Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

masonic

Type_45 said:

Does it not concern anyone on here that the Fed is tightening into a credit contraction? They will be lowering rates this year. They will reverse course.

If they reverse course, I think it is more likely this will come next year. If it does then markets will respond favourably.

bd10

Not sure about lowering but credit thightening doesn't bode well: stagflation. I'll keep an eye on those UST 10ys, if and when they bounce back.

Type_45

I think the Fed will tighten this year, possibly in Q3, when inflation is at 9%-10%, and the markets will see they've lost control. This is the end game. 

Type_45

This is a great audio podcast about where we are and what may be to come:  https://www.cyclesman.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Ed-Dowd-062422.mp3 

Type_45

Discuss...

Swipe

Type_45 said:

Discuss...

Why aren't you all in short on S&P500 then?

masonic

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. There is far more at play than just the QT policy.

shortseller09

Type_45 said:

20 years?  Cash is for this short-term period.  6-18 months.  Hopefully, after that, things will resolve.

Armageddon will be over by the end of next year.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

Discuss...

Long term trend is upwards (even before QE)? Isn't that the opposite of what you've been saying?

Type_45

shortseller09 said:

Type_45 said:

20 years?  Cash is for this short-term period.  6-18 months.  Hopefully, after that, things will resolve.

Armageddon will be over by the end of next year.

That's my understanding. Perhaps the next 24 months. After that, hopefully, the bottom of this catastrophe will be behind us. And in those 24 months fortunes will be made if you have dry powder and time it right.