BITCOIN

zagfles

Scottex99 said:

zagfles said:

Scottex99 said:

Hexane said:

But Scott, for those of us that found this interesting, it's all a bit quiet. What should we do now? Keep searching dead threads like this one? Or do I need to sign up to "podcasts and newsletters" to follow what you guys are up to?

tbh I've just sunk another 10K in an HSBC fund.

Yeah I don’t mind keeping it going, just can’t be bothered with all the arguments like last time.

Even though I’ve worked in Crypto since 2018, the bear markets are boring and I tend to cut out the newsletters and podcasts, but I’m back in them now, haha.

It’s pretty interesting to see the psychology.

”oh it’s dead, it’s going to 0”
”wait a sec it’s come back a bit”
”it’s doing pretty well now”
”I can’t believe I didn’t buy loads at the bottom, please will it go down in price so I can buy more”

Yeah really interesting psychology, here's another, although it probably doesn't fit the narrative

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78167059/#Comment_78167059

Strange, I never feel the need to do or say anything like that with any of my investments, or potential investments, regardless how well or badly they've done. Why don't other investments have the same psychology I wonder.

It’s a forum to talk about investments, some might have strong opinions, incorrect or not.

It’s cyclical in nature, just the stock market but on a shorter timeframe. 2017, 2021 and soon to be a likely bullrun in 2025 - due to the 4 year halvening events. All you can do is try to learn more from each one.

People also tend to gloat or brag if they are in the minority of being right on something speculative. I’ll try to keep mine to a minimum when BTC rips next year 😉

I've done well on speculative stuff, also done badly on others, but I never feel the need to gloat, brag, or even cry about any of it. I never feel the need to make predictions about my investments on internet forums either. Somehow bitcoin is different. Very strange that.

I also never feel I've missed out if a speculative investment which I turn down does really well. Any more than if a mate wins a 50-1 shot on the horses. They took a gamble, they won, good for them. I wasn't prepared to take the gamble. I never feel I've lost out because I didn't do the same.

Good luck to everyone, whatever you're investing in. But beware of anyone who makes any predictions about anything unpredictable. Particularly using carefully selected statistical information. Just google a graph, then you see the level of volatility and risk, and then you may start to question why social media is full of people who only want to give one side of the story...

Qyburn

boingy said:

Comparing Bitcoin with shares is not a sensible approach.
You should compare Bitcoin with other, more traditional, currencies. People invest in Dollars, Pounds and Euros. Just like Bitcoin, none of those things are real. 

I don't see how Bitcoin can be both a currency and an investment. To be a currency it needs a stable and predictable value.

mooneysaver

zagfles said:

Scottex99 said:

zagfles said:

Scottex99 said:

Hexane said:

But Scott, for those of us that found this interesting, it's all a bit quiet. What should we do now? Keep searching dead threads like this one? Or do I need to sign up to "podcasts and newsletters" to follow what you guys are up to?

tbh I've just sunk another 10K in an HSBC fund.

Yeah I don’t mind keeping it going, just can’t be bothered with all the arguments like last time.

Even though I’ve worked in Crypto since 2018, the bear markets are boring and I tend to cut out the newsletters and podcasts, but I’m back in them now, haha.

It’s pretty interesting to see the psychology.

”oh it’s dead, it’s going to 0”
”wait a sec it’s come back a bit”
”it’s doing pretty well now”
”I can’t believe I didn’t buy loads at the bottom, please will it go down in price so I can buy more”

Yeah really interesting psychology, here's another, although it probably doesn't fit the narrative

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78167059/#Comment_78167059

Strange, I never feel the need to do or say anything like that with any of my investments, or potential investments, regardless how well or badly they've done. Why don't other investments have the same psychology I wonder.

It’s a forum to talk about investments, some might have strong opinions, incorrect or not.

It’s cyclical in nature, just the stock market but on a shorter timeframe. 2017, 2021 and soon to be a likely bullrun in 2025 - due to the 4 year halvening events. All you can do is try to learn more from each one.

People also tend to gloat or brag if they are in the minority of being right on something speculative. I’ll try to keep mine to a minimum when BTC rips next year 😉

I've done well on speculative stuff, also done badly on others, but I never feel the need to gloat, brag, or even cry about any of it. I never feel the need to make predictions about my investments on internet forums either. Somehow bitcoin is different. Very strange that.

I also never feel I've missed out if a speculative investment which I turn down does really well. Any more than if a mate wins a 50-1 shot on the horses. They took a gamble, they won, good for them. I wasn't prepared to take the gamble. I never feel I've lost out because I didn't do the same.

Good luck to everyone, whatever you're investing in. But beware of anyone who makes any predictions about anything unpredictable. Particularly using carefully selected statistical information. Just google a graph, then you see the level of volatility and risk, and then you may start to question why social media is full of people who only want to give one side of the story...

Not really a bet on the horses when as Scott has explained anyone investing now is guaranteed to make money come 2025 due to the halvening

zagfles

mooneysaver said:

zagfles said:

Scottex99 said:

zagfles said:

Scottex99 said:

Hexane said:

But Scott, for those of us that found this interesting, it's all a bit quiet. What should we do now? Keep searching dead threads like this one? Or do I need to sign up to "podcasts and newsletters" to follow what you guys are up to?

tbh I've just sunk another 10K in an HSBC fund.

Yeah I don’t mind keeping it going, just can’t be bothered with all the arguments like last time.

Even though I’ve worked in Crypto since 2018, the bear markets are boring and I tend to cut out the newsletters and podcasts, but I’m back in them now, haha.

It’s pretty interesting to see the psychology.

”oh it’s dead, it’s going to 0”
”wait a sec it’s come back a bit”
”it’s doing pretty well now”
”I can’t believe I didn’t buy loads at the bottom, please will it go down in price so I can buy more”

Yeah really interesting psychology, here's another, although it probably doesn't fit the narrative

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78167059/#Comment_78167059

Strange, I never feel the need to do or say anything like that with any of my investments, or potential investments, regardless how well or badly they've done. Why don't other investments have the same psychology I wonder.

It’s a forum to talk about investments, some might have strong opinions, incorrect or not.

It’s cyclical in nature, just the stock market but on a shorter timeframe. 2017, 2021 and soon to be a likely bullrun in 2025 - due to the 4 year halvening events. All you can do is try to learn more from each one.

People also tend to gloat or brag if they are in the minority of being right on something speculative. I’ll try to keep mine to a minimum when BTC rips next year 😉

I've done well on speculative stuff, also done badly on others, but I never feel the need to gloat, brag, or even cry about any of it. I never feel the need to make predictions about my investments on internet forums either. Somehow bitcoin is different. Very strange that.

I also never feel I've missed out if a speculative investment which I turn down does really well. Any more than if a mate wins a 50-1 shot on the horses. They took a gamble, they won, good for them. I wasn't prepared to take the gamble. I never feel I've lost out because I didn't do the same.

Good luck to everyone, whatever you're investing in. But beware of anyone who makes any predictions about anything unpredictable. Particularly using carefully selected statistical information. Just google a graph, then you see the level of volatility and risk, and then you may start to question why social media is full of people who only want to give one side of the story...

Not really a bet on the horses when as Scott has explained anyone investing now is guaranteed to make money come 2025 due to the halvening

 

OK I'm sure you're taking the p, but just in case not, or anyone else reading doesn't understand basic market fundamentals...

Any known future event will already be priced into the current market price. If the market knows or even anticipates a future event which is likely to increase price or demand, the price will have already risen to account for it. 

So no, there is no guarantee whatsoever. Unless you know something that no-one else does.

Scottex99

Haha, not sure if you're winding me up or not. No guarantees in investing ofc.

ETFs coming, Halvening coming. Institutional money and then retail, COULD mean a big bullrun into 2025.

Some of it will be priced in already and macro landscape looks weird, recession coming in the US... Good for BTC? Not quite sure at the moment

Scottex99

Qyburn said:

boingy said:

Comparing Bitcoin with shares is not a sensible approach.
You should compare Bitcoin with other, more traditional, currencies. People invest in Dollars, Pounds and Euros. Just like Bitcoin, none of those things are real. 

I don't see how Bitcoin can be both a currency and an investment. To be a currency it needs a stable and predictable value.

I heard a good description last week.

There's big B bitcoin which is the price (what takes 90% of the attention of most people).

Then there's little b bitcoin which is the network, the blockchain and the core product and developers etc. Not my strong suit as I'm not techy.

But, I think because of inflation and typically any fiat money not surviving much more than 100 years, there's a narrative that Bitcoin could become the global settlement layer for finance. 

A bit far fetched imo but they are two separate things, yes.

Qyburn

Scottex99 said:

Qyburn said:. 

I don't see how Bitcoin can be both a currency and an investment. To be a currency it needs a stable and predictable value.

I heard a good description last week.

There's big B bitcoin which is the price (what takes 90% of the attention of most people).

Maybe an example would help explain what i mean about currency. Let's say I'm selling my house, and with Bitcoin at £55k I se the price at offers over 6 BTC.  Selling a house could take a few months, during which Bitcoin price could vary wildly. I might find nobody will offer because Bitcoin has risen so much my house isn't worth 6 BTC. Or dropped to the extent that I'd be giving it away.

Alternatively I could set the price in £, but accept payment in Bitcoin. That's using it as a payment method, not as a currency. 

Scottex99

Yep, I get that. What the bitcoin maximalists will say is sometime in the future, you won't need to price it in £ because that person will just pay you 6 BTC, and then you'll do all your other spending in BTC with no need for conversion.

i.e 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

We're not there yet of course so settling invoices or paying bills (to a fixed fiat amount) doesn't really make sense unless it's a small instant transaction.

You do still see it from time to time, people buying houses or cars etc.

What's happening in the payments infrastructure for the companies that do invoice/settle in crypto, they are using stablecoins, mainly USDT and USDC.

Qyburn

Scottex99 said:

You do still see it from time to time, people buying houses or cars etc.

The only context I've seen where someone asked for payment in Bitcoin without also quoting a real-world currency equivalent was ransomware scammers. I haven't followed that industry accurately enough to know if they're treating Bitcoin as an absolute reference, or adjusting their price to more or less track £ (or $). I suspect the latter.

mooneysaver

zagfles said:

mooneysaver said:

zagfles said:

Scottex99 said:

zagfles said:

Scottex99 said:

Hexane said:

But Scott, for those of us that found this interesting, it's all a bit quiet. What should we do now? Keep searching dead threads like this one? Or do I need to sign up to "podcasts and newsletters" to follow what you guys are up to?

tbh I've just sunk another 10K in an HSBC fund.

Yeah I don’t mind keeping it going, just can’t be bothered with all the arguments like last time.

Even though I’ve worked in Crypto since 2018, the bear markets are boring and I tend to cut out the newsletters and podcasts, but I’m back in them now, haha.

It’s pretty interesting to see the psychology.

”oh it’s dead, it’s going to 0”
”wait a sec it’s come back a bit”
”it’s doing pretty well now”
”I can’t believe I didn’t buy loads at the bottom, please will it go down in price so I can buy more”

Yeah really interesting psychology, here's another, although it probably doesn't fit the narrative

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78167059/#Comment_78167059

Strange, I never feel the need to do or say anything like that with any of my investments, or potential investments, regardless how well or badly they've done. Why don't other investments have the same psychology I wonder.

It’s a forum to talk about investments, some might have strong opinions, incorrect or not.

It’s cyclical in nature, just the stock market but on a shorter timeframe. 2017, 2021 and soon to be a likely bullrun in 2025 - due to the 4 year halvening events. All you can do is try to learn more from each one.

People also tend to gloat or brag if they are in the minority of being right on something speculative. I’ll try to keep mine to a minimum when BTC rips next year 😉

I've done well on speculative stuff, also done badly on others, but I never feel the need to gloat, brag, or even cry about any of it. I never feel the need to make predictions about my investments on internet forums either. Somehow bitcoin is different. Very strange that.

I also never feel I've missed out if a speculative investment which I turn down does really well. Any more than if a mate wins a 50-1 shot on the horses. They took a gamble, they won, good for them. I wasn't prepared to take the gamble. I never feel I've lost out because I didn't do the same.

Good luck to everyone, whatever you're investing in. But beware of anyone who makes any predictions about anything unpredictable. Particularly using carefully selected statistical information. Just google a graph, then you see the level of volatility and risk, and then you may start to question why social media is full of people who only want to give one side of the story...

Not really a bet on the horses when as Scott has explained anyone investing now is guaranteed to make money come 2025 due to the halvening

 

OK I'm sure you're taking the p, but just in case not, or anyone else reading doesn't understand basic market fundamentals...

Any known future event will already be priced into the current market price. If the market knows or even anticipates a future event which is likely to increase price or demand, the price will have already risen to account for it. 

So no, there is no guarantee whatsoever. Unless you know something that no-one else does.

These aren't basic markets. There is a halvening every few years