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MultiFuelBurner

What may be termed a "perfect storm" for high energy prices. (Hopefully not to be repeated)

bristolleedsfan

Pat38493 said:

Slinky said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Slinky said:

Still looking seriously at swapping to Tracker, just had a look back at the past 365 days wholesale prices.  What caused the huge spike last December?

The Russian invasion and subsequent panic that ensued for energy purchasing.

Something that would be solved now with the way everyone avoids buying anything from Russia unless absolutely necessary.

The Russian invasion was in February 2022. Why would that cause a spike in December 2022?

There was a lot of concern going into the winter that gas supplies in Europe would not last through the winter.  Pipelines were being sabotaged by either Ukraine or Russia depending who you believe and there was concern that supplies could be further interrupted.  This was combined with forecast of an extreme cold snap.

That was the reason day ahead prices went sky high during August 2022.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/13/energy/europe-energy-crisis-winter-2023/index.html   Thu October 13, 2022

"Europe has enough energy to survive the winter. Next year might be different"

"Gas storage facilities are 91% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, well exceeding the 80% target EU officials set for countries to reach by November" 

MultiFuelBurner

The effect of Russia went deep into 2022 with gas prices staying 3 times higher, that combined with a cold snap and the demand on energy across Europe led to what I said,  the perfect storm.

For anyone to suggest the Russian invasion did not affect prices through the whole of 2022 and indeed into 2023 is plainly wrong but my signature deals with that.

https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2023/the-cost-of-gas-since-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine

Spoonie_Turtle

MultiFuelBurner said:

The effect of Russia went deep into 2022 with gas prices staying 3 times higher, that combined with a cold snap and the demand on energy across Europe led to what I said,  the perfect storm.

For anyone to suggest the Russian invasion did not affect prices through the whole of 2022 and indeed into 2023 is plainly wrong but my signature deals with that.

https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2023/the-cost-of-gas-since-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine

Neatly demonstrated by the fact we needed the EPG to bring down customer prices to tolerable levels during Oct 22 - March 23.

Telegraph_Sam

$64 K question: All things considered how do you compare the situation now with 12 months ago? "You" includes MSE crystal balls.

debitcardmayhem

Telegraph_Sam said:

$64 K question: All things considered how do you compare the situation now with 12 months ago? "You" includes MSE crystal balls.

Mr crystal balls here, this year there will be a white Christmas, turkey prices at their low point as are Brussels Sprouts, ergo lot of cooking prices will soar until 27 dec, or maybe not.🦃

Robgmun

Pat38493 said:

Slinky said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Slinky said:

Still looking seriously at swapping to Tracker, just had a look back at the past 365 days wholesale prices.  What caused the huge spike last December?

The Russian invasion and subsequent panic that ensued for energy purchasing.

Something that would be solved now with the way everyone avoids buying anything from Russia unless absolutely necessary.

The Russian invasion was in February 2022. Why would that cause a spike in December 2022?

There was a lot of concern going into the winter that gas supplies in Europe would not last through the winter.  Pipelines were being sabotaged by either Ukraine or Russia depending who you believe and there was concern that supplies could be further interrupted.  This was combined with forecast of an extreme cold snap.

This is the actual reason, nothing to do with "snow" or "wind" BS

This is the first and only time it will happen. Can't believe people still can't get their heads around it, it's like they have goldfish memories. It's the reason the government gave away £400 to everyone and the price cap went insanely high and the government had to step in

bristolleedsfan

Robgmun said:

Pat38493 said:

Slinky said:

MultiFuelBurner said:

Slinky said:

Still looking seriously at swapping to Tracker, just had a look back at the past 365 days wholesale prices.  What caused the huge spike last December?

The Russian invasion and subsequent panic that ensued for energy purchasing.

Something that would be solved now with the way everyone avoids buying anything from Russia unless absolutely necessary.

The Russian invasion was in February 2022. Why would that cause a spike in December 2022?

There was a lot of concern going into the winter that gas supplies in Europe would not last through the winter.  Pipelines were being sabotaged by either Ukraine or Russia depending who you believe and there was concern that supplies could be further interrupted.  This was combined with forecast of an extreme cold snap.

This is the actual reason, nothing to do with "snow" or "wind" BS

The question that started this discussion was specifically "What caused the huge spike last December?" not a question about the period October 2022 - March 2023 or the year 2022.

As previously posted   Sun 11 Dec 2022 16.45 GMT  -   https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/11/uk-power-prices-hit-record-high-amid-cold-snap-and-lack-of-wind-power

"UK power prices hit record high amid cold snap and lack of wind power

Severely cold weather has come with low wind speeds, creating perfect storm to drive wholesale costs up"

Slinky

Yes that was why I asked the question about the December spike. If it was something that was likely to happen again because of some seasonal sort of run-up-to-Christmas surge in power usage, I'd be foolish to switch to Tracker now with the likelihood of getting that spike again this year just after switching. I would leave it to January. As it's been explained as being linked to weather circumstances at that time, which could happen again at any time, or not, I'll probably just switch and take my chances.

Telegraph_Sam

I console myself with the thought that if there is a December spike from the combination of the 3 causes in our discussion, then I should have the following 12 months in which to claw back the deficit. Reasoning not perfect but hopefully enough to pass inspection.