BITCOIN

Scottex99

Malthusian said:

Scottex99 said:

Nah. That's the whole point. You gonna tax a decentralised smart contract?

They already are. If I sell a decentralised smart contract for more than I paid for it CGT is payable.

Smart contracts dont have a value, the tokens that are moved within them do. And yep there would be CGT... if you declared it. Good luck finding all the people that use DEXs and privacy coins that aren't going to declare anything.

Scottex99

bugbyte_2 said:

adindas said:

Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger are too old to understand the AI, Block Chain, Genesis Technologies, Genomic Revolution and disruptive innovation and Technologies in order to appreciate them. But you should not be expecting your grandpas to understand or to have interest on this sort of things

I am sure WB et al. are very aware of what digital currency is and is not, and even if they don't understand it, they employ people who do.

What I find fascinating is the use of technical jargon  - Genomic Revolution - sounds important, would make me look foolish if I were to question what the hell mapping DNA has to do with me being able to hire a hitman without anyone noticing.

So cutting out all the 'disruptive innovation' (a new falafel wrap takeaway has disrupted the pizza market down my local high street by innovating a new food to these parts) what are we left with?

People use up enough electricity to power the Netherlands (that's bad btw) to create numbers which are mostly secure which other people will then pay money for.
Occasionally rich people called Elon manipulate the price of these numbers to make themselves even richer.
The whole system relies on people wanting to and being able to pay for these strings of numbers. People want to pay for these strings of numbers whilst the price is rising as they believe it will make them a lot of money. They can buy at the moment because the developed world governments let them, but this could of course change. Prices can also of course go down.

When stock markets crash they don't fall to zero because there are still companies making products and still paying dividends, so you still own something. Gold has 10,000 years of history behind it and you still get to walk around with a lot of bling when it crashes, and again, it isn't going to go to zero. If Bitcoin were to plummet - and there are lots of ways it could - what stops your Genesis Technologies (makers of outstanding home cinema apparently) being worth nothing?

Genuine question btw. Not trying to put anyone off Bitcoin.

Crypto is far from just being about BTC, but say it was....

If the network fails/gets hacks etc, could go to 0, no question. That hasn't happened since inception and I imagine there are a somewhat large amount of people trying their best to do it.

Forget dividends and "making products". My company is live on Crowdcube right now and have raised over £1m in a week. We don't "make" anything. We help people trade fiat to crypto and vice versa. We will build an app too but that's not the point really.

On the gold point, imo BTC is just digital gold now with more volatility. It's easier to store, transfer and is divisible. Plus it's valuable. (Today and even more so over the years imo). Same reasons that make gold valuable, also apply to BTC. Well maybe you can't wear it on your neck, granted.

It already dropped near enough 50% of it's value in May after a massive run up from Christmas. If you've been in the space a while even that barely makes you flinch as we have always just gone and made new ATHs anyway, every single time. Fixed supply of 21m BTC and potentially infinite demand = ? USD.

Same way you're not trying to put anyone off, I'm not trying to convince anyone either. You either get it you don't. And if you don't you either are slightly curious as to what this new weird and wonderful asset class is... or you're not.

Ta 

Scottex99

Section62 said:

Scottex99 said:

Ask people from Venezuela, Argentina, Zimbabwe if it's nonsense when the local gov either stops you getting access to your bank and all your savings or hyperinflation erodes your savings so badly that they become worthless anyway.

Not a 1st world problem of course, but that's the need.
 

But is the answer to that 'need' going to be something relying on technology the (local) government can switch off, or stop you getting access to, just as easily as stopping you going to your bank?

Being immune to hyperinflation is great, but not much use if you can't buy food because the comms networks are 'down for essential maintenance' - e.g. at the insistence of the local army commander or other officials.

Not arguing that the need doesn't exist, just that something placing yourself at possibly greater risk of the whims of government doesn't sound like the right solution.

Valid point but no government can stop BTC or "turn off" crypto. They can't.

They can make it difficult at the on/off ramps, for example blocking me taking cash from Coinbase to my bank or forcing banks to not give me a mortgage because I once sent £50 to Binance in 2018.

But they can't stop me sending BTC to any wallet in the world.

Could they make it very difficult for companies in the space? Yes. Can they stop everything when they want? No. There's already protocols worth hundreds of millions built by anonymous devs. DAOs is going to be a big play too in the future...

adindas

bugbyte_2 said:

I am sure WB et al. are very aware of what digital currency is and is not, and even if they don't understand it, they employ people who do.

Well, I have no doubt they employ people who understand about Cryptos and the technologies behind it. But by the end of the day, if you are the one makes the decision you will need to have sufficient interest and knowledge to make the final decision. There is no (if any) evidence where WB & CM have got involved in the cryptos conference or debate where their knowledge has been demonstrated.

But you should not expect the Grandpas of 90yo+ to have interest to learn or want to know a bit deeper about disruptive innovation and Technologies.

What is not sensible here is that when you expect the people in their 90+ perform the same with when they were in their prime. People have shown the blunder they have made when selling Airlines Stocks and some of Banking Stocks Amid Coronavirus. Here is just one Example:

Warren Buffett Sells Airline Stocks Amid Coronavirus: ‘I Made a Mistake’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-sells-airline-stocks-amid-coronavirus-i-made-a-mistake/?sh=629a4b845c74

bugbyte_2 said:

What I find fascinating is the use of technical jargon  - Genomic Revolution - sounds important, would make me look foolish if I were to question what the hell mapping DNA has to do with me being able to hire a hitman without anyone noticing.

So cutting out all the 'disruptive innovation' (a new falafel wrap takeaway has disrupted the pizza market down my local high street by innovating a new food to these parts) what are we left with?

I mention this to show of WB & CM lacking of interest not only cryptos and block chain but also other disruptive innovation/technology such as gene editing/ mapping which are predicted by many other experts and billionaires will grow enormously (if not the fastest) in the next decades. They do however know well with the companies like Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz, American Express, Apple, Bank of America.The companies like these perform well before the fourth industrial revolution.

When stock markets crash they don't fall to zero because there are still companies making products and still paying dividends, so you still own something. Gold has 10,000 years of history behind it and you still get to walk around with a lot of bling when it crashes, and again, it isn't going to go to zero. If Bitcoin were to plummet - and there are lots of ways it could - what stops your Genesis Technologies (makers of outstanding home cinema apparently) being worth nothing?

Genuine question btw. Not trying to put anyone off Bitcoin.

Mind to mention which index fund went to zero during the market crash ??

I will avoid the discussion getting dragged to investing in Gold vs Cryptos or other assets. Many people are investing in various assests as a mean of hedging.

As I mention before Robots or even ordinary Investors like you and I could do better just by doing almost nothing just by throwing money into S&P 500 and forget it.

Did you watch two videos posted in this thread? These come from people who understand from both side not just investing but also the technological aspects, so could make a good judgement of where they are going in the future.

bugbyte_2

"Mind to mention which index fund went to zero during the market crash ??"

None. Index funds are a basket of stocks that follow a theme or location, and are passively managed. Unless the rapture is upon us there is more chance the entire population of West Bromwich will be flattened by falling refrigerators* than the FTSE 100 or any other index falling to zero, as there are a hundred companies in the index.  

* Since 1978, 37 deaths have been recorded in the USA from falling refrigerators. 

"you and I could do better just by doing almost nothing just by throwing money into S&P 500 and forget it."

YES. That exactly.

"Did you watch two videos posted in this thread?"

No. they looked cheesy.

Any promotion made by people who have a vested interest is going to be ramping. BC may well go to $100,000 this year but it wont get there because people believe in the technology or because its a great way to carry out transactions. It will get there because ordinary investors will push from the bottom which only works whilst there are ordinary investors willing to do this. As soon as there is a large sell off the market will collapse just like any other market, the difference being there is no underlying value to stop it falling completely.

Scottex99

Any promotion made by people who have a vested interest is going to be ramping. BC may well go to $100,000 this year but it wont get there because people believe in the technology or because its a great way to carry out transactions. It will get there because ordinary investors will push from the bottom which only works whilst there are ordinary investors willing to do this. As soon as there is a large sell off the market will collapse just like any other market, the difference being there is no underlying value to stop it falling completely.

Lol, is that a fact?

So it will "fall completely" to what? Zero?

I have no problem coming back on here in 2 years and proving you wrong. Or 2 months or 200 months actually. You pick the timeline if you want

bugbyte_2

You or I do not know what it may fall to. To quote Yahoo Finance:

• June 2011: -99%
  In 2011, Bitcoin hit the big time when it soared from $2 to more than $32, achieving parity with an ounce of silver. Then the bottom fell out. On June 19, Mt. Gox — the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world by far — admitted that criminals had hacked hundreds of accounts and stole millions of dollars worth of Bitcoins. In a single day, the value of a Bitcoin fell to one penny.

• August 2012: -56%
  In August 2012, the public learned that a classic Ponzi scheme updated for the digital age had been bilking crypto investors for months. Promising incredible returns of 7% weekly interest, the culprit — later charged, convicted, fined and imprisoned — had stolen 700,000 Bitcoins by deception.

• April 2013: -83%
  In April 2013, Bitcoin became a victim of its own success as investors piled on to the exciting new opportunity that was buzzing in the mainstream media. Trading was so intense that Mt. Gox couldn’t handle the volume, and when it crashed, hackers attacked the vulnerability. It forced Mt. Gox into an unprecedented total shutdown, sending prices from nearly $260 to $50.

• December 2013: -50%
  When China banned Bitcoin at the end of 2013, it lost 50% of its value overnight, according to the Guardian. China’s relationship with cryptocurrency remains turbulent and the country continues to add new restrictions today.

• December 2017-December 2018: -84%
  2017 was a landmark year for Bitcoin, which broke all its own records and peaked near $20,000. Then, on Dec. 27, it all came crashing down as investors harvested gains from what was an obvious bubble and sent the price cratering below $12,000. The cryptocurrency would remain in the doldrums throughout 2018, as major hacks in Korea and Japan — as well as rumors that those countries were planning to ban Bitcoin — sent already skittish investors looking for the exits.

• March 2020: -50%
  The pandemic did not spare Bitcoin, and when the markets crashed in March 2020, the Bitcoin market crashed even harder. Bitcoin lost half its value in two days. Over a month, it fell from above $10,000 in February to below $4,000 in March.

• May 2021: -53%
  In April, Bitcoin was the talk of the investing world as it roared past an astonishing $64,000 for a single coin. Then, in a flash, $1 trillion in value was wiped off the global crypto market in a single week. First, Elon Musk went back on a promise to accept Bitcoin as a payment for Tesla cars. Then, China announced yet another crypto crackdown. Finally, the public learned about the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining and crypto investors found themselves in a familiar position — at the mercy of forces beyond their control

I don't understand why you think I am wrong. If crypto only has market sentiment as underlying value, and market sentiment can change very, very quickly as demonstrated above, or just be manipulated by big players, or can be wiped out by hackers, or wiped out by government intervention, then there is no underlying value to stop it falling to zero. I didn't say it would, just that it can.

You appear to believe in its infallibility - good for you! 

Scottex99

Ha, yahoo. Put the pump figures next to it too. It’s all irrelevant as it makes new ATHs after each dip anyway.

Why is it just market sentiment? It’s store of value, it’s the scarcity, it’s decentralised network, it’s the ability to transfer with no authority in the middle, it’s the option to store assets off grid, yada yada yada. The price is actually one of the least interesting things about it. 

But yeah it’s going up against USD regardless. You say 0, I say 100k, let’s see how we do. Imo it’s never going below 20k ever again never mind 0

worldtraveller

IMHO, we're now in the Jean-Paul Rodrigue's 'Return to Normal' phase of the classic asset bubble!

File:Stages of a bubble.png - Wikimedia Commons

Good luck to all those that probably still just don't get it!

What maybe concerns me more than anything else, are the, mainly young, inexperienced, social meeeeedya led investors, especially those that got in 'late', who still believe that any investment will continue to rise, forever! But, like us all, it will be a learning curve going forwards, for some a shock!

GLA!

Adyinvestment

Bitcoin is worth whatever people will pay for it - exactly the same as any share, and S&P 500 companies now have an average expected lifespan of less than 20 years and plenty go to 0.

The thing with Bitcoin is it is right at the beginning (in my opinion) and the adoption rate is staggering, I am betting on Bitcoin being around far longer than Apple...unless they put Bitcoin on their balance sheet!