Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Sea_Shell

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Sri Lanka's economy collapsed this week.  And now so has the economy of Ecuador.

Like dominos.

Are you paying attention yet?

I did notice that the Sri Lankan rupee has fallen in value by nearly the magic 80%. Not a good time to be caught out holding a lot of cash...

The USD will also collapse. Other currencies too.  

The pound is already being regarded as an emerging market currency in some quarters. When are you planning to move your war chest of cash into gold or some other real asset?

I'm ~30% cash right now.  I plan on buying gold/silver when they crash along with everything else.  They won't necessarily crash, but they have before and I want to be positioned to profit from it should it happen this time.

I already have big positions in gold and silver.

So exactly what is your plan for your gold and silver when the s**t hits, and the UK  (whole world) is on its knees and the rioting and looting starts.   

How do you plan to put food on the table with your assets?   But at least you'd have some fancy cutlery.   

I've got 3 months supply of food stored.  People with gold and silver can buy things with it.  DYOR on hyper-inflation in the Weimar Republic, how gold performed, and what you could buy with a few ounces of gold.

Do you physically have your gold and silver at home in small denominations then?

Do you have a safe, and the means to defend it?  (Along with your food stash)

So your solution to prevent getting robbed of food in a global food shortage is to not have any food to begin with?

Well what's your plan once you've eaten your 3 months worth?

You seem to not realise that you'd be up the same 💩 creek as everyone else, your boat might just have a slightly smaller hole in it....but it will sink too!!

Swipe

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Sri Lanka's economy collapsed this week.  And now so has the economy of Ecuador.

Like dominos.

Are you paying attention yet?

I did notice that the Sri Lankan rupee has fallen in value by nearly the magic 80%. Not a good time to be caught out holding a lot of cash...

The USD will also collapse. Other currencies too.  

The pound is already being regarded as an emerging market currency in some quarters. When are you planning to move your war chest of cash into gold or some other real asset?

I'm ~30% cash right now.  I plan on buying gold/silver when they crash along with everything else.  They won't necessarily crash, but they have before and I want to be positioned to profit from it should it happen this time.

I already have big positions in gold and silver.

So exactly what is your plan for your gold and silver when the s**t hits, and the UK  (whole world) is on its knees and the rioting and looting starts.   

How do you plan to put food on the table with your assets?   But at least you'd have some fancy cutlery.   

I've got 3 months supply of food stored.  People with gold and silver can buy things with it.  DYOR on hyper-inflation in the Weimar Republic, how gold performed, and what you could buy with a few ounces of gold.

Do you physically have your gold and silver at home in small denominations then?

Do you have a safe, and the means to defend it?  (Along with your food stash)

So your solution to prevent getting robbed of food in a global food shortage is to not have any food to begin with?

Well what's your plan once you've eaten your 3 months worth?

You seem to not realise that you'd be up the same 💩 creek as everyone else, your boat might just have a slightly smaller hole in it....but it will sink too!!

Yes, indeed in the same boat as everyone else, only the OP is actually praying for it to happen. Some people thrive on misery and doom.

Sea_Shell

Swipe said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Sri Lanka's economy collapsed this week.  And now so has the economy of Ecuador.

Like dominos.

Are you paying attention yet?

I did notice that the Sri Lankan rupee has fallen in value by nearly the magic 80%. Not a good time to be caught out holding a lot of cash...

The USD will also collapse. Other currencies too.  

The pound is already being regarded as an emerging market currency in some quarters. When are you planning to move your war chest of cash into gold or some other real asset?

I'm ~30% cash right now.  I plan on buying gold/silver when they crash along with everything else.  They won't necessarily crash, but they have before and I want to be positioned to profit from it should it happen this time.

I already have big positions in gold and silver.

So exactly what is your plan for your gold and silver when the s**t hits, and the UK  (whole world) is on its knees and the rioting and looting starts.   

How do you plan to put food on the table with your assets?   But at least you'd have some fancy cutlery.   

I've got 3 months supply of food stored.  People with gold and silver can buy things with it.  DYOR on hyper-inflation in the Weimar Republic, how gold performed, and what you could buy with a few ounces of gold.

Do you physically have your gold and silver at home in small denominations then?

Do you have a safe, and the means to defend it?  (Along with your food stash)

So your solution to prevent getting robbed of food in a global food shortage is to not have any food to begin with?

Well what's your plan once you've eaten your 3 months worth?

You seem to not realise that you'd be up the same 💩 creek as everyone else, your boat might just have a slightly smaller hole in it....but it will sink too!!

Yes, indeed in the same boat as everyone else, only the OP is actually praying for it to happen. Some people thrive on misery and doom.

I suppose, as an exercise, it's "interesting" if one was the writer of dystopian fiction, to ponder the "what ifs".

But to actually base your financial planning around such "financial armageddon" is bordering on.....(insert own interpretation here!!)

masonic

anonmoose said:

So we all know type 45s predictions, but what are other people thinking? Is the general consensus that this is the bottom?

I have a chunk of cash to put in but I am not convinced now is the time. I am not sure this optimism has solid ground. So I am just continuing with my normal drip feeding for now.

I did put a small chunk in a little while ago but I am not comfortable doing more than that now.

It's impossible to say whether the bottom was already reached or not, but on valuation terms it looks unlikely. On forward P/E, the US market is at fair value, whereas you'd typically expect sentiment during a bear market to drive prices cheaper. On CAPE, the US market still looks expensive (as it has done for most of the 21st century). There are subsets of the market that look more attractive and those that still look relatively poorer value. If the Fed skilfully manages to taper rate rises and QT at the right time to avoid a deep recession and/or inflation begins to slow down, then things could pick up quickly, but further falls of 10%, 20% or even 30% are within the realms of possibility. Continuing the drip feed would seem a sensible way to hedge against further drops. A rapid Covid-crash style bounce that would see you miss out on cheaper pricing is pretty unlikely.

Bobziz

masonic said:

anonmoose said:

So we all know type 45s predictions, but what are other people thinking? Is the general consensus that this is the bottom?

I have a chunk of cash to put in but I am not convinced now is the time. I am not sure this optimism has solid ground. So I am just continuing with my normal drip feeding for now.

I did put a small chunk in a little while ago but I am not comfortable doing more than that now.

It's impossible to say whether the bottom was already reached or not, but on valuation terms it looks unlikely. On forward P/E, the US market is at fair value, whereas you'd typically expect sentiment during a bear market to drive prices cheaper. On CAPE, the US market still looks expensive (as it has done for most of the 21st century). There are subsets of the market that look more attractive and those that still look relatively poorer value. If the Fed skilfully manages to taper rate rises and QT at the right time to avoid a deep recession and/or inflation begins to slow down, then things could pick up quickly, but further falls of 10%, 20% or even 30% are within the realms of possibility. Continuing the drip feed would seem a sensible way to hedge against further drops. A rapid Covid-crash style bounce that would see you miss out on cheaper pricing is pretty unlikely.

Oil prices seem key with a recession reducing demand and brining down prices and inflation, but without the Ukraine situation being sorted, isn't growth limited due to refining capacity ?

Type_45

Sea_Shell said:

Swipe said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Sri Lanka's economy collapsed this week.  And now so has the economy of Ecuador.

Like dominos.

Are you paying attention yet?

I did notice that the Sri Lankan rupee has fallen in value by nearly the magic 80%. Not a good time to be caught out holding a lot of cash...

The USD will also collapse. Other currencies too.  

The pound is already being regarded as an emerging market currency in some quarters. When are you planning to move your war chest of cash into gold or some other real asset?

I'm ~30% cash right now.  I plan on buying gold/silver when they crash along with everything else.  They won't necessarily crash, but they have before and I want to be positioned to profit from it should it happen this time.

I already have big positions in gold and silver.

So exactly what is your plan for your gold and silver when the s**t hits, and the UK  (whole world) is on its knees and the rioting and looting starts.   

How do you plan to put food on the table with your assets?   But at least you'd have some fancy cutlery.   

I've got 3 months supply of food stored.  People with gold and silver can buy things with it.  DYOR on hyper-inflation in the Weimar Republic, how gold performed, and what you could buy with a few ounces of gold.

Do you physically have your gold and silver at home in small denominations then?

Do you have a safe, and the means to defend it?  (Along with your food stash)

So your solution to prevent getting robbed of food in a global food shortage is to not have any food to begin with?

Well what's your plan once you've eaten your 3 months worth?

You seem to not realise that you'd be up the same 💩 creek as everyone else, your boat might just have a slightly smaller hole in it....but it will sink too!!

Yes, indeed in the same boat as everyone else, only the OP is actually praying for it to happen. Some people thrive on misery and doom.

I suppose, as an exercise, it's "interesting" if one was the writer of dystopian fiction, to ponder the "what ifs".

But to actually base your financial planning around such "financial armageddon" is bordering on.....(insert own interpretation here!!)

Tell Sri Lankans and Ecuadorians it's "dystopian fiction".

Sea_Shell

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Swipe said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Sri Lanka's economy collapsed this week.  And now so has the economy of Ecuador.

Like dominos.

Are you paying attention yet?

I did notice that the Sri Lankan rupee has fallen in value by nearly the magic 80%. Not a good time to be caught out holding a lot of cash...

The USD will also collapse. Other currencies too.  

The pound is already being regarded as an emerging market currency in some quarters. When are you planning to move your war chest of cash into gold or some other real asset?

I'm ~30% cash right now.  I plan on buying gold/silver when they crash along with everything else.  They won't necessarily crash, but they have before and I want to be positioned to profit from it should it happen this time.

I already have big positions in gold and silver.

So exactly what is your plan for your gold and silver when the s**t hits, and the UK  (whole world) is on its knees and the rioting and looting starts.   

How do you plan to put food on the table with your assets?   But at least you'd have some fancy cutlery.   

I've got 3 months supply of food stored.  People with gold and silver can buy things with it.  DYOR on hyper-inflation in the Weimar Republic, how gold performed, and what you could buy with a few ounces of gold.

Do you physically have your gold and silver at home in small denominations then?

Do you have a safe, and the means to defend it?  (Along with your food stash)

So your solution to prevent getting robbed of food in a global food shortage is to not have any food to begin with?

Well what's your plan once you've eaten your 3 months worth?

You seem to not realise that you'd be up the same 💩 creek as everyone else, your boat might just have a slightly smaller hole in it....but it will sink too!!

Yes, indeed in the same boat as everyone else, only the OP is actually praying for it to happen. Some people thrive on misery and doom.

I suppose, as an exercise, it's "interesting" if one was the writer of dystopian fiction, to ponder the "what ifs".

But to actually base your financial planning around such "financial armageddon" is bordering on.....(insert own interpretation here!!)

Tell Sri Lankans and Ecuadorians it's "dystopian fiction".

I thought you'd said this was going to become a global issue?

I'd suggest that if the whole world went the way of those two countries, you are no more protected from the fall out than any of us...after maybe the first couple of months...but once your beans run out...then what?

Really....what then?

masonic

Bobziz said:

masonic said:

anonmoose said:

So we all know type 45s predictions, but what are other people thinking? Is the general consensus that this is the bottom?

I have a chunk of cash to put in but I am not convinced now is the time. I am not sure this optimism has solid ground. So I am just continuing with my normal drip feeding for now.

I did put a small chunk in a little while ago but I am not comfortable doing more than that now.

It's impossible to say whether the bottom was already reached or not, but on valuation terms it looks unlikely. On forward P/E, the US market is at fair value, whereas you'd typically expect sentiment during a bear market to drive prices cheaper. On CAPE, the US market still looks expensive (as it has done for most of the 21st century). There are subsets of the market that look more attractive and those that still look relatively poorer value. If the Fed skilfully manages to taper rate rises and QT at the right time to avoid a deep recession and/or inflation begins to slow down, then things could pick up quickly, but further falls of 10%, 20% or even 30% are within the realms of possibility. Continuing the drip feed would seem a sensible way to hedge against further drops. A rapid Covid-crash style bounce that would see you miss out on cheaper pricing is pretty unlikely.

Oil prices seem key with a recession reducing demand and brining down prices and inflation, but without the Ukraine situation being sorted, isn't growth limited due to refining capacity ?

It's been a reality for quite some time that more and more capital is required to maintain oil supply, and those companies that are unable to reduce their energy intensity or transition to alternatives are not going to thrive. Perhaps recent events have accelerated things, but the writing has been on the wall for some time. The Ukraine situation is obviously driving food inflation primarily, and all that can be done there is to price people out of existence. In both cases, prices will find a level once a sufficient number have been priced out, though the consequences in the latter case are far more severe.

Linton

Bobziz said:

masonic said:

anonmoose said:

So we all know type 45s predictions, but what are other people thinking? Is the general consensus that this is the bottom?

I have a chunk of cash to put in but I am not convinced now is the time. I am not sure this optimism has solid ground. So I am just continuing with my normal drip feeding for now.

I did put a small chunk in a little while ago but I am not comfortable doing more than that now.

It's impossible to say whether the bottom was already reached or not, but on valuation terms it looks unlikely. On forward P/E, the US market is at fair value, whereas you'd typically expect sentiment during a bear market to drive prices cheaper. On CAPE, the US market still looks expensive (as it has done for most of the 21st century). There are subsets of the market that look more attractive and those that still look relatively poorer value. If the Fed skilfully manages to taper rate rises and QT at the right time to avoid a deep recession and/or inflation begins to slow down, then things could pick up quickly, but further falls of 10%, 20% or even 30% are within the realms of possibility. Continuing the drip feed would seem a sensible way to hedge against further drops. A rapid Covid-crash style bounce that would see you miss out on cheaper pricing is pretty unlikely.

Oil prices seem key with a recession reducing demand and brining down prices and inflation, but without the Ukraine situation being sorted, isn't growth limited due to refining capacity ?

It is not just oil.  There are still major problems with global Just In Time Manufacturing still not working smoothly.  The car we wanted to buy was on 1 year's delivery because the wiring loom was manufactured in the Ukraine.  Supply problems lead to inflation, in this case rising used car prices.

coastline

A little chart from the Spanish Flu pandemic. The same boom and then some sectors retraced the lot a few years later. Similar ? Note the Autos as it's just been mentioned . Autos gave everything back but Auto Accessory didn't. AA continued higher as old cars needed repairing.

EpI45JdU0AA5hW2 (365×838) (twimg.com)

Valuations can go lower but it'll be a buying opportunity . Note the UK on a forward P/E of 9.8.

MSCI Forward P/Es (yardeni.com)

Great link for free data..

Yardeni Research

Although the US markets are washed out they are still only fairly valued. 

FU0WwHFWUAE82VK (900×566) (twimg.com)

Is it short term or real bear market ?

FWBkkuHXgAI4T6- (649×401) (twimg.com)

FWBjt4sWIAAo2Qh (652×404) (twimg.com)