Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

GazzaBloom

Some more perspective on market declines and recovery periods covered here:

It looks at the US Market, more explicitly the S&P500 and finds that the market ends the year with a positive gain 70% of the time when there is a correction level decline of 10% or more, but less than a 20% bear market drop. 

Where there is a bear market decline of 20% or more it only returns positive by year end 20% of the time.

Of course, it's rear view mirror stuff and every decline is different but factors such as inflation, rising interest rates and war are nothing new.

https://youtu.be/ggtZV26Kd5M

Type_45

GazzaBloom said:

Some more perspective on market declines and recovery periods covered here:

It looks at the US Market, more explicitly the S&P500 and finds that the market ends the year with a positive gain 70% of the time when there is a correction level decline of 10% or more, but less than a 20% bear market drop. 

Where there is a bear market decline of 20% or more it only returns positive by year end 20% of the time.

Of course, it's rear view mirror stuff and every decline is different but factors such as inflation, rising interest rates and war are nothing new.

https://youtu.be/ggtZV26Kd5M

Lots of things are new this time: the level of debt, the fact the west doesn't manufacture, two years of Lockdowns, globalization and the current supply chain issues, the unprecedented printing of money (40% of all USD were printed in the last two years), and the list goes on.

Type_45

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

GazzaBloom

Type_45 said:

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

My grandparent were on rations during WWII, get a grip man. The world is not ending...not yet.

Type_45

India may only export 1% of global wheat, but many countries were relying on India to take up the slack of Russia (who export 20%).

Thrugelmir

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

My grandparent were on rations during WWII, get a grip man. The world is not ending...not yet.

People were more resilent back then. Now it's all whinging and complaints. With a reliance on the nanny state to solve every problem. 

Type_45

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

My grandparent were on rations during WWII, get a grip man. The world is not ending...not yet.

People were more resilent back then. Now it's all whinging and complaints. With a reliance on the nanny state to solve every problem. 

And more people grew their own food back then, especially in rural areas.

Bobziz

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

My grandparent were on rations during WWII, get a grip man. The world is not ending...not yet.

People were more resilent back then. Now it's all whinging and complaints. With a reliance on the nanny state to solve every problem. 

And more people grew their own food back then, especially in rural areas.

I prefer the Monty Python version myself.

Type_45

My commodities ETF (CMFP) doesn't appear to include wheat. But I'm wondering if it will still be affected by what is looking like a global wheat shortage on its way.

https://www.ft.com/content/6551bb35-1de8-4918-bc53-4064f2fd4968 

Prism

Type_45 said:

My commodities ETF (CMFP) doesn't appear to include wheat. But I'm wondering if it will still be affected by what is looking like a global wheat shortage on its way.

https://www.ft.com/content/6551bb35-1de8-4918-bc53-4064f2fd4968 

That entirely depends on how the reality differs from the prediction of commodity prices.