ready to use as and when)
Silver (some physical + SSLN) = 18%
Gold Miners ETF (GJGB) = 15% (Disaster so far.  Only bought it recently and it's gone down 18%)
Crypto = 9% (An even bigger disaster.  Lost 2/3 of its value since October 2021.  Absolutely horrendous).

My hope would be a melt-up where my Gold Miners ETF and crypto get a boost before I reduce my exposure to them.  I went way OTT with the crypto exposure (it was 20%).

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

I am expecting the equities market to collapse.  When it does, I also expect gold/silver to go down with it.  But I expect gold/silver to come out of it better once money starts flowing there.

Having a cash allocation means that:

1)  Some of my portfolio is safeguarded when everything goes down.
2)  I have cash to take advantage of cheap gold/silver stocks (SGLN & SSLN) in anticipation of gold/silver rising sharply before equities do.
3)  If I so choose, I can buy equities at a 50%-80% discount.  My plan is to stick with gold/silver ETCs (SGLN & SSLN), but I may be tempted to buy a small bag of equities (probably VWRP) at a 50%-80% discount.

You obviously don't share my views about the financial Armageddon we are facing.  But let me ask you this theoretical question:  if you thought the market was about to tank by 80%, how would you be positioning your portfolio?

Depend what market you mean. S&P500 have fallen 20%+, NASDAQ has fallen almost 30%.

About falling 80% well some good unprofitable high growth stocks have fallen more than 80% but whether the US stock market, indices such S&P500, NASDAQ composite would fall 80%, that chance is very distance. Also I have not heard any of authoritative sources, expert opinions that I have read and watched ever claim that.

Looking into the  history even during the long depression the US stock market did not fall that low. Let alone the current economy is not bad with one of the record low unemployment rate.

But everything could happen the same thing Armageddon, apocalypse could happen tomorrow. There is possibility that China attack Taiwan where the US, Russia, Iran might get involved. Russia might use Nuclear option. But we are talking about probability that event could happen.

We do not know where the bottom is, but we do know that we are currently in the bear market, so regarding your question I prefer to do a very selective DCA mainly during the "red days" in a smaller chunk for high quality blue chip stocks that are currently selling at a discount. I do DCA as low as £25.

Even in defensive sector, such as staple food, could fall significantly this day. I posted the performance of Walmart (WMT) recently where the fall was 20%+ in just two days due to missing earning expectation. I was using this opportunity to buy because I believe the odd Risk/Reward is in buyer favour.

In a few occasions I also do swing trading in a small amount of money. Keep in mind with trading you could trade in both directions of the market. Sometimes you win sometimes you lose.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

My commodities position has made almost 14% since I bought it two months ago.

I am looking to sell it this week when an attractive price becomes available and I will keep the proceeds in cash. 

This will mean that I am approximately 27% in cash.

I think you've done well to catch the end of that trend. I was sceptical it had much further to run. So seems a sensible move to lock in those gains. With a slice of your metal holdings you'll have something resembling a bonds proxy when combined with this cash, but without the interest rate sensitivity.

Yes, it should then be quite a defensive position after I sell the commodities shortly.

Gold (some physical + SGLN) = 30%
Cash = 27% (most of which I will leave in my S&S ISA ready to use as and when)
Silver (some physical + SSLN) = 18%
Gold Miners ETF (GJGB) = 15% (Disaster so far.  Only bought it recently and it's gone down 18%)
Crypto = 9% (An even bigger disaster.  Lost 2/3 of its value since October 2021.  Absolutely horrendous).

My hope would be a melt-up where my Gold Miners ETF and crypto get a boost before I reduce my exposure to them.  I went way OTT with the crypto exposure (it was 20%).

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

I am expecting the equities market to collapse.  When it does, I also expect gold/silver to go down with it.  But I expect gold/silver to come out of it better once money starts flowing there.

Having a cash allocation means that:

1)  Some of my portfolio is safeguarded when everything goes down.
2)  I have cash to take advantage of cheap gold/silver stocks (SGLN & SSLN) in anticipation of gold/silver rising sharply before equities do.
3)  If I so choose, I can buy equities at a 50%-80% discount.  My plan is to stick with gold/silver ETCs (SGLN & SSLN), but I may be tempted to buy a small bag of equities (probably VWRP) at a 50%-80% discount.

You obviously don't share my views about the financial Armageddon we are facing.  But let me ask you this theoretical question:  if you thought the market was about to tank by 80%, how would you be positioning your portfolio?

... the current economy is not bad...

Our point of difference may begin here. 

masonic

Type_45 said:

You obviously don't share my views about the financial Armageddon we are facing.  But let me ask you this theoretical question:  if you thought the market was about to tank by 80%, how would you be positioning your portfolio?

I don't know if that was an open question, but if I knew it I'd be using options and inverse ETFs to profit on the way down. If I only strongly suspected it, probably a heavy allocation to cash, some US TIPS for currency diversification, the obligatory slice of gold, and some exposure to residential property. Taking equities perhaps down to 30-40% and focused on defensives.