Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

masonic

Thrugelmir said:

masonic said:

themoomins said:

Thrugelmir said:

TonyTeacake said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Andrew Bailey says that this inflation has not been caused by monetary policy - I'm inclined to agree.

Bank of England not to blame for soaring inflation, says Bailey | This is Money

He would say that.  He's lying.

The BOE have got all their predictions wrong about inflation 

You ever tried predicting inflation?  

In the midst of the government printing and frittering over £300 billion over the last two years, along with the restricted supply of almost everything from car components to door lintels, I can say that I did confidently predict inflation being very high, and I have no supernatural powers! 

What did you predict about the £600bn printed following the global financial crisis and before the £300bn you mention? Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Inflation fears started over a decade ago. In the end it was global politics we should have been afraid of.

The QE of a decade ago didn't feed into peoples pockets. It simply kept the global financial system afloat. 

My point was more that people were just as convinced then as they were in the latest wave that there would be horrible inflationary consequences. But you are right that the last couple of years have been very different, and there are several root causes of the situation we find ourselves in today, including brexit (and a more global trend towards protectionism), massive government corruption, incompetence and fraud, an unprecedented economic slowdown in china, and now a war that has severely restricted food production and energy/fuel availability. I suppose any of those could have been taken as good predictors of inflation as opposed to the QE itself. I don't know whether replacing people's wages during furlough made them richer. Potentially them saving money during lockdown when they couldn't spend it did, but it certainly doesn't feel like the roaring 20s where people are spending with abandon and driving up prices through their exuberance.

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

My commodities position has made almost 14% since I bought it two months ago.

I am looking to sell it this week when an attractive price becomes available and I will keep the proceeds in cash. 

This will mean that I am approximately 27% in cash.

I think you've done well to catch the end of that trend. I was sceptical it had much further to run. So seems a sensible move to lock in those gains. With a slice of your metal holdings you'll have something resembling a bonds proxy when combined with this cash, but without the interest rate sensitivity.

Yes, it should then be quite a defensive position after I sell the commodities shortly.

Gold (some physical + SGLN) = 30%
Cash = 27% (most of which I will leave in my S&S ISA ready to use as and when)
Silver (some physical + SSLN) = 18%
Gold Miners ETF (GJGB) = 15% (Disaster so far.  Only bought it recently and it's gone down 18%)
Crypto = 9% (An even bigger disaster.  Lost 2/3 of its value since October 2021.  Absolutely horrendous).

My hope would be a melt-up where my Gold Miners ETF and crypto get a boost before I reduce my exposure to them.  I went way OTT with the crypto exposure (it was 20%).

Gold miners are unpredictable beasts. I can remember a long-running discussion on this with the original Ed Gasket forum account where he was pushing the position that miners are "leveraged gold", but the data quite simply does not bear this out. They are highly volatile, yes, but they are a poor tracker of the gold price. I suspect crypto has ended its free-fall and will bounce along around this level for a while. Recent events have been damaging for it. Ironically, if you took those two assets and replaced with a defensive basket of equities, I think you could have been on to a winning strategy. I'm sure there are companies that could be considered resilient even to the disastrous predictions you have made.

shortseller09

themoomins said:

The stock market seems completely untethered to reality at this point. Up and down like a yoyo.  Up 0.13 today, down 0.24 tomorrow for no rhyme or reason.  Very volatile.

That's the complete opposite of volatile, those moves mean FTSE is pretty much unchanged.

lozzy1965

themoomins said:

lozzy1965 said:

FTSE100 is up 0.13% today so I'm not worried.

The stock market seems completely untethered to reality at this point. Up and down like a yoyo.  Up 0.13 today, down 0.24 tomorrow for no rhyme or reason.  Very volatile.

Not a yoyo I would want to buy!  Barely any string!!!!

Zola.

The Nasdaq is definitely interesting, many of the companies seem to to be up and down ~ 5% each day any time I look. 

Thrugelmir

Zola. said:

The Nasdaq is definitely interesting, many of the companies seem to to be up and down ~ 5% each day any time I look. 

Mixed bag of companies. Many as yet unprofitable. 

Adyinvestment

Type_45 said:

Yes, it should then be quite a defensive position after I sell the commodities shortly.

Gold (some physical + SGLN) = 30%
Cash = 27% (most of which I will leave in my S&S ISA ready to use as and when)
Silver (some physical + SSLN) = 18%
Gold Miners ETF (GJGB) = 15% (Disaster so far.  Only bought it recently and it's gone down 18%)
Crypto = 9% (An even bigger disaster.  Lost 2/3 of its value since October 2021.  Absolutely horrendous).

My hope would be a melt-up where my Gold Miners ETF and crypto get a boost before I reduce my exposure to them.  I went way OTT with the crypto exposure (it was 20%).

Fair play for listing your holdings.

Your portfolio is probably doing better than mine 

adindas

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

My commodities position has made almost 14% since I bought it two months ago.

I am looking to sell it this week when an attractive price becomes available and I will keep the proceeds in cash. 

This will mean that I am approximately 27% in cash.

I think you've done well to catch the end of that trend. I was sceptical it had much further to run. So seems a sensible move to lock in those gains. With a slice of your metal holdings you'll have something resembling a bonds proxy when combined with this cash, but without the interest rate sensitivity.

Yes, it should then be quite a defensive position after I sell the commodities shortly.

Gold (some physical + SGLN) = 30%
Cash = 27% (most of which I will leave in my S&S ISA ready to use as and when)
Silver (some physical + SSLN) = 18%
Gold Miners ETF (GJGB) = 15% (Disaster so far.  Only bought it recently and it's gone down 18%)
Crypto = 9% (An even bigger disaster.  Lost 2/3 of its value since October 2021.  Absolutely horrendous).

My hope would be a melt-up where my Gold Miners ETF and crypto get a boost before I reduce my exposure to them.  I went way OTT with the crypto exposure (it was 20%).

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

OldMoneySaver

adindas said:

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

Those advocating trying to time the market will naturally believe that they know what's going to happen in the future, so if you believe that you know that markets will decline from here then fill your boots, but as most amateur investors don't believe they know that (to any degree of certainty), they steer clear of trying to time the market!

Out of curiosity, when do you think we'll hit the bottom, and at what sort of level, if you believe we're not there yet?

adindas

OldMoneySaver said:

adindas said:

Timing the market during the bear market make perfect sense. That is what many of the hedge fund managers are doing.

Also doing DCA will generally beat Lump-sum during the bear market.

In the past, when a person was saying this in this MSE they always got heavily attacked.

Those advocating trying to time the market will naturally believe that they know what's going to happen in the future, so if you believe that you know that markets will decline from here then fill your boots, but as most amateur investors don't believe they know that (to any degree of certainty), they steer clear of trying to time the market!

Out of curiosity, when do you think we'll hit the bottom, and at what sort of level, if you believe we're not there yet?

Read the news, International affair listen from authoritative sources there are a lot them on CNBC TV, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Wall street Journal, Seeking Alpha, CNN, Fox Business, Market watch, Forbes, etc

It is not about timing the market in PERFECTION. Noone has crystal ball, so noone get it 100% right, it is about a better probability to be on the right side.

About DCA (e.g drip feeding) beat Lump-sum people could easily see that during the bear market the market will fall more than it rises. So you will get a better probability performing better using DCA rather than blindly throwing all the money you currently have into the lion den.   

Some knowledgeable people, like hedge funds, acute traders are using technical indicators, historical statistics, fundamental analysis. True, past performance is not indicator for future performance. But you will get a better chance to be on the right side using the historical statistical data rather just blindly jumping.

True, in the long run e.g 15yr+ it does not really matter. But if you could refine your result during this particular bear market, why not. Also keep in mind not all people have that much time waiting for 15yr+.