BITCOIN

TimSynths

benbay001 said:

Scottex99 said:

I'd never say never but at this stage with big corps getting in and JPM, Citi etc etc all having a look I'd say highly unlikely now.

Wait, what? JPM and Citi are holding crypto?

Citi weighs launching crypto services after surge in client interest | Financial Times

onomatopoeia99

TimSynths said:

benbay001 said:

Scottex99 said:

I'd never say never but at this stage with big corps getting in and JPM, Citi etc etc all having a look I'd say highly unlikely now.

Wait, what? JPM and Citi are holding crypto?

Citi weighs launching crypto services after surge in client interest | Financial Times

No doubt one of the investment experts on here will be along to tell us that Citigroup are cultists.

User232002

Notepad_Phil said:

I'd be interested to know why you think this is impossible.

The US Government can lever a lot (and I mean a lot) of power over non-US companies so could essentially ban any financial company from allowing access to it - so without those banks etc how do you put your money into crypto or get it out again?

Theoretically you could keep it in crypto and e.g. buy a tesla, but what happens when tesla's bank says sorry but you can't accept crypto anymore or the stock market regulator says we'll have to delist you if you continue to accept crypto.

And yes there might be a very small percentage of trade that continues, but I'd say that this is going to be much closer to a real ban than what happened with the ban on alcholhol during Prohibition.

Whether the US government would ever want to do this I've no idea, but the idea that it would be impervious to a concerted US government action does not tally with the facts.

They could try, but it would never succeed over a long term timeframe.

Sure, you can target fiat on and off ramps, but you cant stop Bitcoin unless you're willing to turn off the internet. I was around in 2006 when the US attempted to ban payments to gambling sites via the UIGEA. These transactions move through banks and payment intermediaries like Neteller and Paypal. It was a colossal failure; people have been able to gamble online from the US throughout the whole time period. If they can't regulate payments made within a system that they have full control of and sight within - how on earth are they going to stop a global network that they have no authority over?

Firstly, who says you would want to take your money out of crypto if there was a ban? If the US government made an attempt to ban bitcoin, its basically a tacit admission that its a direct competitor to the dollar and that the dollar is losing (too quickly). This is an advertising campaign for Bitcoin being hard money the likes of which would have never been seen before, which is exactly why Bitcoin trades at a higher price (compared to spot) in every country that has 'banned' it so far. Reducing or restricting trade (as you've described) doesn't make anyone better off. Trade is a tide that raises all boats and is a positive sum game. The optics of this also would not sit well when your entire countries narrative is built on the strength of a free market. The success of Bitcoin is really a story about the loss of trust in fiat currencies, and a government trying to enforce their currency by force tends to be the nail in the coffin to that story, not the reversal of fortune.

Secondly, innovation doesn't happen in large institutions. Banks aren't innovators due to their size, which is exactly why they have all been crushed for the last decade. Financial innovation is happening in the crypto world. Its faster, cheaper, more egalitarian and the elimination of rent seeking intermediaries means network users can accumulate that value instead. If a country wants to ban itself from that then they can go right ahead, but banning yourself from technological innovation is a strategy that will undoubtedly leave you poorer, especially relatively so when other countries embrace it instead. Imagine how well off the UK, or any country, would be right now if we decided to ban ourselves from the internet in 2000.

Thirdly, the US government has, as previously mentioned, shown itself to be anti market crashes since 2008. Whatever you want to say about Bitcoin, there is a considerable amount of US wealth locked up in it right now. Attempting to wipe out that level of wealth is going to cause some consequences for you politically (at a time when the US political scales are very finely balanced no less). I'm not just talking about the amount of wealth that is actually held in digital assets either; Coinbase is currently valued at $60B and would essentially be nuked by such regulation. Then there are the multiple mining companies and early adopters like Silvergate. More pertinently, there has been a shift over the last 6 months towards large institutions suggest to make Bitcoin 1-5% of your portfolio. The people who use these institutions are high net worth individuals, like politicians & lobbyists. Nobody votes to make themselves poorer.

Fourthly, how do you think people are going to react to this? You're a young idealistic Comp Sci graduate with significant crypto assets and currently working for a Defi startup in the US and the government moves to ban it - whats your play? You're probably under 30 and have no wife or kids. My play would be to take my assets and skills to a more crypto-friendly country. So now in order to ban it, you really need a large cabal of countries to come along with you. This comes with two problems; (i) the worlds governments have not shown themselves to be able to co-operate well historically, (ii) as soon as you build a large cohort of countries that aim to ban it, the 'prize' for those that choose not to becomes bigger and harder to resist, therefore any alliance is inherently an unstable solution to the problem. This is probably best expressed with China and Russia, who do not seek to be the reserve currencies of the world, but they definitely don't want the US to continue to enjoy this 'exorbitant privilege' either. 

Look, I think the fed is a cumbersome dinosaur but Yellen, Powell et al aren't stupid. They know all this and they know that any attempt to ban it wouldn't work. They also know about the Triffin dilemma and that reserve currency status is both a privilege and a burden that can not last forever. The people who continue to believe banning it is a thing tend to be people who overestimate the governments power, ability and willingness. Even though I might agree with it from a moral POV, the war on drugs has been going on for 50 years now and is nothing more than a colossal failure economically.

User232002

HansOndabush said:

Bitcoin could go to any price $100K, $1m, anything which still would not prove it isn't just a bubble and might go to $0

Ah, and now the intellectual integrity becomes apparent. You've basically put your fingers in your ears and nothing we can say, however true, will change your mind.

Anti-Bayesian thinking is not a recipe for success in any walk of life.

deejaybee

Hi again,

I opened up a Coinbase account yesterday early evening ( including uploading passport ) and this morning i still cannot buy.

I dont know whether its because the document verification takes a certain amount of time ?  If i click on "buy/sell" i get the pop up requesting driving license / passport etc upload, but i have already done this, i am concerned that if i upload passport again, it will confuse things even more.  I can log in and out fine, and have verified debit card.

Anyone had similar issues ?

Scottex99

steampowered said:

Scottex99 said:

Nobody took me up on this before, lets have a bet. BTC is closer to $100k than $0. You pick the timeframe and the amount. £1/£10/£100/£1000, whatever you want. Loser pays the other's charity.

Let's at least make it fun for me to prove you wrong, which I will. Or better yet, Bitcoin will 

If you are so confident that you know what will happen to the price of bitcoin, why don't you put your money where your mouth is and short it? 

Read the thread, I'm about as long as it gets

Scottex99

benbay001 said:

Scottex99 said:

I'd never say never but at this stage with big corps getting in and JPM, Citi etc etc all having a look I'd say highly unlikely now.

Wait, what? JPM and Citi are holding crypto?

Lol, and it all starts making sense....

Do you think we just make stuff up? Everyone with half a brain has/is going to try to buy BTC

Scottex99

HansOndabush said:

Bitcoin could go to any price $100K, $1m, anything which still would not prove it isn't just a bubble and might go to $0

Hahaha, well thats pretty fckn boring and we need a timescale to have this bet too.
By 01/01/2023 if BTC hasn't gone to $0, you pay my charity £1k, I do the same for you if it does

Scottex99

deejaybee said:

Hi again,

I opened up a Coinbase account yesterday early evening ( including uploading passport ) and this morning i still cannot buy.

I dont know whether its because the document verification takes a certain amount of time ?  If i click on "buy/sell" i get the pop up requesting driving license / passport etc upload, but i have already done this, i am concerned that if i upload passport again, it will confuse things even more.  I can log in and out fine, and have verified debit card.

Anyone had similar issues ?

Maybe just a timing thing? I'll DM you another option

benbay001

Scottex99 said:

benbay001 said:

Scottex99 said:

I'd never say never but at this stage with big corps getting in and JPM, Citi etc etc all having a look I'd say highly unlikely now.

Wait, what? JPM and Citi are holding crypto?

Lol, and it all starts making sense....

Do you think we just make stuff up? Everyone with half a brain has/is going to try to buy BTC

Nope, i just wanted a link to an article that spelt out that actually, JPM and Citi arent buying crypto, but are actually simply offering crypto as an investment vehicle to clients. A whole world of difference.
No different really than them offering clients soy bean futures. It doesnt mean they are bullish on the futures of soybeans.

Scottex99 said:

HansOndabush said:

Bitcoin could go to any price $100K, $1m, anything which still would not prove it isn't just a bubble and might go to $0

Hahaha, well thats pretty fckn boring and we need a timescale to have this bet too.
By 01/01/2023 if BTC hasn't gone to $0, you pay my charity £1k, I do the same for you if it does

Make the date 2033, and the target price no higher than it is today. Id take that.