Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

GazzaBloom

Sea_Shell said:

Can someone repost the table of all the bear market recovery times since the 1920s?   I just went looking and the threads gone!!

I "think" it was posted on that thread?

Thanks

Here you go @Sea_Shell

It's from this article:

https://www.aarp.org/money/investing/info-2022/bear-market-field-guide.html

m_c_s

While the current focus seems to be on inflationary risks, over leveraged economies and financial assets coupled with dropping consumer sentiment and negative money supply growth points to deflationary risks rising and could well become the big problem later in the year and 2023. This is a contrarian view ofcourse but one worth keeping an eye on over the coming months.

GazzaBloom

Some more perspective on market declines and recovery periods covered here:

It looks at the US Market, more explicitly the S&P500 and finds that the market ends the year with a positive gain 70% of the time when there is a correction level decline of 10% or more, but less than a 20% bear market drop. 

Where there is a bear market decline of 20% or more it only returns positive by year end 20% of the time.

Of course, it's rear view mirror stuff and every decline is different but factors such as inflation, rising interest rates and war are nothing new.

https://youtu.be/ggtZV26Kd5M

Type_45

GazzaBloom said:

Some more perspective on market declines and recovery periods covered here:

It looks at the US Market, more explicitly the S&P500 and finds that the market ends the year with a positive gain 70% of the time when there is a correction level decline of 10% or more, but less than a 20% bear market drop. 

Where there is a bear market decline of 20% or more it only returns positive by year end 20% of the time.

Of course, it's rear view mirror stuff and every decline is different but factors such as inflation, rising interest rates and war are nothing new.

https://youtu.be/ggtZV26Kd5M

Lots of things are new this time: the level of debt, the fact the west doesn't manufacture, two years of Lockdowns, globalization and the current supply chain issues, the unprecedented printing of money (40% of all USD were printed in the last two years), and the list goes on.

Type_45

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

GazzaBloom

Type_45 said:

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

My grandparent were on rations during WWII, get a grip man. The world is not ending...not yet.

Type_45

India may only export 1% of global wheat, but many countries were relying on India to take up the slack of Russia (who export 20%).

Thrugelmir

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

My grandparent were on rations during WWII, get a grip man. The world is not ending...not yet.

People were more resilent back then. Now it's all whinging and complaints. With a reliance on the nanny state to solve every problem. 

Type_45

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

My grandparent were on rations during WWII, get a grip man. The world is not ending...not yet.

People were more resilent back then. Now it's all whinging and complaints. With a reliance on the nanny state to solve every problem. 

And more people grew their own food back then, especially in rural areas.

Bobziz

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

India has just banned food exports. It only exports 1% of global wheat, however. But this will cause chaos when the markets open on Monday.

Question: how will this affect my commodities ETF which is CMFP?

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

My grandparent were on rations during WWII, get a grip man. The world is not ending...not yet.

People were more resilent back then. Now it's all whinging and complaints. With a reliance on the nanny state to solve every problem. 

And more people grew their own food back then, especially in rural areas.

I prefer the Monty Python version myself.