Octopus Tracker

Qyburn

Colder weathercoming in the next few days, around here at least. They're forecasting overnight temperatures down to -5 or -6 Deg.C depending on the forecaster, from tonight until early next week. 

Telegraph_Sam

MultiFuelBurner said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

Even if the short term averages and forecasts look high / unfavourable, would that nomally be a reason to switch tariffs, or grin and bear it?

As explained in the post many times that's a personal choice and you have to know what you have saved since you joined tracker and what your average p  per kWh is and use the links for forecasting what prices may be in the next 14 days.

It really is a do it yourself no decision is right for everyone and everyone's risk appetite is different.

I go along with that given the limits in information. My point is that even if my 14 day forecast was correct I would not use this (alone) to decide on whether or not to stay on Tracker.

MultiFuelBurner

Telegraph_Sam said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

Even if the short term averages and forecasts look high / unfavourable, would that nomally be a reason to switch tariffs, or grin and bear it?

As explained in the post many times that's a personal choice and you have to know what you have saved since you joined tracker and what your average p  per kWh is and use the links for forecasting what prices may be in the next 14 days.

It really is a do it yourself no decision is right for everyone and everyone's risk appetite is different.

I go along with that given the limits in information. My point is that even if my 14 day forecast was correct I would not use this (alone) to decide on whether or not to stay on Tracker.

Some aren't suited to a tariff like tracker. Have you considered perhaps you are one of those 

No one was saying just use a 14 day forecast look bac over your monthly savings since joining, look further back at historic tracker prices and look forward the 14 days. Armed with as much knowledge as you can be and don't forget to enjoy the ride lol.

Chrysalis

pfpf said:

la531983 said:

If it helps,wholesale gas (and remember gas is currently generating a huge percentage of UK electric, currently 57%) is at its lowest cost since 9th Oct, and is generally on a downward trajectory.

....and why, entering such a cold spell? iv'e given up pretending to have learnt/understand anything about energy prices. i'd be rubbish "playing the markets". 

More wind.  Last winter was (on average) cheaper than the summer preceding it.

Of course it doesnt mean it will be the same this winter, but it does show that it doesnt mean its all going to sustain high prices when things get cold.  However last winter we did have a brief period of higher prices. (smothered by the nice Octopus caps and EPG subsidies at the time).

Telegraph_Sam

MultiFuelBurner said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

Even if the short term averages and forecasts look high / unfavourable, would that nomally be a reason to switch tariffs, or grin and bear it?

As explained in the post many times that's a personal choice and you have to know what you have saved since you joined tracker and what your average p  per kWh is and use the links for forecasting what prices may be in the next 14 days.

It really is a do it yourself no decision is right for everyone and everyone's risk appetite is different.

I go along with that given the limits in information. My point is that even if my 14 day forecast was correct I would not use this (alone) to decide on whether or not to stay on Tracker.

Some aren't suited to a tariff like tracker. Have you considered perhaps you are one of those 

No one was saying just use a 14 day forecast look bac over your monthly savings since joining, look further back at historic tracker prices and look forward the 14 days. Armed with as much knowledge as you can be and don't forget to enjoy the ride lol.

Doing all that has not motivated me so far to switch from Tracker. From what I have been able to "research" (less than others) this strikes me as a rational risk : reward balance compared with other ToU tariffs. Until something fundamental changes ..
Best way of assessing the historical "monthly savings" that you refer to? I don't know if mysmartenergy can offer this.

Pat38493

pfpf said:

la531983 said:

If it helps,wholesale gas (and remember gas is currently generating a huge percentage of UK electric, currently 57%) is at its lowest cost since 9th Oct, and is generally on a downward trajectory.

....and why, entering such a cold spell? iv'e given up pretending to have learnt/understand anything about energy prices. i'd be rubbish "playing the markets". 

From the comments I've seen on other forums, the gas price is not too bad because the gas storage is still looking good for this winter.  The electric price is going up more than gas because of capacity constraints in generation, some of which are due to unplanned outage in a hydroelectric station plus delay of planned outage of nuclear coming back into operation, plus that the weather forecast for next week has a lot of uncertainty and may result in the continuation of this calm, cold, weather.

Spoonie_Turtle

Telegraph_Sam said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

Even if the short term averages and forecasts look high / unfavourable, would that nomally be a reason to switch tariffs, or grin and bear it?

As explained in the post many times that's a personal choice and you have to know what you have saved since you joined tracker and what your average p  per kWh is and use the links for forecasting what prices may be in the next 14 days.

It really is a do it yourself no decision is right for everyone and everyone's risk appetite is different.

I go along with that given the limits in information. My point is that even if my 14 day forecast was correct I would not use this (alone) to decide on whether or not to stay on Tracker.

Some aren't suited to a tariff like tracker. Have you considered perhaps you are one of those 

No one was saying just use a 14 day forecast look bac over your monthly savings since joining, look further back at historic tracker prices and look forward the 14 days. Armed with as much knowledge as you can be and don't forget to enjoy the ride lol.

Doing all that has not motivated me so far to switch from Tracker. From what I have been able to "research" (less than others) this strikes me as a rational risk : reward balance compared with other ToU tariffs. Until something fundamental changes ..
Best way of assessing the historical "monthly savings" that you refer to? I don't know if mysmartenergy can offer this.

Your own spreadsheet of what you've saved.  I.e. the difference between how much you've paid on Tracker and how much it would have cost of the SVT.

QrizB

Telegraph_Sam said:

QrizB said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

I risk being deliberately provative lol but does it make sense to take account of these relatively minor price movements on Tracker? Would not being on Agile make more sense?

We're currently having the sort of energy supply (ie. weather) where Tracker is cheaper than Agile for most of the day. See the charts at energy-stats.uk for evidence.

And this is why I chose Go!⁷

I have tended to neglect Go but visually on the basis of the graphs you have submitted it would seem that Tracker has outperformed both Agile and Go, or have I missed something?

You've forgotten that I load shift 90% of my energy use to the 4 hour cheap rate period.

Typically my average kWh cost is around 12p.

Slinky

We're on Tracker but my Solis app shows the Agile rates for info.  Most of the daytime tomorrow is at the near 35p rate apart from early afternoon.  Lowest at 1.30pm  at over 31p. Ouch!

Telegraph_Sam

QrizB said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

QrizB said:

Telegraph_Sam said:

I risk being deliberately provative lol but does it make sense to take account of these relatively minor price movements on Tracker? Would not being on Agile make more sense?

We're currently having the sort of energy supply (ie. weather) where Tracker is cheaper than Agile for most of the day. See the charts at energy-stats.uk for evidence.

And this is why I chose Go!⁷

I have tended to neglect Go but visually on the basis of the graphs you have submitted it would seem that Tracker has outperformed both Agile and Go, or have I missed something?

You've forgotten that I load shift 90% of my energy use to the 4 hour cheap rate period.

Typically my average kWh cost is around 12p.

I had forgotten ...  and must refresh my understanding of Agile vs Go as per Octopus website. It just confirms that stats have to be interpreted and horses for courses applied. It would seem that for little or no significant load shift one could do worse than Tracker.