BMW X5 Diesel - Used or New - why so expensive do you think? + Pessimistic GFV

Grumpy_chap

DrEskimo said:

Sure, but your price differential is conflating the effect of EV Vs ICE, along with the difference in trim levels, optional extras and performance. 

As stated, what justifies the difference of thousands of pounds between the highest priced F-Pace and the lowest, if not performance, trim and optional extras?

By all means lament Jaguar for not having a slower, less optioned standard I-Pace, but your analysis that the difference between EV and ICE is purely down to the power train is biased by those other differences.

OK - even using your analysis, there is £6k saving between the F-Pace against the I-Pace in PCP over 4 years £10k miles / year.  I'll ignore the need to pick the fastest engine to match "performance" but accept the need to match trim levels.
The model numbering is so confusing I can't even find a 3.0 litre 6 cylinder petrol version.
F-Pace about 30 mpg, so 1,350 gallons at £6 = £8k.  The entire energy cost for the I-Pace needs to be below £2k.  I do not know whether that is realistic.
Logically, though, would the prospective buyer of the I-Pace not go for the PHEV F-Pace?

AdrianC

Grumpy_chap said:

The model numbering is so confusing I can't even find a 3.0 litre 6 cylinder petrol version.

P400 MHEV
S - £56k, SE - £59k, HSE - £63k

(P400e PHEV is 2.0 250ps + 150ps electric)

P/D = fuel
(number) = power
e = PHEV

DrEskimo

Grumpy_chap said:

DrEskimo said:

Sure, but your price differential is conflating the effect of EV Vs ICE, along with the difference in trim levels, optional extras and performance. 

As stated, what justifies the difference of thousands of pounds between the highest priced F-Pace and the lowest, if not performance, trim and optional extras?

By all means lament Jaguar for not having a slower, less optioned standard I-Pace, but your analysis that the difference between EV and ICE is purely down to the power train is biased by those other differences.

OK - even using your analysis, there is £6k saving between the F-Pace against the I-Pace in PCP over 4 years £10k miles / year.  I'll ignore the need to pick the fastest engine to match "performance" but accept the need to match trim levels.
The model numbering is so confusing I can't even find a 3.0 litre 6 cylinder petrol version.
F-Pace about 30 mpg, so 1,350 gallons at £6 = £8k.  The entire energy cost for the I-Pace needs to be below £2k.  I do not know whether that is realistic.
Logically, though, would the prospective buyer of the I-Pace not go for the PHEV F-Pace?

Yea it's a nightmare isn't it. If you go to the bottom of the engine choices, it's the very last one. It's called the P400.

Very reasonable to have energy costs lower than £2,000 over 40k miles. The I-Pace is not as efficient as other EVs so if you assume slightly lower 3.5miles/kWh, that's 11,428kWh of total energy. Charging loses are typically about 10% so would need to pull around 12,570kWh of energy in total.
Prices will vary, and will depend on how and when you charge, but if you can do all your charging at night on a EV tariff at £0.05/kWh, then that's about £630, but more realistically you will use a mixture of rapids now and again (again depends on use case) at around £0.30/kWh, and some peak electricity at £0.15/kWh. If you average £0.15/kWh that would be £1,885 in total.

Fair point about the PHEV. As Adrian points out, the SE is £59k with a GFV of £24,700, so that's £34.300. So about the same, but petrol costs would be lower. This could vary massively depending on use case. Some may get by mostly on EV only, whereas others with longer commutes may get worse economy if they regularly deplete the EV battery.

There is also VED to consider, which is £0 for the EV and £465 each year from years 2-4, so another £1,900 to factor in.

Grumpy_chap

TBH, it is quite shocking that these cars have PCP rates at about £1k / month and about £1 / mile.
It does set the expectations of what the future EV depreciation will be though.  If nothing else, driven down by the PCP's themselves.
I understand the comments that EV depreciation is virtually zero right now, but that has to change.  If I had bought the Jaguar I-Pace in my first example with the MGV at £27k then at the end of the PCP, Jaguar are being silly billies wanting any extra all for themselves, but a.n.other buyer will offer an extra £5k, I am going to take the £5k.  That buyer is then considering a car that costs £32k to acquire and sell priced accordingly for a comfortable profit, but could easily retail at £35k.  So the depreciation is now setting a market price.  Zero depreciation is gone.

DrEskimo

Grumpy_chap said:

TBH, it is quite shocking that these cars have PCP rates at about £1k / month and about £1 / mile.
It does set the expectations of what the future EV depreciation will be though.  If nothing else, driven down by the PCP's themselves.
I understand the comments that EV depreciation is virtually zero right now, but that has to change.  If I had bought the Jaguar I-Pace in my first example with the MGV at £27k then at the end of the PCP, Jaguar are being silly billies wanting any extra all for themselves, but a.n.other buyer will offer an extra £5k, I am going to take the £5k.  That buyer is then considering a car that costs £32k to acquire and sell priced accordingly for a comfortable profit, but could easily retail at £35k.  So the depreciation is now setting a market price.  Zero depreciation is gone.

Predicted residuals from PCP don't set the price, markets do. GFVs have been low for EVs for years now. My Renault Zoe had a GFV of £8k when it could be bought for £17k brand new discounted. 4yrs on and it's still worth around £13k. If you bought cash or on PCP the only difference was the interest charged.

Some have had rates of depreciation change due to changes in list price (Tesla have gone down, so people have lost out, or they have gone up like the Kona EV, so buyers have won) as well as changes in the PiCG. The Zoe has done well because it's a fairly capable EV at a low cost, where the discounts reduced as it got to the end of its life, and now the 52kWh is retailing at around £22k-25k, a 41kWh Zoe at £15k still remains a good buy, despite the increased range and updated interior.

I think cars like the E-Tron, I-Pace and i3 have faired less well though. But then when I look to buy something like a Tesla Model Y, I will be buying used as I always do to reduce the total cost. For me it's about researching and getting a good used model at the lower end of the market. Residual value will be what it will be....

Grumpy_chap

DrEskimo said:

My Renault Zoe had a GFV of £8k when it could be bought for £17k brand new discounted. 4yrs on and it's still worth around £13k. If you bought cash or on PCP the only difference was the interest charged.

Used EV prices are rather an oddity.
Last weekend I saw a 2016 Zoe advertised at £9k without batteries.  What use is that to man or beast?

DrEskimo

Grumpy_chap said:

DrEskimo said:

My Renault Zoe had a GFV of £8k when it could be bought for £17k brand new discounted. 4yrs on and it's still worth around £13k. If you bought cash or on PCP the only difference was the interest charged.

Used EV prices are rather an oddity.
Last weekend I saw a 2016 Zoe advertised at £9k without batteries.  What use is that to man or beast?

Funny thing is that when I was looking back 2yrs ago I looked at a 41kWh leased Zoe for.....£9,750!

Grumpy_chap

The one I saw 22kWh

gzoom

If saving money is your main concern have a look at eBikes. Mine is coming up to 10 months old, the battery has been charged 23 times to cover 1300 miles. Each full charge is 0.3kWh after charging losses, so just 7kWh needed to cover 1300 miles, or 185 miles per kWh.

So it'll cost barely £5 in electricity to do 10k miles on it interms of fuel costs. Add on to that no insurance costs, tyres are £20 each, £10 brake pads you can change at home, it makes any other forms of transport seem extortionate, plus you get fit

DrEskimo

Grumpy_chap said:

The one I saw 22kWh

Oh! Yea that's daft money.....just a dealer chancing their arm.....I originally had a new order on mine when I was giving up hope of finding a used model for a good price. £18,280 discounted with a couple of options. Dealers had them up pre-reg for £21k....