BITCOIN

aaj123

Quietest period seen in a long time for Bitcoin market (and Ethereum) with exceptionally low volatility. 

My take - as has been the case so often before, some super returns will be on the table from here in a two year time frame or so but as usual the refrain then from most will be that folks who bought in 2023 got lucky with their gamble. 

Malthusian

3 year volatility of FTSE World: 12.3
3 year volatility of FTSE Conventional Gilts Index: 10.2
3 year volatility of MSCI World Small Cap: 14.2
3 year volatility of Bitcoin: 72.01

The future of extremely low volatility!

My take - as has been the case so often before, some super returns will be on the table from here in a two year time frame or so but as usual the refrain then from most will be that folks who bought in 2023 got lucky with their gamble. 

And the folks who buy their bags in 2025 and pay for their super smashing returns with their losses? "Paper hands, didn't do their research, shouldn't have invested money they couldn't afford to lose, etc."

Where have I heard this before? Oh right, two years ago in this very thread. What happened then? To shreds you say. And their risk-free 10%pa interest on stablecoins? To shreds you say.

aaj123

Malthusian said:

3 year volatility of FTSE World: 12.3
3 year volatility of FTSE Conventional Gilts Index: 10.2
3 year volatility of MSCI World Small Cap: 14.2
3 year volatility of Bitcoin: 72.01

The future of extremely low volatility!

My take - as has been the case so often before, some super returns will be on the table from here in a two year time frame or so but as usual the refrain then from most will be that folks who bought in 2023 got lucky with their gamble. 

And the folks who buy their bags in 2025 and pay for their super smashing returns with their losses? "Paper hands, didn't do their research, shouldn't have invested money they couldn't afford to lose, etc."

Where have I heard this before? Oh right, two years ago in this very thread. What happened then? To shreds you say. And their risk-free 10%pa interest on stablecoins? To shreds you say.

So don't buy our bags...But nevertheless they will get bought. Its fundamentally the nature of a scarce asset and how the market for the same behaves. It cannot but be any other way. Cause any amount of buying however gradual reduces the amount left for sale and will cause unreasonable spikes. Its a feature not a bug.

This is what we mean by saying that folks who cannot see this natural progression just don't understand. Or rather that 'few understand'!

Qyburn

aaj123 said:

My take - as has been the case so often before, some super returns will be on the table from here in a two year time frame or so but as usual the refrain then from most will be that folks who bought in 2023 got lucky with their gamble. 

That would be correct wouldn't it? If the price rises as you predict, the big winners will be those who haven't held Bitcoin before so didn't suffer from previous losses. Or people who time the market by their Bitcoin when the price is high, waiting for the price to plummet before buying back in.

People doing that don't want a stable value, or consistent growth, they need volatility with big drops as well as big rises.

aaj123

Qyburn said:

aaj123 said:

My take - as has been the case so often before, some super returns will be on the table from here in a two year time frame or so but as usual the refrain then from most will be that folks who bought in 2023 got lucky with their gamble. 

That would be correct wouldn't it? If the price rises as you predict, the big winners will be those who haven't held Bitcoin before so didn't suffer from previous losses. Or people who time the market by their Bitcoin when the price is high, waiting for the price to plummet before buying back in.

People doing that don't want a stable value, or consistent growth, they need volatility with big drops as well as big rises.

Nope. Very different for me who just buys regularly with fixed fiat amounts without so much as looking at the price. Don't care about volatility or spikes at all, only about accumulating a stack of scarce asset that by nature will become more valuable over time. 

Malthusian

aaj123 said:

Don't care about volatility or spikes at all

Apart from the massive spike "in a two year time frame or so" that makes you rich overnight, of course.

aaj123

Malthusian said:

aaj123 said:

Don't care about volatility or spikes at all

Apart from the massive spike "in a two year time frame or so" that makes you rich overnight, of course.

Ofcourse I will take it when it comes. Why wouldn't I? But as one of the 'few who understand', it will merely be a tactical action to sell on the spike and then reaccumulate in the ensuing crabby period. 

mooneysaver

Markets are currently predicting a 66% chance of the next halvening happening in 2023; which explains most of the current position.

DannyCarey

I have been meaning to post this here for the last week or so...

Confession time... I have been selling my Bitcoin throughout the last number of months and I have approx 25-30% of it left. This is not the first time that I have bought and sold bitcoin. However it may soon be my last. 

The slightly comical thing is that most recently I have sold Bitcoin and spent that money on 100% guaranteed deprecating assets, such as a lovely new TV, a sound system and other home theatre technology, amongst other home improvement things to the immediate benefit of my family. 

Bitcoin investing to me has always been the "fun" / WGAF portion of earned income (I am mostly investing in FTSE Global All Cap Index, boring!). A small (but certainly not insignificant) percent of money each month was thrown into Bitcoin. Selling recently and buying this stuff which my family love feels like a win over a long wait of "maybe it will go up again" and I'll have even more fun money that I am not making any meaningful use of. 

Over the last 2 years, I got really sucked into the Bitcoin matrix. I read approx a dozen books on the subject and listened to endless podcasts, which was exciting and deeply fascinating, as many books and podcasts go deep with philosophical debates and a deep investigation on how the world economy works. I felt like I knew something others didn't, or simply could not see. 

There is no doubt some brilliant innovation going on by bitcoin core developers, as a techie, I can appreciate it. I bought the cold card and learned how to put bitcoin into cold storage. So secure and pretty amazing, but at the same time, its a faff and so easy to screw it all up if you are not super careful. There's just no way that would work or be acceptable to modern society.

I started to lose interest in all honesty. Was it all a play thing? It didn't feel like it at the time. 

Over time, I noticed the same conversations and points from the "bitcoin thought leaders" go round and round in circles. I observed the defensiveness and censoring that went on for anyone who raised questions / "FUD" that didn't go along with the agreed narrative.

This thread maybe had some of that too, although now I seem to be on the other side of the fence, and that's ok. I don't mind being wrong, as long as I end up in the right place.

The biggest champions of bitcoin are on twitter every day parroting the same stuff, trying to promote it because they need to promote it. Their retirement depends on it. It's scary how many of of these people seem to be all in. Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme, as there is no central figure running it, but it absolutely needs new money piling in to keep the price up. 

A few months ago, I took the decision to disconnect from all blogs, YouTube videos, tweets and just about anything to do with Bitcoin to have a mental break. I was consuming far too much and I knew it was not healthy.

In that time I didn't miss it, or seek it out and now I am debating whether to sell the remaining BTC or wait and see if it goes up a bit more.... I don't know if I can be arsed to wait to the halving. I genuinely wonder if 60k is the absolute top, it happened when we were all locked up during covid and bored. Maybe that is its run. Old me would say you don't understand bitcoin, but I know I do. I understand very well the value proposition, I just don't think it can defeat any large government fiat currency, as depressing as that sounds, we are all stuck on that hamster wheel of inflation for the foreseeable. 

Note I have been wrong and will be again, many times, so Bitcoin could very well moon again... 

I could have just disappeared and said nothing but I thought I might as well be honest and post this for no other reason but to tell people to be careful... 

mooneysaver

Does anyone have an up to date rainbow chart? I thought we'd moved back into accumulate territory but just want to check my calculations