Octopus Tracker

fuelcrusher

Something doesn't add up for me when calculating the gas price.
Octopus calculation for North Scotland, Gas unit charge: (W * 0.03604) + 1.1628 p per kWh, where W is day ahead price in p/therm.

Cheapest I've had while on the tracker was 6th October which was 3.61p. According to tradingeconomics the p/therm was around 89p so the tracker charge should have been around 4.37p, a lot more than the 3.61p.

Currently the day ahead price is around 68p so I should be seeing prices around 3.61p, yet the current tracker price is hovering around the 4p mark.

All I can think is that octopus take the day ahead price from Marex Spectron which is I believe a professional subscription service whereas tradingeconomics is a current pricing indicator. Hence they will no doubt be different, but they'd have to be VERY different to account for the discrepancy seen in the examples above.

Anybody have a better idea how this is calculated?

Okay. To update this myself. I just checked back on a market data email from 5th October for the day ahead (6th Oct). This email stated day ahead gas price of 72p/therm. On the tradingeconomics site which I believe many of us refer to, it shows prices around 89p. A massive difference and the 72p comes MUCH closer to adding up to octopus's price.

For further interest the day ahead price on this mornings email was 73.5p so the octopus price should be around 3.82p. We'll see when it's announced shortly. Oh that's it out now 3.83p, so very close.

Conclusion: tradingeconomics site isn't much good to predict octopus price.

northernstar007

but if the market price shoots up overnight i bet tracker price would follow suit, so i wouldnt say the market price is not to be looked at for a good guide

fuelcrusher

northernstar007 said:

but if the market price shoots up overnight i bet tracker price would follow suit, so i wouldnt say the market price is not to be looked at for a good guide

No I don't think it would. The day ahead price for gas is a declared price that market participants use for there calculation on entering the next day auctions. It would be extremely difficult to do this with constantly varying price. Octopus state they use the 'day-ahead' price published on Marex.

fuelcrusher

Just for interest, where electricity is concerned the current day auction results are used. Whereby the average of the days half hourly periods is used for octopus's calculation. On my daily email this is known as the Baseload price (BL) ie, average price for a generator running through the full day without having to 'start-up'. This BL price ALWAYS tallies up directly with the next day octopus price.

barker77

fuelcrusher said:

Just for interest, where electricity is concerned the current day auction results are used. Whereby the average of the days half hourly periods is used for octopus's calculation. On my daily email this is known as the Baseload price (BL) ie, average price for a generator running through the full day without having to 'start-up'. This BL price ALWAYS tallies up directly with the next day octopus price.

Have you got a link to where this would be viewable please? 

QrizB

fuelcrusher said:

Conclusion: tradingeconomics site isn't much good to predict octopus price.

The chart at trading economics is the price for next month delivery, not next day.

It has very little relevance to the Tracker day-ahead price.

fuelcrusher

barker77 said:

fuelcrusher said:

Just for interest, where electricity is concerned the current day auction results are used. Whereby the average of the days half hourly periods is used for octopus's calculation. On my daily email this is known as the Baseload price (BL) ie, average price for a generator running through the full day without having to 'start-up'. This BL price ALWAYS tallies up directly with the next day octopus price.

Have you got a link to where this would be viewable please? 

I've found the day ahead price here https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/GB/Auction-prices/UK/Daily/?view=table although I don't know when it gets updated as I've never checked. My email usually comes in just after 10:00 and the octopus tracker price is usually published well within the hour so there's no real use in knowing this data slightly earlier.

fuelcrusher

QrizB said:

fuelcrusher said:

Conclusion: tradingeconomics site isn't much good to predict octopus price.

The chart at trading economics is the price for next month delivery, not next day.

It has very little relevance to the Tracker day-ahead price.

I agree, now that I've spent a few minutes looking into it. However lots of posts in this thread refer to it as a close indicator. If someone could find a link to the actual day ahead gas figure then that'd be useful. I'll try remember to post the figure I see just after 10:00.

pfpf

QrizB said:

fuelcrusher said:

Conclusion: tradingeconomics site isn't much good to predict octopus price.

The chart at trading economics is the price for next month delivery, not next day.

It has very little relevance to the Tracker day-ahead price.

just to make it clear for me. that Commodities landing page on TE that's updating all the time, that's not the day ahead price? that's what iv'e always looked at and so many times on here it's been referred to.

thanks.

pfpf

and looking at that nordpool link. the day ahead was much cheaper end December / start of January but the unit price to us was higher.
just when i think iv'e sort of understood something in my head another curve ball is thrown