Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

shortseller09

Type_45 said:

20 years?  Cash is for this short-term period.  6-18 months.  Hopefully, after that, things will resolve.

Armageddon will be over by the end of next year.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

Discuss...

Long term trend is upwards (even before QE)? Isn't that the opposite of what you've been saying?

Type_45

shortseller09 said:

Type_45 said:

20 years?  Cash is for this short-term period.  6-18 months.  Hopefully, after that, things will resolve.

Armageddon will be over by the end of next year.

That's my understanding. Perhaps the next 24 months. After that, hopefully, the bottom of this catastrophe will be behind us. And in those 24 months fortunes will be made if you have dry powder and time it right. 

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

Discuss...

Long term trend is upwards (even before QE)? Isn't that the opposite of what you've been saying?

I've never said the long term trend isn't upwards. That's always been the case and we need to sincerely hope it remains so.

renegade1

Does anyone else notice this thread dies when the markets rally? My global equities fund is up 3% today.

GazzaBloom

renegade1 said:

Does anyone else notice this thread dies when the markets rally? My global equities fund is up 3% today.

Yes, but make no mistake, the economic mood is sour and while I don't subscribe to @Type_45 prophecy of complete oblivion I would not be surprised to see another 30% drop in equities from this point. I think we are yet to see the worst effects of inflation and supply chain shortages and the associated impact this will have on businesses, employment and economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/wall-street-layoffs-are-coming-as-deals-boom-turns-to-bust-insiders-say.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/fund-manager-investors-should-learn-from-past-bear-markets.html

I have steeled myself to continue to hoover up increasingly lower cost US index fund units each month regardless.

Nebulous2

GazzaBloom said:

renegade1 said:

Does anyone else notice this thread dies when the markets rally? My global equities fund is up 3% today.

Yes, but make no mistake, the economic mood is sour and while I don't subscribe to @Type_45 prophecy of complete oblivion I would not be surprised to see another 30% drop in equities from this point. I think we are yet to see the worst effects of inflation and supply chain shortages and the associated impact this will have on businesses, employment and economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/wall-street-layoffs-are-coming-as-deals-boom-turns-to-bust-insiders-say.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/fund-manager-investors-should-learn-from-past-bear-markets.html

I have steeled myself to continue to hoover up increasingly lower cost US index fund units each month regardless.

I watched a video clip on Bloomberg yesterday, saying this is a classic bear market rally. They said although a lot of bad news is already priced in, the markets are still expecting profits to remain where they currently are, whereas the commentator expects a substantial drop in company earnings - which they said hadn't been priced in. 

Made sense to me. Consumer resistance either because they cant afford to, or are not willing to afford to, may well mean that companies cannot pass on all their increased costs.  

GazzaBloom

This bear market is a good reminder that a retirement portfolio needs to have some resilience built in. I am still in accumulation so buying cheap equity fund units makes sense but ahead of retirement drawdown I will be looking to build up some cash and perhaps buy into a bonds fund (not sure on that one yet!) to build up a war chest of downside protection for when this happens again in the future.

lozzy1965

renegade1 said:

Does anyone else notice this thread dies when the markets rally? My global equities fund is up 3% today.

It certainly gets bumped to the top for some "Type" of reason every time there is a fall in the markets

Type_45

GazzaBloom said:

renegade1 said:

Does anyone else notice this thread dies when the markets rally? My global equities fund is up 3% today.

Yes, but make no mistake, the economic mood is sour and while I don't subscribe to @Type_45 prophecy of complete oblivion I would not be surprised to see another 30% drop in equities from this point. I think we are yet to see the worst effects of inflation and supply chain shortages and the associated impact this will have on businesses, employment and economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/wall-street-layoffs-are-coming-as-deals-boom-turns-to-bust-insiders-say.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/fund-manager-investors-should-learn-from-past-bear-markets.html

I have steeled myself to continue to hoover up increasingly lower cost US index fund units each month regardless.

Do you expect the Fed to pivot?  And if so what consequences would you expect as a result?