Octopus Tracker

sjnexusmse

Doc_N said:
Energy prices could spike this winter forcing governments to step in and subsidise bills again, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

If the Chinese economy strengthens quickly and there is a harsh winter, gas prices could rise, putting pressure on consumers, Fatih Birol said.

Based on this, could it be a good idea to just switch electricity to tracker and keep gas flexible to lower the risk? Or is electricity also likely to spike

Doc_N

sjnexusmse said:

Doc_N said:
Energy prices could spike this winter forcing governments to step in and subsidise bills again, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

If the Chinese economy strengthens quickly and there is a harsh winter, gas prices could rise, putting pressure on consumers, Fatih Birol said.

Based on this, could it be a good idea to just switch electricity to tracker and keep gas flexible to lower the risk? Or is electricity also likely to spike

Not my field of expertise, I'm afraid.  There is obviously a link between the two, which some governments, including the UK, have been trying to break, but how strong that link will be next winter is anybody's guess.

Jumping onto Tracker at this late point has always involved a gamble, but this latest forecast might be seen as making it even more so. It is just a forecast, and it does require certain things to happen, but those things do look reasonably likely.

You can always get off Tracker of course, but by the time you do that you could have 'lost' quite a lot of money and decent fixes would probably be unavailable.  I'm tempted by the savings now, but in reality our energy spend at this time of the year is trivial by comparison with the winter, so the savings are trivial by comparison with the money lost in a spike.

Xbigman

sjnexusmse said:

Doc_N said:
Energy prices could spike this winter forcing governments to step in and subsidise bills again, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

If the Chinese economy strengthens quickly and there is a harsh winter, gas prices could rise, putting pressure on consumers, Fatih Birol said.

Based on this, could it be a good idea to just switch electricity to tracker and keep gas flexible to lower the risk? Or is electricity also likely to spike

To Quote myself from a few pages back.

There are risks with the Tracker tariff's where you might be on a high rate for an extended period. Being on both Gas and Electric Trackers increases that risk. Now with electric I can average down in the good months by enough to make it worthwhile even if I have a whole month at 100p a kwh. My gas usage however is only 1 unit a month in the main summer months so I can't average down in the same way. I expect that in a mild winter those on both will get a lower average than myself, whilst in a cold winter I would do better. I believe the phrase is 'hedging my bets'.


Darren

There are a lot of 'If's' in the report linked above that may not come to pass. But that doesn't mean they won't. Remember that wholesale prices, and therefore Tracker prices, lead the way up as well as down. It could be an uncomfortable run up to the 1st of January for Tracker customers. After the 1st of January the OFGEM cap is likely to even out with wholesale rates and then Tracker should lead the market down as winter ends. 


Darren

The_Green_Hornet

If you are going to get spooked every time a speculative negative headline is produced then maybe Octopus Tracker is not the tariff for you.

[Deleted User]

sjnexusmse said:

Doc_N said:
Energy prices could spike this winter forcing governments to step in and subsidise bills again, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

If the Chinese economy strengthens quickly and there is a harsh winter, gas prices could rise, putting pressure on consumers, Fatih Birol said.

Based on this, could it be a good idea to just switch electricity to tracker and keep gas flexible to lower the risk? Or is electricity also likely to spike

On many days during the Winter period, electricity produced from natural gas exceeds 50% of total generation. Electricity is priced on that is known as 'marginal pricing'. It follows that if wholesale gas prices rise due to a shortage of supply or a World event, then electricity prices will follow.

bristolleedsfan

Xbigman said:

sjnexusmse said:

Doc_N said:
Energy prices could spike this winter forcing governments to step in and subsidise bills again, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

If the Chinese economy strengthens quickly and there is a harsh winter, gas prices could rise, putting pressure on consumers, Fatih Birol said.

Based on this, could it be a good idea to just switch electricity to tracker and keep gas flexible to lower the risk? Or is electricity also likely to spike

. Remember that wholesale prices, and therefore Tracker prices, lead the way up as well as down. It could be an uncomfortable run up to the 1st of January for Tracker customers. After the 1st of January the OFGEM cap is likely to even out with wholesale rates and then Tracker should lead the market down as winter ends. 


Darren

 "It could be an uncomfortable run up to the 1st of January for Tracker customers" 

I fail to see the relevance of that date for Tracker customers
OFGEM observation period for cap level 1 January - 31 March 2024 will conclude during November 2023, any winter wholesale increase/spike after that observation period will only effect tracker customers.

[Deleted User]

bristolleedsfan said:

Xbigman said:

sjnexusmse said:

Doc_N said:
Energy prices could spike this winter forcing governments to step in and subsidise bills again, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

If the Chinese economy strengthens quickly and there is a harsh winter, gas prices could rise, putting pressure on consumers, Fatih Birol said.

Based on this, could it be a good idea to just switch electricity to tracker and keep gas flexible to lower the risk? Or is electricity also likely to spike

. Remember that wholesale prices, and therefore Tracker prices, lead the way up as well as down. It could be an uncomfortable run up to the 1st of January for Tracker customers. After the 1st of January the OFGEM cap is likely to even out with wholesale rates and then Tracker should lead the market down as winter ends. 


Darren

 "It could be an uncomfortable run up to the 1st of January for Tracker customers" 

I fail to see the relevance of that date for Tracker customers
OFGEM observation period for cap level 1 January - 31 March 2024 will conclude during November 2023, any winter wholesale increase/spike after that observation period will only effect tracker customers/not effect Ofgem cap related tariffs until 1 April at the earliest.

Agreed, but Capped customers might see the impact of any increase in wholesale prices in the following 2 quarters as a result of backwardation. Backwardation is Ofgem's way of allowing suppliers to recover some costs resulting from extreme market volatility in the hope that it will reduce the number of supplier failures. Previously, Ofgem took a 'swings and roundabouts' approach to wholesale market price changes within a given capped period.

bristolleedsfan

Dolor said:

bristolleedsfan said:

Xbigman said:

sjnexusmse said:

Doc_N said:
Energy prices could spike this winter forcing governments to step in and subsidise bills again, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

If the Chinese economy strengthens quickly and there is a harsh winter, gas prices could rise, putting pressure on consumers, Fatih Birol said.

Based on this, could it be a good idea to just switch electricity to tracker and keep gas flexible to lower the risk? Or is electricity also likely to spike

. Remember that wholesale prices, and therefore Tracker prices, lead the way up as well as down. It could be an uncomfortable run up to the 1st of January for Tracker customers. After the 1st of January the OFGEM cap is likely to even out with wholesale rates and then Tracker should lead the market down as winter ends. 


Darren

 "It could be an uncomfortable run up to the 1st of January for Tracker customers" 

I fail to see the relevance of that date for Tracker customers
OFGEM observation period for cap level 1 January - 31 March 2024 will conclude during November 2023, any winter wholesale increase/spike after that observation period will only effect tracker customers/not effect Ofgem cap related tariffs until 1 April at the earliest.

Agreed, but Capped customers might see the impact of any increase in wholesale prices in the following 2 quarters as a result of backwardation. Backwardation is Ofgem's way of allowing suppliers to recover some costs resulting from extreme market volatility in the hope that it will reduce the number of supplier failures. Previously, Ofgem took a 'swings and roundabouts' approach to wholesale market price changes within a given capped period.

I know that, maybe Xbigman can clatify what he meant by :

"It could be an uncomfortable run up to the 1st of January for Tracker customers" 

Being as posts he was replying to related to possible winter wholesale price spikes.

westv

Presumably there's no way of comparing what someone did pay on Tracker over the last 12 months compared to what they might pay for the next 12 months. 

CSI_Yorkshire

westv said:

Presumably there's no way of comparing what someone did pay on Tracker over the last 12 months compared to what they might pay for the next 12 months. 

Would you be comfortable with any prediction of the next 12 months wholesale prices?