Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Thrugelmir

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Stargunner said:

Thrugelmir said:

grumiofoundation said:

Thrugelmir said:

fizio said:

I have been overweight in cash last few months for various reasons so will see what happens next week and hopefully make some buys... 

What's happening next week? 

I have a teacher training day on Monday. 

Not a good day to be out of constant touch with the markets. 

Only if you are a day trader. What happens in any one day is irrelevant for the majority of us on here who are invested for the long term.

Even long term investors hold cash on occassions. 

Surely not for market timing? 

No one ever went broke by banking profits once in a while. 

Falls as was the case today offer opportunities to top up. 

They do provide opportunities, but as 3% is not a huge drop, do you hold off a bit longer to see if they drop further during next week? Or invest some of your overweight cash at the 3% fall and hold some cash back for possible further falls?

3% is the aggregate movement of the tracked index. Dig deeper and individual share movements are more pronounced. 

Audaxer

Thrugelmir said:

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Stargunner said:

Thrugelmir said:

grumiofoundation said:

Thrugelmir said:

fizio said:

I have been overweight in cash last few months for various reasons so will see what happens next week and hopefully make some buys... 

What's happening next week? 

I have a teacher training day on Monday. 

Not a good day to be out of constant touch with the markets. 

Only if you are a day trader. What happens in any one day is irrelevant for the majority of us on here who are invested for the long term.

Even long term investors hold cash on occassions. 

Surely not for market timing? 

No one ever went broke by banking profits once in a while. 

Falls as was the case today offer opportunities to top up. 

They do provide opportunities, but as 3% is not a huge drop, do you hold off a bit longer to see if they drop further during next week? Or invest some of your overweight cash at the 3% fall and hold some cash back for possible further falls?

3% is the aggregate movement of the tracked index. Dig deeper and individual share movements are more pronounced. 

That's true, but I'll stick with funds and ITs. I'll leave trading in individual shares to you, as I don't have the risk tolerance for that 

Thrugelmir

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Stargunner said:

Thrugelmir said:

grumiofoundation said:

Thrugelmir said:

fizio said:

I have been overweight in cash last few months for various reasons so will see what happens next week and hopefully make some buys... 

What's happening next week? 

I have a teacher training day on Monday. 

Not a good day to be out of constant touch with the markets. 

Only if you are a day trader. What happens in any one day is irrelevant for the majority of us on here who are invested for the long term.

Even long term investors hold cash on occassions. 

Surely not for market timing? 

No one ever went broke by banking profits once in a while. 

Falls as was the case today offer opportunities to top up. 

They do provide opportunities, but as 3% is not a huge drop, do you hold off a bit longer to see if they drop further during next week? Or invest some of your overweight cash at the 3% fall and hold some cash back for possible further falls?

3% is the aggregate movement of the tracked index. Dig deeper and individual share movements are more pronounced. 

That's true, but I'll stick with funds and ITs. I'll leave trading in individual shares to you, as I don't have the risk tolerance for that 

Until markets turn south for a period of time you'll never know the extent of your own risk tolerance. Self constructed portfolios are often have more risk exposure than is realised. 

Audaxer

Thrugelmir said:

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Audaxer said:

Thrugelmir said:

Stargunner said:

Thrugelmir said:

grumiofoundation said:

Thrugelmir said:

fizio said:

I have been overweight in cash last few months for various reasons so will see what happens next week and hopefully make some buys... 

What's happening next week? 

I have a teacher training day on Monday. 

Not a good day to be out of constant touch with the markets. 

Only if you are a day trader. What happens in any one day is irrelevant for the majority of us on here who are invested for the long term.

Even long term investors hold cash on occassions. 

Surely not for market timing? 

No one ever went broke by banking profits once in a while. 

Falls as was the case today offer opportunities to top up. 

They do provide opportunities, but as 3% is not a huge drop, do you hold off a bit longer to see if they drop further during next week? Or invest some of your overweight cash at the 3% fall and hold some cash back for possible further falls?

3% is the aggregate movement of the tracked index. Dig deeper and individual share movements are more pronounced. 

That's true, but I'll stick with funds and ITs. I'll leave trading in individual shares to you, as I don't have the risk tolerance for that 

Until markets turn south for a period of time you'll never know the extent of your own risk tolerance. Self constructed portfolios are often have more risk exposure than is realised. 

I know there will be equity crashes, but I'm not overly concerned as I've been invested through previous crashes and not sold anything.  I would be concerned if I was holding individual shares.

Alexland

Alistair31 said:

I’ve about £20k looking for a home so hopefully there is some bloodletting next week. 

No sign of it yet which is a shame as we have £4k of workplace pension contributions getting invested at the end of the month tomorrow. While I don't like buying around market highs it rarely makes sense to hold money back from markets so having had the very good fortune of our ISAs being uninvested on Thursday night I just reinvested into the new investment on Friday morning taking the bird in the hand. Seems to have been the right decision so far.

cheapskate1983

Type_45 said:

How connected are national economies, and indeed the global economy, with the international stock markets? 

I've heard it said that the stock market does not reflect the economy.

Additionally, wealthy people and institutions, including pensions etc, have to put their money somewhere, so this will presumably mean that stock markets will always have investors and will ultimately keep going up.


Disclaimer: this is notwithstanding the fact that Lloyds, BlackRock and other financial institutions are buying up residential properties at a rate of knots, which perhaps doesn't bode well for the stock market going forward...

All markets are connected, even cryptocurrency. There are Bitcoin maximalists who preach that Cryptocurrency is completely separate but its NOT.

The amount of fraud that goes on in the markets is insane. There is conflict of interest every where. 

Right now there are numerous red flags in the markets. But as a Bear its my job spread FUD so here is some for free.

This post will get me banned but who cares about MSE lol. (Sheep Zone). 

1. Collateral Loan Obligations, similar to the Collateral Debt Obligations Mortgage backed securities that crashed all the markets in 2008. They are currently rotten, junk and every A rated has turned into a D rated asset. 
2. Tether USDT having Chinese Junk bonds on its balance sheet including the popular Evergrade that defaulted recently. Bitfinnex is trying to prop up Tether with Bonds from El Salvidor. Bitcoin will go to $1000. Its evitable. 
3. Bearish divergence on the weekly on all major markets showing indication that the world is about to head into a 2-3 year Bear market. 

I could go on but Im looking to short you all with zero compassion. 

Swipe

cheapskate1983 said:

I could go on but Im looking to short you all with zero compassion. 

Go short now with full margin, what are you waiting for?

tebbins

cheapskate1983 said:

Type_45 said:

How connected are national economies, and indeed the global economy, with the international stock markets? 

I've heard it said that the stock market does not reflect the economy.

Additionally, wealthy people and institutions, including pensions etc, have to put their money somewhere, so this will presumably mean that stock markets will always have investors and will ultimately keep going up.


Disclaimer: this is notwithstanding the fact that Lloyds, BlackRock and other financial institutions are buying up residential properties at a rate of knots, which perhaps doesn't bode well for the stock market going forward...

All markets are connected, even cryptocurrency. There are Bitcoin maximalists who preach that Cryptocurrency is completely separate but its NOT.

The amount of fraud that goes on in the markets is insane. There is conflict of interest every where. 

Right now there are numerous red flags in the markets. But as a Bear its my job spread FUD so here is some for free.

This post will get me banned but who cares about MSE lol. (Sheep Zone). 

1. Collateral Loan Obligations, similar to the Collateral Debt Obligations Mortgage backed securities that crashed all the markets in 2008. They are currently rotten, junk and every A rated has turned into a D rated asset. 
2. Tether USDT having Chinese Junk bonds on its balance sheet including the popular Evergrade that defaulted recently. Bitfinnex is trying to prop up Tether with Bonds from El Salvidor. Bitcoin will go to $1000. Its evitable. 
3. Bearish divergence on the weekly on all major markets showing indication that the world is about to head into a 2-3 year Bear market. 

I could go on but Im looking to short you all with zero compassion. 

The best investment I'll ever make is betting someone a tenner you've been reading Fortune & Freedom.

coastline

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

Sell the FTSE 100 at 7040 . Right or wrong there's plenty more to go at.

Just a little update not that anybody will be really bothered . Never mind I was asked so I'll highlight my system. Looking at the link which is not the best package the Slow Stochastic curled upwards as I explained around 6850-6900 to buy. Today we sit on the top of overbought region at 7110. Sell at 7110. Not perfect and could still go higher but 7040 down to 6900 and up again to 7110 is around 350 points.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

You could set the same on here if anybody is interested. Good luck everyone whatever your allocations are.

ISF.L | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350

Buy FTSE 6830 as the system goes.

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350
SEPT 20      BUY         6830         630

Sell FTSE 7230...

Set both charts with Slow Stochastic and Williams%R from the lower indicators..Good Luck everyone.

ISF.L | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

FTSE 100 Index chart, prices and performance - Investors Chronicle


DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350
SEPT 20      BUY         6830         630
OCT 15        SELL        7230        1030

Buy FTSE 7080

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350
SEPT 20      BUY         6830         630
OCT 15        SELL        7230        1030
NOV 26       BUY          7080        1180

Sell FTSE 7250.  Struggling a bit now. 

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350
SEPT 20      BUY         6830         630
OCT 15        SELL        7230        1030
NOV 26       BUY          7080        1180
DEC 17      SELL          7250        1350

lozzy1965

tranquility1 said:

Yes I stand by my view that a crash will happen this year.  Before the end of this month is the most likely time.  And I will come on here admit I got the timing wrong if it hasn't happened by January.

But even if it doesn't happen this year, this financial system has reached the end of it's life and a crash and new financial system is absolutely coming.  They may kick it down the road until the CBDCs are ready.  That would probably be their preference because that would neatly replace the current rapidly-worthless currencies.  But their hand may be forced by world events.  Notably China, which is in big trouble and the contagion from that could collapse the global economy at any point now.  

China's economy and the global economy are primed for collapse.  The only question is how controlled the collapse is.  But I think the powers that be want the collapse to be messy and painful because they then have an excuse to use the tools they want to use (CBDC and UBI) for the "greater good".  The collapse will only be painful and messy for us.  They won't feel a pinch.  They will enrich themselves even further.  They and we are not playing the same game.

OK this HAD to be my first post of the year.

Just checking, have I missed the collapse of the current world financial system over the last few days?  January is mentioned, so maybe we have another four weeks or so to go still - Or maybe THEY managed to kick it down the road!

Happy New Year EVERYONE

EDIT:  Ah, just checked, and apparently tranquility1 might be now living in their underground bunker having 'invested' in tins of beans as the only viable currency going forward:

Last Active:  28 October 2021 at 8:40PM

So no correction of the definite views they expressed is likely to be forthcoming.
There were two other doom mongers though, can't remember their names.  I wonder if they have the same world view now?