Octopus Tracker

MultiFuelBurner

Slinky said:

Yes that was why I asked the question about the December spike. If it was something that was likely to happen again because of some seasonal sort of run-up-to-Christmas surge in power usage, I'd be foolish to switch to Tracker now with the likelihood of getting that spike again this year just after switching. I would leave it to January. As it's been explained as being linked to weather circumstances at that time, which could happen again at any time, or not, I'll probably just switch and take my chances.

It wasn't just weather as has also been explained but if that's what you take from.the replies then that is your prerogative.

And no it's not likely to spike to those levels of last year imo. The way the whole world buys gas and contingencies has changed. It may spike above price cap levels but anyone not on tracker doesn't realise it's about averaging the whole month or the whole time on tracker.

For example if you joined now you might get a whole month averaging below 5pkWh for gas and 19p kWh for electricity (as well as lower standing charges)

So if a spike comes along for a few days or longer you have a whole month of savings to calculate in your overall average. 

If I were you I would make the jump but it's a purely personal choice and I can understand last year putting you off especially as we are supposedly in a beast from the east year.

bristolleedsfan

Slinky said:

Yes that was why I asked the question about the December spike. If it was something that was likely to happen again because of some seasonal sort of run-up-to-Christmas surge in power usage, I'd be foolish to switch to Tracker now with the likelihood of getting that spike again this year just after switching. I would leave it to January. As it's been explained as being linked to weather circumstances at that time, which could happen again at any time, or not, I'll probably just switch and take my chances.

Similar weather referred to in linked Guardian article  during any/all of the winter months would most likely cause a spike in tracker prices albeit unlikely to reach the same level as during December 2022. 

Telegraph_Sam

Not strictly this forum but with the prospect of another Beast (?) has anyone been contacted by Octopus re home insulation grants yet? This post should no doubt be put somewhere else.

MultiFuelBurner

Cheap electricity day incoming Tomorrow 16.6p kWh for our region estimated

@Slinky see you have to think about the very cheap days like tomorrow running tumble dryer washing etc

Robgmun

Slinky said:

Yes that was why I asked the question about the December spike. If it was something that was likely to happen again because of some seasonal sort of run-up-to-Christmas surge in power usage, I'd be foolish to switch to Tracker now with the likelihood of getting that spike again this year just after switching. I would leave it to January. As it's been explained as being linked to weather circumstances at that time, which could happen again at any time, or not, I'll probably just switch and take my chances.

Never happened before, every December before 2022 was flat as the rest of the year. And I think it'll be pretty much flat this year. If theirs a spike, it would be brief and barely over the SVR

bristolleedsfan

Slinky said:

Yes that was why I asked the question about the December spike. If it was something that was likely to happen again because of some seasonal sort of run-up-to-Christmas surge in power usage, I'd be foolish to switch to Tracker now with the likelihood of getting that spike again this year just after switching. I would leave it to January. As it's been explained as being linked to weather circumstances at that time, which could happen again at any time, or not, I'll probably just switch and take my chances.

Going back a bit further, from memory without looking up charts and graphs.

Wholesale rates ultra low many months during 2020.

Period of particularly cold weather January 2021, Tracker electricity spiked at around 32p ish kWh, SVR energy capped tariff was approx 18p kWh. 

BellaBlondykeTheThird

I agree with the averaging and use gastracker.uk as I am a contributor to the statistics there and can see exactly what I have saved since joining tracker I don't even have to keep my own spreadsheet.

Tracker isn't for everyone. They will have been spooked last year and want a fix and there's nothing wrong with that.

QrizB

Robgmun said:

Pat38493 said:

There was a lot of concern going into the winter that gas supplies in Europe would not last through the winter.  Pipelines were being sabotaged by either Ukraine or Russia depending who you believe and there was concern that supplies could be further interrupted.  This was combined with forecast of an extreme cold snap.

This is the actual reason, nothing to do with "snow" or "wind" BS

This is the first and only time it will happen.

That's a very bold statement. No-one expected it to happen until it did. No one, not the experts and definitely not random internet forum users, can rule out other low-probability but high-consequence events causing another price surge.

Slinky

Well for what it's worth, I've asked to switch to Tracker for electric. I'd previously fixed gas, don't think it's worth switching out with the £75 exit fee.

Qyburn

Its not the first December cold snap either. Serious cold is more likely in January or February, but the year Amazon stopped deliveries to Scotland wasn't that long ago.