Export tariffs - FIT, SEG, Octopus Outgoing Agile

Solarchaser

This isn't what you asked, but just to comment on the edf metered export part.
Edf is my fit provider, they were also my energy provider and fitted smart meters around 3 years ago iirc, and I'm still on deemed export.

Got the smart meters changed by octopus at the end of October, again still on deemed.

Screwdriva

If you're chasing the best SEG tariff, Bulb energy has a slightly higher rate for their customers, and I'm hearing rumblings from my contact on their solar team that their customers are asking them to raise it further, which may happen.

QrizB

I realsie now that my link to Outging Agile prices didn't appear in the initial post, apologies. It's here now (and here too). Here's a screenshot from the last seven days:

You can see that, excepting two night-time periods where there was a lot of wind generation, Outgoing Agile has been above the 5.5p/kWh of Outgoing during the period (and the profile has bee broadly similar when I've checked previously, this week isn't exceptional). And from 1600-1900 (when my system is still generating, at least during the 6 sunnier months) the export price is almost triple that.

I'm wondering why no-one here seems keen on this paerticular tariff? Is it because those of you with Octopus are all on Go, and so aren't eligible for Outgoing Agile too?

Screwdriva

QrizB said:

I realsie now that my link to Outging Agile prices didn't appear in the initial post, apologies. It's here now (and here too). Here's a screenshot from the last seven days:

You can see that, excepting two night-time periods where there was a lot of wind generation, Outgoing Agile has been above the 5.5p/kWh of Outgoing during the period (and the profile has bee broadly similar when I've checked previously, this week isn't exceptional). And from 1600-1900 (when my system is still generating, at least during the 6 sunnier months) the export price is almost triple that.

I'm wondering why no-one here seems keen on this paerticular tariff? Is it because those of you with Octopus are all on Go, and so aren't eligible for Outgoing Agile too?

Fascinating. Would you be able to share a similar image for a longer duration. I'd like to know what your average rate was for the past 6/12/18 months if possible?

QrizB

Screwdriva said:

Fascinating. Would you be able to share a similar image for a longer duration. I'd like to know what your average rate was for the past 6/12/18 months if possible?

Sorry, I'm not with them, that's a chart from this linked webpage. It doesn't give the same detail over a longer period but there is a chart on the page with max/ave/min unit prices for the past year, and another showing 365-day average prices for each 30-minute slot during the day.

The average price has been over 5p/unit since August last year, and I suspect it's pulled down by low overnight prices (when PV isn't generating anyway).

The max price hasn't fallen below 12p, and the minimum has mostly been above 4p (occasionally it slumps to near-zero when there's an excess of wind). Back in January when the electricity spot price was going crazy, you could have earned £1.49 per unit if you had anything to sell. At that price it would have been worth firing up the generator*.

*I kid, it's not grid-tied.

QrizB

PS: historical Outgoing Agile prices are available here:
https://www.energy-stats.uk/download-historical-pricing-data/
I'm going to see if I can get anything useful out of them (I'm sure the data is there but my Excel skills are rusty).

QrizB

OK I've put together a very crude model using all the Octopus Outgoing Agile (OOA) data on that site. I've taken PVGIS data for 1kWp at my location, assuming it's all exported. I have divided the monthly PVGIS output numbers by the number of days in the month (ignoring Feb 29) to give an average daily output. I've then taken the average daily OOA price between 0600 and 2000 as being the effective OOA export rate on that day.

1kWp at my location, optimised for tilt and azimuth, generates 997kWh per year in PVGIS. At a 5.5p SEG that's £54.835 per year.

• Over the period 16/05/2019 to today, a 5.5p SEG would have yielded £111.42.
• On OOA, over the same period the modelled yield is £136.36 (a 22% increase) equivalent to a 6.73p SEG.

This is a crude model and could be improved by modelling a daily generation profile rather than weighting eg. the 0600-0630 and 1330-1400 OOA rates equally. But that's more work than I'm prepared to do on a Sunday afternoon!

Screwdriva

Amazing! Thanks very much for that. I wonder if Agile tariff's pre-2021 are worth factoring into that model? That said, even a 20+% upside is impressive. 

More worryingly, it would appear I have a 1st generation smart meter. (Model # Aclara SGC 1311) I cannot tell if this is a secured 1st generation smart metre and Google isn't being helpful, which means I may not be eligible for Outgoing Agile even if I do switch over :-/

QrizB

I'm with EDF until at least September but I'm wondering what to do after that.

• I'm currently on FIT "deemed export" at 3.95p/kWh and typically generate ~2500 kWh/yr. My FIT export payments are therefore £49/yr. I think I only use around 1000kWh/yr of my own energy and export the remaining 1500kWh/yr but that's a guess based on my pre-solar annual consumption vs. now.
• I import around 2500kWh/yr (which is an unlikely coincidence I know).
  

You can't currently have both Octopus Go and OOA    so looking solely at Octopus tariffs and making some guesses for future Agile tariffs, the options are:

1. Import on Go (2500 x 15.59 + 25 x 365), export on Outgoing (1500 x 5.5) total £398; or
2. Import on Fixed (2500 x 18.62 + 24.11 x 365), export on Outgoing Agile (1500 x 7) total £448
3. Import on Agile avoiding evening peak (2500 x 15 + 21 x 365), export on Outgoing Agile (1500 x 7) total £347

So if I feel lucky (punk) it seems there's a small advantage in double-Agile but it's obviously a gamble. Although as both export and import are tracking wholesale prices, the main risk is of high winter prices (where my generation won't counter them).

Or I could switch to eg. Symbio (yes I know, I've read the thread), get my electricity for £350 and still receive the £49/yr FIT deemed export payment. Hmm.

Exiled_Tyke

QrizB said:

I'm with EDF until at least September but I'm wondering what to do after that.

• I'm currently on FIT "deemed export" at 3.95p/kWh and typically generate ~2500 kWh/yr. My FIT export payments are therefore £49/yr. I think I only use around 1000kWh/yr of my own energy and export the remaining 1500kWh/yr but that's a guess based on my pre-solar annual consumption vs. now.
• I import around 2500kWh/yr (which is an unlikely coincidence I know).
  

You can't currently have both Octopus Go and OOA    so looking solely at Octopus tariffs and making some guesses for future Agile tariffs, the options are:

1. Import on Go (2500 x 15.59 + 25 x 365), export on Outgoing (1500 x 5.5) total £398; or
2. Import on Fixed (2500 x 18.62 + 24.11 x 365), export on Outgoing Agile (1500 x 7) total £448
3. Import on Agile avoiding evening peak (2500 x 15 + 21 x 365), export on Outgoing Agile (1500 x 7) total £347

So if I feel lucky (punk) it seems there's a small advantage in double-Agile but it's obviously a gamble. Although as both export and import are tracking wholesale prices, the main risk is of high winter prices (where my generation won't counter them).

Or I could switch to eg. Symbio (yes I know, I've read the thread), get my electricity for £350 and still receive the £49/yr FIT deemed export payment. Hmm.

Can't really answer that but...

1. I prefer the certainty of Go to Agile.  I'm guessing that the more electricity is tied up in pre-priced contracts the more volatile the spots rates will become.  Few people seem to have done well out of Agile recently. Plus with Go you don't have to keep monitoring daily rates in an attempt to make the cheapest decisions - the savings are just not worth the hassle. 
2. Without even looking at export rates I'm currently getting a lot of benefit from setting the washing machine and dishwasher to start during the night (when there isn't enough daytime electricity that is) and this should be more beneficial in winter when there's no chance of my PV producing enough to run the heavy appliances.