BITCOIN

Malthusian

Philosophical question: which would be the most accurate source for information about how the universe came into existence? 
1) r/creationism
2) r/creationistsaredumblol
"Well clearly it's r/creationism, because how could people who just hate on and make fun of others all day be a credible source?"

Frequentlyhere

In this case, I think the reddit poster didn't ideally want to post in the "let's perpetually take the P out of BTC" subreddit, and does have his own far less popular subreddit to view things from a more considered (but still overwhelmingly critical) angle, but ultimately r/buttcoin has a huge number of people who know a lot about it.

It also wouldn't be an option to post on any other pro-BTC reddit, because any dissent from a positive view of BTC results in immediate banishment from the cult subreddit.

But as I've pointed out, if one had actually tried the thread (Danny!) you'll see it's actually quite an indepth and considered exchange with various voices who clearly know what they're talking about. It's not just one crackpot voicing off.

Frequentlyhere

Anyway @DannyCarey I had a look at your website. The 5YO, the 25YO and the FAQ.

It may be buried there somewhere, but I haven't yet seen any reference to any of the very specific issues pointed out by the thread I posted. Or indeed any issues whatsoever, funnily enough!

I mean, just to focus on one element - if for example, it's just not true that LN fails 99% of all transactions over $200, or about a third of the time for any transaction, then that surely needs to feature in an FAQ. Or is this just buttcoiners talking total BS?

edit: OK, I took the next step and actually searched for some of the issues alongside your website creator. I found this pro bitcoin website article.

It's an old article, but (my bold)

"CasaHODL engineer Jameson Lopp, meanwhile countered the criticism saying that the max allowed payment value is currently only around $250 since the network is still in beta.  He added:

The difficulty in making payments over $100 is by design (for safety) and easily changed when developers are confident in the robustness of the network.

Despite the rapid growth of available channels on mainnet Lightning, the likelihood of seeing success for a payment past a certain amount is slim, says Diar quoting Reddit data. In other words, the Lightning Network in its current state can only guarantee a 100% success for transactions no bigger than three cents.

As the source material subsequently noted in an update, the chances of “spending a coffee” successfully between two nodes is around 70%"

Which is exactly what the reddit thread is claiming is the case today, so I assume they're actually right?

Question is,  if it's "easily changed", and it's been 5 years, why on earth haven't they changed it?

silvercue

January was a good month for BTC and Feb is looking decent so far too.  I like.  

Scottex99

I asked one of my traders what he thought and:

[11:12, 16/02/2023]  Equities have been doing well, FED is still raising but expectations is that they will be done with hikes in the next few months. So the market thinks peak rates/bearish conditions will be hit by summer, in which case buying here seems like good value while we are still well off ATH’s. Something bad could still happen in macro and drop us quickly, but I don’t think that would take us sub $10k on BTC or anything.

[11:15, 16/02/2023] There is still a !!!!!! ton of liquidity in the system compared to pre-covid. And the other thing is, who is left to sell? The retail noobs are all rekt or out of the market. Degens are day trading like always. Smart big players are probably net buyers here rather than sellers. So I’d be surprised if we see new lows. 40k BTC by EOY is possible if nothing breaks in Tradfi.

[11:16, 16/02/2023] Loads of cool stuff coming out on-chain as well. Arbitrum has cool stuff being built on it, zkRollups are coming soon, lots of new L1’s etc.

Not entirely sure why it pumped 10% last night but $25K looks decent for now

DannyCarey

Malthusian said:

Philosophical question: which would be the most accurate source for information about how the universe came into existence? 
1) r/creationism
2) r/creationistsaredumblol
"Well clearly it's r/creationism, because how could people who just hate on and make fun of others all day be a credible source?"

Probably neither - things are not always just so black and white.... Both Bitcoin and Buttcoin subs have plenty of contributors who speak with many inaccuracies. 

Malthusian

The retail noobs are all rekt or out of the market. Degens are day trading like always. Smart big players are probably net buyers here rather than sellers. 

What happened to the once-in-a-generation chance for the little man (= retail noobs) to get rich and beat the greedy bankers (= smart big players)? Trader bro is saying that even if Bitcoin goes to $400k, almost nobody in the real world will be buying a Lambo because they've already been dumped off the money train. If the "retail noobs" have largely given up and cut their losses it certainly tallies with the deadness of this thread. 

The big crypto exchanges trading points between each other and extracting real money from the degens may be a profitable niche, but hardly the "Internet 2.0" and "unprecedented returns far in excess of anything on offer in the traditional finance world" that this thread started with. 

(The statement "there is an exclamation-ton of liquidity in the market" has very different meanings depending on whether "liquidity" is defined as "real money" or "real money plus stablecoin monopoly money".)

DannyCarey

Malthusian said:

The retail noobs are all rekt or out of the market. Degens are day trading like always. Smart big players are probably net buyers here rather than sellers. 

What happened to the once-in-a-generation chance for the little man (= retail noobs) to get rich and beat the greedy bankers (= smart big players)? Trader bro is saying that even if Bitcoin goes to $400k, almost nobody in the real world will be buying a Lambo because they've already been dumped off the money train. If the "retail noobs" have largely given up and cut their losses it certainly tallies with the deadness of this thread. 

The big crypto exchanges trading points between each other and extracting real money from the degens may be a profitable niche, but hardly the "Internet 2.0" and "unprecedented returns far in excess of anything on offer in the traditional finance world" that this thread started with. 

(The statement "there is an exclamation-ton of liquidity in the market" has very different meanings depending on whether "liquidity" is defined as "real money" or "real money plus stablecoin monopoly money".)

270 pages in a couple of years would suggest this thread isn't dead. You are also one of the more regular posters on here, keeping it relevant, which is amusing, given you never have anything positive to say about Bitcoin...

Johnjdc

Scottex99 said:

Not entirely sure why it pumped 10% last night but $25K looks decent for now

Insofar as the price of Bitcoin goes up and down for any rational reasons rather than being a roulette wheel, it went up last night because some of the largest MtGox creditors (from the crypto fraud/scam/theft era three cycles ago before crypto frauds and scams went mainstream) agreed to take their bankruptcy recovery in bitcoins rather than in cash, reducing the number the administrators will have to liquidate for fiat.

DannyCarey

It could be a multitude of things. It might be mean reversion. FTX doesn't exist anymore (filed bankruptcy with 0 bitcoin. but billions in bitcoin liabilities)... i.e. they were suppressing the price by selling customer BTC and making people buy fake IOUs.