Octopus Tracker

Doc_N

Xbigman said:

Everyone should be aware that the EPG skewed the figures for Tracker and Agile over the last year to the point they were no brainers. That's not true any more. If it goes like last year there were spikes in the electric price up near 80p a kwh and several multi week periods between 40p and 50p a kwh. Likewise there were several periods where the gas price was around 20p a kwh for weeks at a time. It was only the exceptionally mild end to winter that kept the price down during Feb and Mar. No one knows how it will go this coming winter. Hopefully it will be ok, but don't bet on it.


Darren

Well put. This has been an amazing deal over the last few months, but circumstances have changed and switching on 1 July takes a great deal of thought and courage. It may still prove advantageous, but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money. Particularly if you’ve been undecided for the previous few weeks and perhaps paying prices approaching those levels.

It’s a bit like the stock market. There’s a tendency for people to pile in late in the day after all the profits have been taken, but just before a crash. All it takes is one piece of bad news from Ukraine, the Middle East or somewhere else and there’s a huge unexpected energy spike which hits with immediate effect.

bristolleedsfan

Doc_N said:

Xbigman said:

Everyone should be aware that the EPG skewed the figures for Tracker and Agile over the last year to the point they were no brainers. That's not true any more. If it goes like last year there were spikes in the electric price up near 80p a kwh and several multi week periods between 40p and 50p a kwh. Likewise there were several periods where the gas price was around 20p a kwh for weeks at a time. It was only the exceptionally mild end to winter that kept the price down during Feb and Mar. No one knows how it will go this coming winter. Hopefully it will be ok, but don't bet on it.


Darren

 but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money. Particularly if you’ve been undecided for the previous few weeks and perhaps paying prices approaching those levels.

Tracker rates have never hit those levels previously thus I regard reference of rates could reach those levels  as purely hypothetical, also there is no precedent for tracker rates to go from anything like. current to tracker all time high levels within any degree of a short period of time including 2 weeks.

tlcgrantham

Both Electricity and Gas Tracker rates began to surge around this time last year in the heatwave.  Just maybe starting do the same now.  Be interesting to see how many take up their invitations come July 1st if the surge in wholesale prices continue. 

Doc_N

bristolleedsfan said:

Doc_N said:

Xbigman said:

Everyone should be aware that the EPG skewed the figures for Tracker and Agile over the last year to the point they were no brainers. That's not true any more. If it goes like last year there were spikes in the electric price up near 80p a kwh and several multi week periods between 40p and 50p a kwh. Likewise there were several periods where the gas price was around 20p a kwh for weeks at a time. It was only the exceptionally mild end to winter that kept the price down during Feb and Mar. No one knows how it will go this coming winter. Hopefully it will be ok, but don't bet on it.


Darren

 but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money. Particularly if you’ve been undecided for the previous few weeks and perhaps paying prices approaching those levels.

Tracker rates have never hit those levels previously thus I regard reference of rates could reach those levels  as purely hypothetical, also there is no precedent for tracker rates to go from anything like. current to tracker all time high levels within any degree of a short period of time including 2 weeks.

Everything's hypothetical when it comes to trying to predict energy price movements - unless you have a crystal ball.  They may reach those levels, they may not - nobody knows, and the past is no guide to the future.

It's not a question of whether they reach high levels within 2 weeks - the point is that it may take 2 weeks to get out of the tracker under the new tariff.  It used to be almost immediate.

bristolleedsfan

Doc_N said:

bristolleedsfan said:

Doc_N said:

Xbigman said:

Everyone should be aware that the EPG skewed the figures for Tracker and Agile over the last year to the point they were no brainers. That's not true any more. If it goes like last year there were spikes in the electric price up near 80p a kwh and several multi week periods between 40p and 50p a kwh. Likewise there were several periods where the gas price was around 20p a kwh for weeks at a time. It was only the exceptionally mild end to winter that kept the price down during Feb and Mar. No one knows how it will go this coming winter. Hopefully it will be ok, but don't bet on it.


Darren

 but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money. Particularly if you’ve been undecided for the previous few weeks and perhaps paying prices approaching those levels.

Tracker rates have never hit those levels previously thus I regard reference of rates could reach those levels  as purely hypothetical, also there is no precedent for tracker rates to go from anything like. current to tracker all time high levels within any degree of a short period of time including 2 weeks.

Everything's hypothetical when it comes to trying to predict energy price movements - unless you have a crystal ball.  

I now predict tracker electricity kWh rate might hit/soar to 30p- 32p kWh January 2024 during a cold spell as it did during January 2021. (prediction based on actual previous occurance)

as opposed to  "but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money"    based on possible situation rather than actual one.-  hypothetical 

Doc_N

bristolleedsfan said:

Doc_N said:

bristolleedsfan said:

Doc_N said:

Xbigman said:

Everyone should be aware that the EPG skewed the figures for Tracker and Agile over the last year to the point they were no brainers. That's not true any more. If it goes like last year there were spikes in the electric price up near 80p a kwh and several multi week periods between 40p and 50p a kwh. Likewise there were several periods where the gas price was around 20p a kwh for weeks at a time. It was only the exceptionally mild end to winter that kept the price down during Feb and Mar. No one knows how it will go this coming winter. Hopefully it will be ok, but don't bet on it.


Darren

 but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money. Particularly if you’ve been undecided for the previous few weeks and perhaps paying prices approaching those levels.

Tracker rates have never hit those levels previously thus I regard reference of rates could reach those levels  as purely hypothetical, also there is no precedent for tracker rates to go from anything like. current to tracker all time high levels within any degree of a short period of time including 2 weeks.

Everything's hypothetical when it comes to trying to predict energy price movements - unless you have a crystal ball.  

I now predict tracker electricity kWh rate might hit/soar to 30p- 32p kWh January 2024 during a cold spell as it did during January 2021. (prediction based on actual previous occurance)

as opposed to  "but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money"    based on possible situation rather than actual one.-  hypothetical 

The actual previous occurrence to which you refer was a long time before the Ukraine situation arose and caused serious supply shortages. It has no relevance today.

It’s all pure guesswork though, and if you can afford the potential consequences of a fortnight or more at gas and electricity rates more than three times higher than the current EPG, it may still be a risk worth taking. Each individual needs to make their own choice.

mmmmikey

bristolleedsfan said:

Doc_N said:

bristolleedsfan said:

Doc_N said:

Xbigman said:

Everyone should be aware that the EPG skewed the figures for Tracker and Agile over the last year to the point they were no brainers. That's not true any more. If it goes like last year there were spikes in the electric price up near 80p a kwh and several multi week periods between 40p and 50p a kwh. Likewise there were several periods where the gas price was around 20p a kwh for weeks at a time. It was only the exceptionally mild end to winter that kept the price down during Feb and Mar. No one knows how it will go this coming winter. Hopefully it will be ok, but don't bet on it.


Darren

 but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money. Particularly if you’ve been undecided for the previous few weeks and perhaps paying prices approaching those levels.

Tracker rates have never hit those levels previously thus I regard reference of rates could reach those levels  as purely hypothetical, also there is no precedent for tracker rates to go from anything like. current to tracker all time high levels within any degree of a short period of time including 2 weeks.

Everything's hypothetical when it comes to trying to predict energy price movements - unless you have a crystal ball.  

I now predict tracker electricity kWh rate might hit/soar to 30p- 32p kWh January 2024 during a cold spell as it did during January 2021. (prediction based on actual previous occurance)

as opposed to  "but you could face a whole fortnight of 30p per kWh gas and £1 per kWh electricity prices before you can escape, and in the winter that could be a lot of money"    based on possible situation rather than actual one.-  hypothetical 

@bristollleedsfan When you say "I now predict....etc." your prediction is based on the assumption that the situation in January 2024 will be the same as the situation in January. That is a possible situation rather than an actual one - i.e. we don't yet know what will happen in January 2024 - i.e. your prediction, based on your own definition is hypothetical. That is what @Doc_N is meaning by saying "Everything's hypothetical....etc."

So I'm not clear about the point you are making - are you actually agreeing with @Doc_N ?

The risks associated with Octopus Tracker will be different for different people. For some the impact of losing a few hundred pounds because they took the gamble and it didn't pay off will be small - maybe having to draw on savings, downscale holiday plans, etc. But for others the impact could be much higher. Losing a few hundred pounds on a gamble that didn't pay off could have serious financial implications such as having to move home and disrupt childrens education or having a house repossessed. The generally accepted wisdom is that you shouldn't gamble what you can't afford to lose.

It's true that you can mitigate against the risk of rising wholesale prices by switching to another tariff but it's also true that is a difficult decision to make which is one of the reasons gambling becomes addictive. Also, it depends on closely monitoring current and forecast prices and really understanding what the forecasts are based on. Are Cornwall Insights and similar organistions saying "as long as there are no unexpected shocks we expect xyz" or are they saying "we've looked at current geopolitical events and even if the war in Ukraine excalates unexpectedly (and so on) we don't expect prices to be effected"?

When you've made your assessment of the risk, how have you considered the possibility of unexpected price shocks?

 

To understand and accept the risks is one thing (and that's what I've done having recently switched to Agile) - to pretend they don't exist, or diminish them, is in my view, foolish to the extreme.

wakeupalarm

tlcgrantham said:

Both Electricity and Gas Tracker rates began to surge around this time last year in the heatwave.  Just maybe starting do the same now. 

Wholesale gas prices have doubled in the last 2 weeks.  And looking further ahead wholesale January prices are now above the level of the predicted January EPC.

Chrysalis

Gas tracker extended for year, so unlike agile this still has fixed term.

Rep who extended it claimed its on existing terms, although I believe they wrong as the links in the email which invited to me to request extending it showed much higher caps.

I wont know for sure until this one expires as my dash shows the old tariff details still, with current expiry, the fact the current expiry is shown I think means 99% chance rep got it wrong.

--

Further clarity, I replied to the email asking for extension on "existing terms", the reply word for word was.

Hello,

I hope you are having a wonderful day.

I have extended your Gas tracker tariff for another year on your existing terms.

If you have any further questions please don't hesitate to get in touch, we are always happy to help

Love and Power

Chrysalis

masonic said:

The comment in the MSE news article on Tracker that "Octopus has said its rates will likely double during the winter period, when demand for energy is much higher" is confusing.

There is no indication that the price cap is projected to rise to that level, but it surely would if wholesale prices rose significantly.

Having now made equal savings for a month using Agile, I am in two minds about switching to Tracker now it has become an option earlier than anticipated.

Last year prices were higher in summer than winter apart from a small spell in winter, Octopus text is a bit odd in my opinion, it seems they want to encourage people to not use their tracker tariffs, they also still have the message stating that currently rates are really expensive.