Octopus Tracker

t0rt0ise

I'm going to work out how much I've saved this year and if I find I've paid it all back in higher charges over the next three months, I'll change tariff. I can't imagine that happening but we will see.

Spoonie_Turtle

t0rt0ise said:

I'm going to work out how much I've saved this year and if I find I've paid it all back in higher charges over the next three months, I'll change tariff. I can't imagine that happening but we will see.

Yep, that's my plan B.  Plan C is dropping onto Flexible.  But at £788 savings so far, even though we're high users it'd take … well, in the absolute worst case scenario of sitting at the 100p cap coinciding with a Beast from the East round 2, probably a month to wipe those savings out.  

[Okay that's actually terrifying, that a month's electricity could theoretically cost £1,000.  But now I know.]
If it sat at around 65p/kWh during winter that would take at least two months to wipe out the year's savings.

And if that were to happen, by then we'd have saved even more already because the £788 is only to the end of August, so this month's savings and probably October's at least added on would take longer to wipe out.

This is really useful, to have concrete numbers in preparation, ready to inform rational decisions rather than panic at potentially high unit rates.  Thanks for asking the question MFB!

[Deleted User]

So rather than the constant posts about ‘should I fix’, can we expect pages of posts about future Tracker prices? When I last polished my crystal ball, it was still rather misty. FWiW, I take a long term view on price swings. If Tracker goes up and stays up, then Capped prices will also rise - albeit, with a few months delay.

la531983

As an aside, pricing tomorrow is down in the low teens again (cheaper than it went midweek). Save your laundry. 

vic_sf49

[Deleted User] said:

So rather than the constant posts about ‘should I fix’, can we expect pages of posts about future Tracker prices? When I last polished my crystal ball, it was still rather misty. FWiW, I take a long term view on price swings. If Tracker goes up and stays up, then Capped prices will also rise - albeit, with a few months delay.

That's a good point ref the SVR rate rising, even if it's not as immediate as Tracker.

At the moment, I'd be tempted to stay on Tracker (G+E), as I have solar panels (on ye olde FIT) but no battery, so my other/best options would be Flex/SVR or a fix. 

masonic

No doubt SVR would follow Tracker upward, but the lag could be a few months. As over 60% of my annual usage is between Nov-Feb inclusive, I'd be a lot more sensitive to very high prices during those months, even if it cost me later. I'm hoping that the historic data bears out that peaks are relatively short lived.

mmmmikey

masonic said:

No doubt SVR would follow Tracker upward, but the lag could be a few months. As over 60% of my annual usage is between Nov-Feb inclusive, I'd be a lot more sensitive to very high prices during those months, even if it cost me later. I'm hoping that the historic data bears out that peaks are relatively short lived.

Much the same thinking here. I've given up polishing my crystal ball and put all my effort into monitoring the here and now, with a fully automated process in place to alert me if Agile becomes more expensive than Tracker or selected other tariffs. Agile has a worthwhile but not huge price advantage over Tracker for me at the moment and there's a big gap between Agile/Tracker and anything else. Maybe not much of a plan, but my thinking is that because the future is so unpredicatble it's best just to keep an eye on things and review the situation if Agile prices catch up with SVR etc.

Just one thought on switching to a fixed tariff, such as some of the Octopus smart TOU tariffs (like Cosy, I think?). Although the rates are fixed if you're already on the tariff there's no guarantee that the tariff will be offered to new customers (to that tariff) at the same rate. If Agile/Tracker prices go up for anything other than a small blip, then I would have thought that the prices for new customers for fixed tariffs would go up too. So you probably need to be on the ball and ready to make a quick decision if your strategy involves switching to a fix. Any thoughts on this?

masonic

I suspect we'll see fixes respond first to any pressure on wholesale prices, and given that market is still looking rather disfuncional I have my doubts there will be anything attractive available in the wake of any change to price expectations. I wouldn't be tempted to take one up today, as I am still feeling quite optimistic about the next few months, though there is a chance that with the benefit of hindsight it could turn out to be a shrewd move.

Pat38493

mmmmikey said:

masonic said:

No doubt SVR would follow Tracker upward, but the lag could be a few months. As over 60% of my annual usage is between Nov-Feb inclusive, I'd be a lot more sensitive to very high prices during those months, even if it cost me later. I'm hoping that the historic data bears out that peaks are relatively short lived.

Much the same thinking here. I've given up polishing my crystal ball and put all my effort into monitoring the here and now, with a fully automated process in place to alert me if Agile becomes more expensive than Tracker or selected other tariffs. Agile has a worthwhile but not huge price advantage over Tracker for me at the moment and there's a big gap between Agile/Tracker and anything else. Maybe not much of a plan, but my thinking is that because the future is so unpredicatble it's best just to keep an eye on things and review the situation if Agile prices catch up with SVR etc.

Just one thought on switching to a fixed tariff, such as some of the Octopus smart TOU tariffs (like Cosy, I think?). Although the rates are fixed if you're already on the tariff there's no guarantee that the tariff will be offered to new customers (to that tariff) at the same rate. If Agile/Tracker prices go up for anything other than a small blip, then I would have thought that the prices for new customers for fixed tariffs would go up too. So you probably need to be on the ball and ready to make a quick decision if your strategy involves switching to a fix. Any thoughts on this?

This part is also our situation - we have neither solar nor batteries but my wife is at home most of the time and me for at least some week days each week, so we can load shift.  Agile or Tracker is much cheaper than any other tariff with our usage pattern at this moment.  Agile is marginally cheaper than tracker if you are on the ball.

The question is over how long should you measure price increases - as mentioned above, if you have saved several hundred pounds over the year so far, it's probably best not to panic and switch away just from a few days of bad pricing as you are still on a net gain over the year.  If I see more than a week or two of continuous prices that would work out higher than Go for me, that's when I will start considering the options.

The other thing about Agile vs Tracker is that for me at least, I tend to make a big saving on those days where there are several hours of very low pricing, and the saving gets slowly eroded by higher days, so you have to look at it over significant periods of time.

MarzipanCrumble

I am a 1 person household and a low user.  I am intrigued by Tracker.  I am not challanged by the cost of living rise.
A Fixed Tarrif from Octopus 

Daily standing charge	52.18p /day
Unit rate	27.45p /kWh
Early exit fee (For changing tariff or supplier)	£75

🔥 Gas

Daily standing charge	27.47p /day
Unit rate	7.05p /kWh
Early exit fee (For changing tariff or supplier)	£75

My estimated elec annual usage (from smart meter and manual readings over past year) = Estimated Annual Usage 1659.2 kWh  Gas = Estimated Annual Usage* 9542 kWh

Any comments?